INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 2, 2020, 8:11 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, October 2, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter GDP by State



8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +800K; previous +1371K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 8.2%; previous 8.4%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.47)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.11)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.37%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.8%; previous +4.65%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.6)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +344K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +1027K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 61.7%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



9:45 AM ET. September ISM-NY Report on Business



                       Business Index (previous 42.9)



10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)



                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +6.4%)



                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +5.6%)



                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +2.1%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M%



                       Durable Goods, M/M%



10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 79.0; previous 74.1)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 68.5)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.1%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 82.9)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 were sharply lower overnight after President Donald Trump announced that he and the first lady have tested positive for coronavirus. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 12,444.75 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13 is the next downside target. First resistance the overnight high crossing at 11,406.75. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,444.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 9,702.96.



The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the July 24th low crossing at 3193.20 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the September 16th high crossing at 3412.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 16th high crossing at 3412.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3524.50.  First support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3049.78.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends September's trading range. The mid-range he stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 173-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-12. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 178-17. First support is the September 10th low crossing at 175.00. Second support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16.



December T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the August-October trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above September's high crossing at 139.290 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while renewing the rally off August's low. Closes below the September 4th low crossing at 139.000 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 138.185. First resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



November crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Oil prices were hit by news that President Donald Trump said he has contracted coronavirus adding to concerns about rising worldwide cases of the disease reducing demand for the commodity.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below September's low crossing at  $36.58 would renew the decline off August's high. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is  the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.19. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.05. First support is September's low crossing at $36.58. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.54.  



November heating oil was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $103.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 18th high crossing at $118.58 are needed to renew the rally off September's low. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $118.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.41. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 108.97. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $103.63.  



November unleaded gas was sharply lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $113.17 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of September's low crossing at $106.60. If November resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $124.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $121.42. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $124.62. First support is September's low crossing at $106.60. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $105.01.    



November Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it this week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 2.348 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.705 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 2.928. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.002. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 2.464. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 2.348.      



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 92.75. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.



The December Euro was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.87. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $116.31. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42. 



The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3031 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.2502 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3031. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0939 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0940. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0981. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679. 



The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rebound off Wednesday's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.49. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.55. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72.



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0947 would confirm that a double top with July's high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0950 are needed to signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0963. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0969. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0947. Second support is September's low crossing at 0.0940. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was slightly higher overnight as it extends the short covering rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1954.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes  the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1923.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1954.30. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1851.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40.  



December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.465 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.465. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.232. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $21.810. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953. 



December copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 2.7960 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0177 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.1210. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.8345. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.7960. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $3.60 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline  crossing at $3.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $4.10 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.60 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.51.      



December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at $5.99 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.38 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.99 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.38 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $5.24. 



December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.83 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.15 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $4.69 1/2. Second support is the September 15th low crossing at $4.63 1/4.         



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extended the decline off Wednesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the March 27th high crossing at $5.69 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the September 15th low crossing at $5.22 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the August 24th low crossing at $5.19 1/4. First resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. Second resistance is the March 27th high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the September 15th low crossing at $5.22 1/2. Second support is the August 24th low crossing at $5.19 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were lower overnight as they consolidate some of this week's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $9.85 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is September's high crossing at $10.46 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $9.85 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at $9.64 1/4.  



December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $354.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $331.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $349.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $354.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $331.80. Second support is the September 16th low crossing at $317.90.   

   

December soybean oil was lower overnight marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past seven days. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.30 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. Second resistance is last-December's high crossing at 36.41. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 30.29.



Comments
By metmike - Oct. 2, 2020, 10:39 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Great harvest weather for grains.

Massive, drought denting rains in Brazil for coffee..........maybe not far enough west for the dry Central Brazil bean country.


                South America Oct/Nov 2020            

                            8 responses |               

                Started by metmike - Oct. 1, 2020, 8:35 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59680/


Coffee:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56557/


Bearish week 2 temps for natural gas.


WX Fri:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59689/


NG

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59561/