INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 28, 2020, 8:06 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, September 28, 2020 



10:30 AM ET. September Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous 8.0)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 3.1)



Tuesday, September 29, 2020  



7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position



8:30 AM ET. August Advance Economic Indicators Report



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.9%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.1%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)



9:00 AM ET. July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices



                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)



                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)



                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)



                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)



10:00 AM ET. September Consumer Confidence Index



                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 89.9; previous 84.8)



                       Expectation Idx (previous 85.2)



                       Present Situation Idx (previous 84.2)



3:15 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.7M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -7.7M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.1M)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,351.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,351.24. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 9,702.96.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading  later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3362.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the July 24th low crossing at 3193.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3362.28. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3524.50. First support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3049.78.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends this month trading range. The low-range he stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 173-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-18. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 178-17. First support is the September 10th low crossing at 175.00. Second support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16.



December T-notes were lower overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above September's high crossing at 139.290 would renew the rally off August's low. Closes below the September 4th low crossing at 139.000 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



November crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.42 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $38.87 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $36.58. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.42. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.05. First support is September's low crossing at $36.58. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.54.  



November heating oil was slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets  the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $103.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.55. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $122.81. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 108.97. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $103.63.  



November unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $124.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $113.17 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $121.42. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $124.62. First support is September's low crossing at $106.60. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $105.01.    



November Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last- week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 3.002 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.700 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 2.928. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.002. First support is September's low crossing at 2.496. Second support is the July 31st low crossing at 2.404.      



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33 is the next upside target. Closes  below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 92.75. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.



The December Euro was higher in overnight trading as it consolidated some of last-week's downside breakout of the July-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.20. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $116.31. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42. 



The December British Pound was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3019 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.2502 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3019. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it rebounded off the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0968 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0922. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0968. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679.



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.74. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.55. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at  73.72.



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0946 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0969 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 0.0963. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0969. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0948. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0946. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $1841.50. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $1768.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1942.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1904.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1925.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $1841.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $1768.30.  



December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage  for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower  prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day  moving average crossing at $26.208 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.053. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.208. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $21.810. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953. 



December copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.0313 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last-week's decline, August's low crossing at 2.7960 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3.1210. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is August's low crossing at 2.7960. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.7220. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at $3.51 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.84 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $3.79 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.84 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $3.62 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.51.      



December wheat was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $5.78 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $5.24. 



December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.59 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $5.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4. First support is the September 15th low crossing at $4.63 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.59 3/4.          



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 15th low crossing at $5.22 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the March 27th high crossing at $5.69 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. Second resistance is the March 27th high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the September 15th low crossing at $5.22 1/2. Second support is the August 24th low crossing at $5.19 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If November renews this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $10.46 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.93. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at $9.64 1/4.  



December soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $335.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $354.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $348.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $354.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $335.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $326.00.   

   

December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.14 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 33.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. Second resistance is last-December's high crossing at 36.41. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.14. Second support is August's low crossing at 30.29.

 

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 28, 2020, 11:32 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Increase in rain forecasts for coffee country is pressuring coffee this morning.


Perfect harvest weather for grains........but corn won't stay lower.


Front month, Oct contract of ng expires today. Cold snap this week dialed in, then milder week 2 but weather not a major factor.