Market reaction to election results
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Started by metmike - Oct. 12, 2020, 10:13 p.m.

Here’s how traders think the markets will react to the U.S. election, according to one broker’s survey

By far the worst scenario for the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500         SPX,        +1.64%,       would be no clear winner, according to this survey. The best scenario would be a re-election of Trump with a Republican Senate. Everything else would be a languid shrug.



On the bond side, the possibility of increased fiscal stimulus from a Democratic sweep would lift the yield on the 10-year Treasury         TMUBMUSD10Y,        0.757%       the most. By contrast, yields would fall sharply without a clear winner, with investors rushing to the safety of bonds.

 The possibility of a contested election has analysts looking at the election of 2000, as well as the less recent 1876 contest. 

By metmike - Oct. 12, 2020, 10:16 p.m.
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2000 redux? Stock-market election fears have traders revisiting Bush-Gore battle



As fears of a contested presidential election rise, investors are taking a look at how the market behaved during the closest precedent — the 2000 Florida recount battle between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush.


The chart above tracks the performance of the S&P 500         SPX,        +1.64%       from Election Day, which fell on Nov. 7, through Dec. 15. Over that period, the S&P 500 saw ups and downs, declining 8.4%.

By metmike - Oct. 12, 2020, 10:17 p.m.
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  As America votes, traders look to profit on the volatility


Chris Matthews,



  Longer-horizon managers will delay decisions based on the midterm election’s unpredictable effect on the U.S. economy

By metmike - Oct. 12, 2020, 10:18 p.m.
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Dow jumps 262 points on gains in Apple Inc., Goldman Sachs shares

By TimNew - Oct. 13, 2020, 5:46 a.m.
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I think the market is expecting a Biden win.  The Senate is a bit of a wild card.

If Trump wins and the pubs hold the senate, we'll see a spike across the board in equities.

The one thing the market fears more than anything else is a contested election.  "Let us know what we're dealing with and we'll deal with it".   

By metmike - Oct. 13, 2020, 12:23 p.m.
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