NG 10/14+
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Started by WxFollower - Oct. 14, 2020, 6:26 p.m.

 It was cited in news stories that one of reasons NG is down so sharply today (in addition to warmer forecasts) is that LNG production restart is still delayed due to Hurricane Delta if I read that correctly. News stories have been saying something similar after nearly all Gulf storms are in the process of making landfall. As I said before, NG has been going up in advance of some (most or all?) of the Gulf storms this season due to worry about Gulf production reductions but then has been falling during or immediately after the storm arrives due to worry about LNG export slowdowns. When combined with bearish power outages as well reduced AC needs, the net effect has generally been neutral to bearish. So, why did NG rise in advance of each storm? That makes no sense to me. Discounting in advance of the storms given the reason? If so, the discounting should mean a slight drop in price in advance rather than a rise in price. It makes no sense.

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Re: NG 10/14+
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By metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 6:50 p.m.
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Great points Larry!

Since trading in any day or series of days is based almost entirely on speculation by speculators that can cause major short term moves in one direction based on just minor information(when the fund type day traders take on a herd/mob mentality/pile on in the same direction), maybe they are still trading shut ins and the bearish mentality for a period of time.

As a guy who has followed/traded ng for 2 decades, you remember vividly in the old days that the threat of a major hurricane in the GOM(before exporting business existed) could cause incredible short term moves...........always to the upside when the threat of a major hurricane ramped up. 


This was mostly because it was during the time before fracking and most of the production came from the GOM back then. 

With just a few exceptions, those that featured notable structural damage to the facilities in the GOM, the price would come back to earth after the hurricane passed. 

I know that when I see a hurricane threat, like this last one, I still think of shut ins before anything else from remembering the old days.


I'm sure that  you vividly remember this one in 2008. I think I remember you keeping us posted on changes in shut in production for months:


Hurricane Ike News and Projections


https://www.rigzone.com/news/hurricanes/ike.asp



By metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 6:54 p.m.
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Thanks for starting a new ng thread Larry!


Previous post on natural gas:

                NG 9/27            

                            48 responses |              

                Started by MarkB - Sept. 28, 2020, 12:21 a.m.            https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59561/


I'll try to add some fundamental stuff to this thread shortly. 


By metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 6:55 p.m.
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NGI after the close on Wednesday:

LNG Recovery Doubts, Warmer Weather Drag Natural Gas Futures Prices 20-Plus Cents Lower

 

Natural gas futures tanked Wednesday as news of a sunken barge in the Calcasieu Ship Channel squashed hopes for a quick resumption in full exports from the Cameron liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility. Another warmer shift in the latest weather data and higher production also worked in favor of bears. The November Nymex contract settled… 

   October 14, 2020

By metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 6:57 p.m.
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NG rig count barely above record lows still.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs


By metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 6:59 p.m.
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There are 2 natural gas seasonal graphs below.

The top one is very updated....1999-2019.  The one below that is thru 10 years ago, 1991-2009. 

They are almost identical thru early August............then really deviate tremendously!

What are some things we might learn from this? I would appreciate Larry and others chiming in with views.

1.  Spring is an extraordinarily strong time frame for NG prices.......always has been. Something like 19 out of 20 years up for some embedded time frames.

2. Despite it being so dependable, in 2020 COVID caused the opposite to happen in unprecedented fashion. 

3. Late June, thru July is the weakest period of the year historically. We started that period this year, with near record heat and CDD's being added to the weather forecast making it MORE bullish than the seasonal pressure.

4. That support gave way in early/mid July with the heat dialed in and the forecasts cooling off.

5. The August seasonal has apparently changed in the last 10 years. Used to be very weak and a continuation of the weak July(maybe it was hurricane premium coming out, when most of the production was coming from the Gulf).  The more recent seasonal is nuetral for August. 

6. Then, we have both graphs lining up together with Sept and Oct being very strong months historically. 

7. Then, we have huge divergence which is very surprising to me based on what I "thought" which might be a bias. 

I always remember November as being my most profitable month in the 1990's and it was always picking the October high and being short in November. I remember lots of Halloweens, trick or treating with the kids and having an especially fun time checking price quotes on the short positions.  However, we had some very mild Novembers in the late 1990's too. ...so it makes sense.2 The 2009 seasonal shows that. However, the 2019 seasonal shows the complete opposite. The biggest difference of the year between these 2 graphs. November from the 2019 graph actually has the greatest % increase of any month. WOW!

Before commenting more, I will still  need to look at HDD data for November to see if the Novembers from 2010-2019 were that much colder than the Novembers from 1991-1999 that they replaced on the 20 year chart. Memory tells me yes. Recent Halloweens for me......now trick or treating with the GRAND kids have featured everybody bundled up. Last Thanksgiving featured some major cold. 


https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart  

2000-2019 seasonal below

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/futures/FUTURE_NG1.PNG



http://www.equityclock.com/charts/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart/

Natural Gas Futures (NG) Seasonal Chart 

The above chart represents the seasonality for Natural Gas Futures (NG) Continuous Contract for the past 19 years.

  • Date range: January 1, 1991 to December 31, 2009 
  • Type: Commodity Futures – US 
  • Symbol: NG 

Any comments are appreciated.

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 7:02 p.m.
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https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Last week:  Actual75B   Forecast73B     Previous76B    

          

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

        

                                 

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Oct 15, 2020 10:30 55B75B
Oct 08, 2020 10:3075B73B76B
Oct 01, 2020 10:3076B79B66B
Sep 24, 2020 10:3066B78B89B
Sep 17, 2020 10:3089B79B70B
Sep 10, 2020 10:3070B68B35B


By metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 7:03 p.m.
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  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending October 2, 2020   |  Released: October 8, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: October 15, 2020 

                                                                                                                                         

          +75 BCF........an initial small spike higher says a bit bullish but it was close to the average guess, even a bit higher.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(10/02/19)
5-year average
(2015-19) 
Region10/02/2009/25/20net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East893  872  21  21   846  5.6  852  4.8  
Midwest1,062  1,033  29  29   999  6.3  979  8.5  
Mountain236  231  5  5   202  16.8  209  12.9  
Pacific318  316  2  2   295  7.8  310  2.6  
South Central1,322  1,304  18  18   1,047  26.3  1,088  21.5  
   Salt366  358  8  8   226  61.9  268  36.6  
   Nonsalt955  945  10  10   820  16.5  819  16.6  
Total3,831  3,756  75  75   3,387  13.1  3,437  11.5  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,831 Bcf as of Friday, October 2, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 75 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 444 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 394 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,437 Bcf. At 3,831 Bcf, total working gas is  above the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

 

By metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 7:05 p.m.
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7 day temps for tomorrow's EIA report. Chilly East, Very Warm West. 


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20201009.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 7:15 p.m.
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         Temperature forecasts will determine to a large extent where we go from here and any technical formations on the charts can quickly be obliterated if the weather pattern shifts to something different than what the market traded the previous day(s).

However, this one described below, from Sunday/Monday was unusually powerful for signaling  trading on Tuesday/Wednesday and unless the weather turns colder again, it will be tough for natural gas to negate this gap and crap, meaning that the highs might be in. 

Turning colder and negating the gap and crap formation is very possible though and I am no way predicting that the highs are in. 

  Re: Re: Re: NG 9/27            

                          By metmike - Oct. 12, 2020, 10:32 p.m.            

            LNG Demand Recovery Spurs Double-Digit Gain for Natural Gas Futures Prices; Cash Surges Too

 

With Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities unscathed by Hurricane Delta, export demand’s quick rebound combined with a chillier forecast to send natural gas futures sharply higher Monday. The November Nymex gas futures contract jumped 14.0 cents to settle at $2.881. December climbed 6.7 cents to $3.271. Spot gas prices also posted stout increases… 


"metmike(from 2 days ago): While the above could also be a big factor, temps moderating in week 2, especially on the European model caused us to completely fill the huge gap higher from Sunday evening's open.

Huge gaps higher are very bullish but when they get filled 24 hours later, they are the complete opposite............exhaustion gaps(gap and crap)

 GAP AND CRAP TECHNICAL FORMATION DEFINED

Breakaway upside gap from the previous day that gets filled quickly.


This is a potentially very negative, buying exhaustion price formation. Initially, the market gaps above the previous days high on the next days open, leaving a gap in prices that were never traded between those previous days highs and the new days lows. This happens because of some powerful force affecting market/trader mentality while the market was closed that caused the bulls to get much more aggressive with buy orders and bears to pull back or be overwhelmed with BUY orders ABOVE the previous days high.

When that gap is open, it is often a breakaway gap, signaling even higher prices as the new force that caused it remains. If that gap is filled and prices return to the previous, lower range, it can be quite bearish...........usually only happens when the bullish force pushing the buying goes away. At that point, the exuberant buying has been exhausted and everybody buying on the most bullish news yet, has bought already and there's nobody left to keep buying and sellers actually have to push the market lower to attract buyers at lower prices.............BELOW the gap. "


By metmike - Oct. 15, 2020, 5:44 a.m.
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All the  0z models were colder in week 2, especially late.

Pretty bullish.

By metmike - Oct. 15, 2020, 10:25 a.m.
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Prospect of Rising Sabine Pass Volumes Boosts Natural Gas Futures Early

 

After a steep sell-off in the previous session, natural gas futures recovered a large chunk of their recent losses in early trading Thursday on the prospect of further increases in export demand. The November Nymex contract was up 12.9 cents to $2.765/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. Analysts at EBW Analytics Group attributed the gains… 

   October 15, 2020

metmike: The main/real reason is colder temps on the overnight models.

By metmike - Oct. 15, 2020, 10:31 a.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending October 9, 2020   |  Released: October 15, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: October 22, 2020 

    +46 BCF   Bullish                                                                                                             

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(10/09/19)
5-year average
(2015-19) 
Region10/09/2010/02/20net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East908  893  15  15   873  4.0  873  4.0  
Midwest1,081  1,062  19  19   1,034  4.5  1,011  6.9  
Mountain241  236  5  5   204  18.1  211  14.2  
Pacific320  318  2  2   296  8.1  313  2.2  
South Central1,326  1,322  4  4   1,082  22.6  1,116  18.8  
   Salt366  366  0  0   241  51.9  281  30.2  
   Nonsalt960  955  5  5   841  14.1  835  15.0  
Total3,877  3,831  46  46   3,489  11.1  3,524  10.0  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,877 Bcf as of Friday, October 9, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 46 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 388 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 353 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,524 Bcf. At 3,877 Bcf, total working gas is  above the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

 


By metmike - Oct. 15, 2020, 5:38 p.m.
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      U.S. Natural Gas Storage          Latest Release   Oct 15, 2020   Actual46B   Forecast55B     Previous75B                                                                                                                                                     https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Oct 15, 2020 10:3046B55B75B
Oct 08, 2020 10:3075B73B76B
Oct 01, 2020 10:3076B79B66B
Sep 24, 2020 10:3066B78B89B
Sep 17, 2020 10:3089B79B70B
Sep 10, 2020 10:3070B68B35B

By metmike - Oct. 15, 2020, 5:42 p.m.
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 Post EIA report comment

Natural Gas Futures Trim Early Gains Despite Sharply Lower-Than-Expected Storage Build

 


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprising low-side 46 Bcf injection into natural gas storage inventories for the week ending Oct. 9. The EIA figure was around 10 Bcf below consensus, and Nymex futures, which surged early Thursday, climbed another couple of notches. The November contract was trading at $2.792/MMBtu in the minutes leading… 


End of Day comment

Story of the day 

 

Natural Gas Futures Rebound on Tight EIA Data, LNG Optimism

Natural gas futures quickly bounced back from the prior day’s nosedive as traders were hopeful Gulf Coast exports would soon resume full operations after a barge sunk near a key export terminal. Buoyed further by the latest government storage data, the November futures contract jumped 13.9 cents to $2.775/MMBtu. December climbed 7.2 cents to $3.261.…   By Leticia GonzalesOctober 15, 2020


metmike: The closing price was lower than the price just before the release of the EIA data. Temps/models overnight turned colder in week 2 and maintained during the day......the main reason for the sharply higher prices.

edit: I take that back, morning 12z models were not as cold as the overnight models after looking more closely. This actually explains why we closed lower than the price earlier in the day when the market was trading the colder 0z model solutions............even after being fed a pretty bullish EIA number at 9:30am.

By metmike - Oct. 16, 2020, 11:11 a.m.
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Friday Morning early:

Balances ‘Very Tight’ as Colder Forecast Helps Propel Natural Gas Futures Early

 

Against the backdrop of a tight supply/demand balance, a colder-trending temperature outlook for later this month helped lift natural gas futures several cents in early trading Friday. The November Nymex contract was up 5.1 cents to $2.826/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. The latest forecast early Friday from Bespoke Weather Services shifted colder toward the… 

metmike: The 0Z GFS Ensemble was pretty cold but was followed by a 6z run that was quite a bit milder.

By metmike - Oct. 19, 2020, 11:19 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Called Lower Amid ‘Complicated’ Forecast, Unclear Outlook for Cameron LNG

 


As traders tried to decipher a “murky” outlook for the timing of restored export volumes out of the Gulf Coast, natural gas futures were down several cents in early trading Monday. The November Nymex contract was off 5.0 cents to $2.723/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET. Analysts at EBW Analytics Group attributed heavy selling in… 

   October 19, 2020


metmike: The last run of the GFS ensemble, 6z run was quite a bit cooler.

From the Bakken
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By joelund - Oct. 19, 2020, 2:25 p.m.
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16 Rigs operating and I have 1

From the Directors cut:  

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2020-10-16.pdf

Oil Production

July 32,304,503barrels = 1,042,081barrels/day (final)

August 36,097,400 barrels= 1,164,432barrels/day (all-time high1,519,037 BOPD Nov 2019)

+11.74% prev mth


Natural Gas Production:

July Production 71,376,125MCF = 2,302,456MCF/dayGas Captured: 91%65,066,290 MCF = 2,243,665MCF/day

August Production 81,506,344MCF = 2,629,237 MCF/day(all-time high3,145,172 MCFD Nov 2019)Gas Captured: 92%74,918,999 MCF = 2,416,742 MCF/day(all-time high 2,899,998 MCFD Mar 2020

+14.91% prev mth


Coming back however slower than expected. 


Wellhead price     ~$31/Bbl

Natural gas              $1.53/Mcf





By metmike - Oct. 19, 2020, 3:09 p.m.
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Thanks very much Joe!


NG prices have had quite a reversal since Sunday evening..+2,000/contact. 

In fact, we put in a small gap(down) and crap formation on the open.  The opening gap lower was filled so quickly that it didn't appear to be a huge deal at the time but the follow thru today, with prices now sharply higher, suggests that it indicated a selling exhaustion. 

By metmike - Oct. 20, 2020, 12:56 p.m.
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NG comment from Monday close:

Story of the day 

 

Colder Weather Data Provides Late Bump for Natural Gas Futures, but LNG Recovery Murkier

Natural gas futures started off the week lower amid further uncertainty surrounding the pace of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export recovery. A “complicated” weather outlook also left traders unsure of where to price gas, but a chillier turn in Monday’s midday models ultimately lifted the November Nymex contract up 2.2 cents to $2.795.   By Leticia Gonzales October 19, 2020


From Tuesday early:

Markets 

 

LNG Flows Said Poised to ‘Ramp Up Rapidly’ as November Natural Gas Rallies

 


With developments along the Louisiana coast appearing favorable for a ramp-up in export demand, natural gas futures surged in early trading Tuesday. The November Nymex contract was up 11.4 cents to $2.909/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas demand climbed to 8.5 Bcf/d in early morning estimates from Bespoke Weather… 

   October 20, 2020


metmike: Temp forecasts for HDD have clearly gotten more bullish the last 24 hours, thru overnight but may not be able to keep us going higher, if the late week 2 maps showing a pattern change to  moderation don't change.

With time, as that period gets closer, that extended period moves up and replaces previous days (colder days) and the new extended forecasts, if they are milder with the new pattern because quite bearish. 

By metmike - Oct. 20, 2020, 5:46 p.m.
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Story of the day 

Markets 

Natural Gas Traders Jump on Positive LNG News, Cooler Weather Outlooks; Cash Strengthens

Natural gas futures rallied Tuesday on news that full liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports could soon resume from two key Gulf Coast facilities. An increasingly chilly weather forecast solidified the momentum, with the November Nymex gas futures contract soaring 11.8 cents to settle at $2.913. December slipped 2.0 cents to $3.260. Spot gas also jumped…   By Leticia GonzalesOctober 20, 2020


metmike: Overnight models colder by late morning/early afternoon models milder and putting some pressure on ng prices, which closed well off their highs, though quite a bit higher on the day.

If models continue milder, we could be close to or have seen a top.

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2020, 11:17 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Rally Above $3 Early on Colder Trends, ‘Increasingly Bullish’ Balances

 


A cooler shift in the weather outlook overnight, coupled with indications of a tightening supply/demand as winter approaches, had natural gas futures charging higher in early trading Wednesday. The November Nymex contract was up 11.5 cents to $3.028/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. NatGasWeather attributed the gains early Wednesday to a combination of a strengthening… 

   October 21, 2020


metmike: After a milder run on Tuesday late morning/early afternoon, models turned colder again, especially overnight.

However, the AO and NAO are going positive and it looks like a pattern change to much milder during week 2, so the weather is threatening to turn bearish and the source of cold will run out. 

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2020, 6:30 p.m.
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Natural Gas Punches Through $3.00 as LNG Demand Reaches Fresh High; Traders Expecting Small Storage Build

 

Natural gas traders may have had the theme of 1980s sitcom “Three’s Company” playing in their heads Wednesday as they knocked on the door of $3.00/MMBtu gas. With the resumption of maximum exports imminent and weather models adding more demand, they got the job done. The November Nymex futures contract settled 11.0 cents higher at… 

    

By Leticia Gonzales

October 21, 2020

By metmike - Oct. 22, 2020, 11:17 a.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending October 16, 2020   |  Released: October 22, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: October 29, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                             +49 BCF                                                                                        

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(10/16/19)
5-year average
(2015-19) 
Region10/16/2010/09/20net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East923  908  15  15   893  3.4  889  3.8  
Midwest1,105  1,081  24  24   1,062  4.0  1,039  6.4  
Mountain245  241  4  4   207  18.4  213  15.0  
Pacific323  320  3  3   297  8.8  313  3.2  
South Central1,329  1,326  3  3   1,122  18.4  1,144  16.2  
   Salt360  366  -6  -6   262  37.4  295  22.0  
   Nonsalt969  960  9  9   861  12.5  849  14.1  
Total3,926  3,877  49  49   3,581  9.6  3,599  9.1  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,926 Bcf as of Friday, October 16, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 49 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 345 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 327 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,599 Bcf. At 3,926 Bcf, total working gas is  above the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - Oct. 23, 2020, 1:07 a.m.
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Natural Gas Slips, Still Maintains $3 Handle as EIA Storage Print Reflects Tightening Balances

 

After gaining 25 cents in the past three sessions, natural gas futures took a breather Thursday. The November Nymex gas futures contract settled at $3.007, down 1.6 cents day/day. December, however, fell a sharper 7.6 cents to $3.272, and similar declines were seen through the remaining winter contracts. Spot gas prices were mostly higher, but… 

   

By Leticia Gonzales

October 22, 2020

metmike: Extended maps turning milder

By metmike - Oct. 23, 2020, 1:32 p.m.
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metmike: Natural gas weather continues to turn more bearish. The European model overnight was much more bearish.

November ng expires next week which could provide some prices spikes, especially this time of year. 

+++++++++++++++++++++

Markets 

 

Weather Outlook Sheds Heating Demand as Natural Gas Futures Slide Early

 

A milder shift in the latest forecasts saw natural gas futures give back some of their recent gains in early trading Friday. After cresting the $3/MMBtu mark earlier in the week, the November Nymex contract was down 3.5 cents to $2.972/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. In the overnight weather data, the European model removed… 

   October 23, 2020

By metmike - Oct. 25, 2020, 11:15 a.m.
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We now have a minimal hurricane forecast for the GOM in an area that will get some ng market attention.

The question is, "is it bearish or is it bullish?"

  Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward            

                            By metmike - Oct. 24, 2020, 11:07 p.m.            

            

Thanks much Larry!


Zeta is expected to become a minimal hurricane and take the path shown below.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024045.shtml?cone#contents

cone graphic


I was thinking that with November forecasts turning warmer and ng closing on its lows Friday, that we might gap lower on the open and it becoming a very bearish,  downside breakaway gap.

But this tropical system was predicted to be almost no threat to the natural gas industry in the GOM as of Friday afternoon and that has changed. 

There will likely be some shut ins, which is bullish as far as less production but also bearish affects on less exports.


15 years ago, production shut ins were entirely bullish since we didn't have much fracking production then and this change would cause higher prices briefly, until the hurricane past or after a brief spike higher dialed in any lost production.

15 years ago, we didn't have exports. That part of the equation in 2020 makes hurricanes in this location bearish from lost exporting. 


How do you think this will affect the market Larry? Others?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                By WxFollower - Oct. 24, 2020, 11:36 p.m.            

            

 Mike asked how do I think this storm will affect NG? I honestly have no idea. As I've said, its previous Gulf storm patterns have made little sense to me. 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

         

                By WxFollower - Oct. 25, 2020, 3:04 a.m.            

                        

Mike,

 I should also tell you that due to the current and projected very slow movement for the next day or so along with the real potential for a further south center relocation and the time of year, the uncertainties are much higher than normal. Therefore, the projected track may change greatly even by late tomorrow. If so, the threat to the N Gulf could go down. We'll see.

                                    



By metmike - Oct. 25, 2020, 11:32 a.m.
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Here is a general discussion on the topic of hurricanes and ng prices:

Does the Atlantic Hurricane Season affect the Energy Market?

https://energywatch-inc.com/does-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-affect-the-energy-market/


These articles might be more relevant but they were MAJOR hurricanes and this one is expected to be minimal.

Weekly Natural Gas Prices Surge as Hurricane Delta Wreaks Havoc on Supply

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/weekly-natural-gas-prices-surge-as-hurricane-delta-wreaks-havoc-on-supply/


Oil and gas prices: What the one-two tropical storm punch in the Gulf means

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/24/business/oil-gas-prices-tropical-storms/index.html


  Why Hurricane Dorian is lifting natural-gas prices

Hurricane Laura Causes Decrease in Oil, Natural Gas Prices

https://energywatch-inc.com/hurricane-laura-causes-decrease-in-oil-natural-gas-prices/


TOPIC PAGE: Hurricane Laura impact on energy markets

Author: ICIS Editorial

                2020/09/02

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2020/08/27/10545399/topic-page-hurricane-laura-impact-on-energy-markets


Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Prices Could Spike Higher if Laura Becomes Category 3 Hurricane


https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-prices-could-spike-higher-if-laura-becomes-category-3-hurricane-668627

By metmike - Oct. 25, 2020, 11:44 a.m.
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Latest discussion of the potential minimal hurricane here(doesn't look too threatening at the moment):

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/60064/

By metmike - Oct. 25, 2020, 11:59 a.m.
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Here's an excellent article but this minimal hurricane is NOT going to have the same impact.

U.S. energy exports severely disrupted by Hurricane Laura

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-laura-lng/u-s-energy-exports-severely-disrupted-by-hurricane-laura-idUSKBN25O0AP


https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/xegpbooqzvq/Pasted%20image%201598579186817.png


Loadings of LNG cargoes from the United States have also been delayed.

LNG exports were on track to fall to 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Thursday, their lowest since February 2019, according to data from Refinitiv. [NGA/]

“Given the direct hit on the Sabine Pass and Cameron LNG export terminals by Hurricane Laura, they will likely be the last terminals to restart exports in the Gulf,” analysts at ClipperData said in a note, referring to Cheniere Energy Inc’s Sabine Pass and Sempra Energy’s Cameron LNG export plants in Louisiana.

Both plants suspended operations earlier this week and said they would conduct damage assessments as soon as it was safe to do so.

Reuters Graphic


metmike: The graphics above are cool but I'm not sure that they tell us that much.

By metmike - Oct. 25, 2020, 6:07 p.m.
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I was hoping to stay short and still think that is the place to be but got out of my ngz shorts at 3.170 because of the hurricane threat.

It will amount to nothing big in the end but with November expiring this week and the hurricane threat and the uncertainty, have to be on the sidelines.



By metmike - Oct. 25, 2020, 6:14 p.m.
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Before the hurricane threat, I expected a gap lower open this evening and that serving as a downside breakaway gap with a mild November crushing prices.......potentially.


However, we opened close to the 4pm close Fri, not a gap lower, traded up a bit, made new lows below Friday's low which held and have come back to higher.......actually, now we are really taking off to the upside............whew, glad to be out!


Interesting that the November is still lower but the December is up.

By MarkB - Oct. 25, 2020, 9:52 p.m.
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Looking like the temps in week 2 will be a little warmer than normal.


Local forecasters playing down the hurricane as probably just a tropical storm rain and wind event. Not going to be a threat to the coastal cities that have already been ravaged by 2 strong hurricanes. Maybe exports will be able to get back closer to normal.


OI for the november contract is already at the bottom. December is trading strong. Will be looking for a possible breakout down in the morning. 

By metmike - Oct. 26, 2020, 12:56 a.m.
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I agree on the downside break out being inevitable if the pattern change to warmer happens and lasts into mid November.


Nov NG expires on Wednesday, so volume and OI is plummeting for the front month.