Nothing of substance remaining for the week, and as I am going camping this weekend, will do this now.
Another lite week data wise, but enough to go on.
|Housing Market Index M/M||Oct-20||83.00||85.00||C+|
|Housing Starts M/M||Sep-20||1.416M||1.415M||C|
|Housing Permits M/M||Sep-20||1.470M||1.553M||B-|
|Pending Home Sales M/M||Sep-20||6.000M||6.540M||C+|
|Jobless Claims W/W||10/22/2020||898K||787K||B-|
|Leading Indicators M/M||Sep-20||1.20||0.70||C+|
|Kansas City Fed Mfg||Oct-20||11.00||13.00||C+|
No bad news this week.
Redbook continues to edge up.
Kansas City continues a bright outlook on Mfg, edging up a few points.
Leading indicators remain nicely positive. Housing Starts are heavily weighted in this metric.
As the Housing Market Index has been telling us, Housing is on fire. Starts remain strong with a healthy boost in Permits. Pending Home Sales are off the charts at 6.54 million.
The headline for me this week is the Jobless Claims, which dropped to below what I consider to be twice the "acceptable" limit. (About 400k). We got spoiled over the last few years with pre-pandemic levels below 300k. The historic normal is roughly between 3-400K. Continuing Claims have fallen to about 8.5 million vs the record setting 24.9 million in May earlier this year.
I'll go with another solid C+ and am revising the the suck factor down to 6.5, taking into account the significant drop in Jobless claims and the estimated GDP, to be released next week, currently north of 35% (35.3).