I am going to go out on a limb and say that USA grain stocks are less than thought. Both 2019 and 2020 seems to be less. SA seems to have sold as much as they can. Russia needs to recover from drought conditions
And the final biggie. I am positive that china has a food shortage. Evidence is the increased purchases of grain from the USA. China isn't buying grain from the USA unless they need the grain and all other sources have been exhausted. China isn't doing us any favors because they like us
They have to buy our grain to avoid a food shortage
Our local corn grain prices have increased by 50 cents/bu. with increased prices holding all the way out until new crop
And of coarse all eyes are still on SA production with La Nina still hanging around
I agree Wayne.
And SA is all sold out. This was somewhat predictable in a global market where the US is such a major supplier.
The rest of the world does not have enough extra corn and beans to supply all of China's needs. And even if they did, China's extra demand for their crops, causes world prices to go higher, taking US prices up because other countries want to buy US grains if our prices are lower than global prices.
So it seems very likely that SA is about to become a major buyer of US meal and beans between now and when their new crop is harvested.
Because of the drought in Brazil, the crop is getting planted a few weeks late. The drought is breaking in Brazil with nice rains(no telling what the weather will be like a month from now though) but the late planting means 3+ weeks longer before their new crop is harvested and 3 more weeks of the world and SA having to buy from the US.
I am reminded of an old saying:
Major bull markets begin with demand and end on shortage (crop failure)
Wise words cutworm!
Brazil on Saturday suspended the 8% import tariff on #corn/soy from outside the Mercosur trade bloc until early 2021, fueling rumors of U.S. purchases. When was the last time USA shipped at least a full cargo (say ~60kt+) of beans to Brazil?
Today (Oct. 21) is the second trading day in October without a flash sale from the USDA. Oct. 9 was the other. Markets were open on Oct. 12 but USDA was observing a federal holiday, and there was no flash. But I'm not counting that as a miss.