KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, September 30, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 776.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +6.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 317.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3579.8)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.7%)
8:15 AM ET. September ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +600000; previous +428000)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected -31.7%; previous -31.7%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected -2.0%; previous -2%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -11.7%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -1.8%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -1.5%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous -28.5%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous -1%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous -34.1%)
9:45 AM ET. September ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 51.9; previous 51.2)
10:00 AM ET. August Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Board closed meeting
10:00 AM ET. August-September Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 122.1)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +3.2%; previous +5.9%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +15.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 494.406M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected +0.8M; previous -1.639M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 227.499M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -0.7M; previous -4.025M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 175.942M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -1.1M; previous -3.364M)
Refinery Usage (expected 74.4%; previous 74.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.439M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.412M)
3:00 PM ET. August Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -4.9%)
N/A U.S. fiscal year ends
N/A Deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown, as the fiscal year ends
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 were lower overnight as investors were unnerved after a chaotic and messy presidential debate, and rising coronavirus cases. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,263.83 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13 is the next downside target. First resistance the September 10th high crossing at 11,554.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 9,702.96.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3347.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the July 24th low crossing at 3193.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3347.20. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3524.50. First support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3049.78.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this month trading range. The mid-range he stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 173-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-16. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 178-17. First support is the September 10th low crossing at 175.00. Second support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16.
December T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above September's high crossing at 139.290 would confirm an upside breakout of this month's trading range while renewing the rally off August's low. Closes below the September 4th low crossing at 139.000 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 138.185. First resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends last-week's trading range.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $38.87 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $36.58. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.33 would open the door for a possible test of August's high crossing at $44.05. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.33. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.05. First support is September's low crossing at $36.58. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.54.
November heating oil was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $103.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 18th high crossing at $118.58 are needed to renew the rally off September's low. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $118.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $122.13. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 108.97. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $103.63.
November unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $113.17 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of September's low crossing at $106.60. If November resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $124.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $121.42. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $124.62. First support is September's low crossing at $106.60. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $105.01.
November Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's huge decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 2.348 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.748 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 2.928. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.002. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 2.464. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 2.348.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 92.75. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.
The December Euro was lower in overnight trading as it the short covering rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $116.31. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42.
The December British Pound was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3023 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.2502 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3023. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0951 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0894. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0951. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.56. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.55. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0946 would confirm that a double top with July's high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0951 are needed to signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0963. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0969. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0946. Second support is September's low crossing at 0.0940.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the short covering rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1954.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1901.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1926.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1851.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40.
December silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.810 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.466. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.810. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $21.810. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953.
December copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0279 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last-week's decline, August's low crossing at 2.7960 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.1210. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.9135. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.7960.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at $3.51 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.84 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $3.79 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.84 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.60 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.51.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $5.78 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.37. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $5.24.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.61 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $5.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4. First support is the September 15th low crossing at $4.63 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.61.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 15th low crossing at $5.22 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the August 24th low crossing at $5.19 1/4. If December renews the rally off August's low, the March 27th high crossing at $5.69 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. Second resistance is the March 27th high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the September 15th low crossing at $5.22 1/2. Second support is the August 24th low crossing at $5.19 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as they extend the decline off September's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.94 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If November renews this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $10.46 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.94 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at $9.64 1/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at $327.70 is the next downside target. If December renews this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $354.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $348.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $354.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $327.70. Second support is the September 16th low crossing at $317.90.
December soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.10 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. Second resistance is last-December's high crossing at 36.41. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.10. Second support is August's low crossing at 30.29.
Thanks tallpine!
USDA report at 11 am today.
Weather is great for harvesting.