We've been having a good discussion about cotton on the tropical thread.
Let's start a new thread for just cotton here!
Tropics:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59336/
Discussion on Michael 2 years ago. There were heavy rains in the panhandle of TX at the same time too.
"Here are the cotton threads/posts regarding Hurricane Michael 2 years ago, with some wonderful research/stats from WxFollower. Some of the best posts ever here.
Hurricane Michael obliterated much of the GA crop."
Cotton
24 responses |
Started by metmike - Oct. 29, 2018, 12:31 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/16128/
Previous cotton threads/posts:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15717/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15065/
Rain forecasts:
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Historical perspective on cotton going back to different time frames.
3 month chart...the lows are in!
Breaking out to the upside? New highs for 2020.
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Comments the past day carried over here:
By WxFollower - Oct. 24, 2020, 10:46 p.m.
On October 13th, I said:
"But maybe not quiet for more than 7-10 days as model consensus suggests a potential late October W Caribbean genesis."
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And here we are with TD 28, soon to be Zeta, as Mike posted.
What earlier appeared to be a possible threat to mainly S FL as far as the US is concerned has shifted much more to, where else, the N Gulf coast again! As of now, I think the highest risk is from an unseasonably very late E LA to the FL Panhandle. I wouldn't rule out FL Big Bend at all. I'd think S FL is pretty safe now but that's not set in stone yet.
What do I think this means for commodities? Well, OJ, which may have been a bit threatened when the S FL threat was higher, has little threat as of today. However, this may mean some of CT is threatened again. I think that this threat would probably be more significant if it goes into the NE Gulf rather than toward the Delta because they have a lot more not yet harvested in S AL, GA, SC, and NC and they weren't affected by Delta too much. But that is just a guess. Who knows? Perhaps getting hit by still another storm in the Delta region would be worse, especially getting still more heavy rain?
And then there's the hard to understand with regard to Gulf storms NG again.
And believe it or not being as late as it is, this may still not be the last US threat. Perhaps another W Car threat in about 2 weeks?? But that's highly speculative, way too far out for modeling to be reliable, and it will be Nov. 7th by then. So, enough about that for now.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
By metmike - Oct. 24, 2020, 11:07 p.m.
Thanks much Larry!
Zeta is expected to become a minimal hurricane and take the path shown below.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024045.shtml?cone#contents
I was thinking that with November forecasts turning warmer and ng closing on its lows Friday, that we might gap lower on the open and it becoming a very bearish, downside breakaway gap.
But this tropical system was predicted to be almost no threat to the natural gas industry in the GOM as of Friday afternoon and that has changed.
There will likely be some shut ins, which is bullish as far as less production but also bearish affects on less exports.
15 years ago, production shut ins were entirely bullish since we didn't have much fracking production then and this change would cause higher prices briefly, until the hurricane past or after a brief spike higher dialed in any lost production.
15 years ago, we didn't have exports. That part of the equation in 2020 makes hurricanes in this location bearish from lost exporting.
How do you think this will affect the market Larry? Others?
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
By metmike - Oct. 24, 2020, 11:23 p.m.
I doubt there will be much affect on cotton.
Not enough rain or wind at this point.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
By WxFollower - Oct. 24, 2020, 11:36 p.m.
Mike asked how do I think this storm will affect NG? I honestly have no idea. As I've said, its previous Gulf storm patterns have made little sense to me.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
By WxFollower - Oct. 25, 2020, 3:04 a.m.
Mike,
I should also tell you that due to the current and projected very slow movement for the next day or so along with the real potential for a further south center relocation and the time of year, the uncertainties are much higher than normal. Therefore, the projected track may change greatly even by late tomorrow. If so, the threat to the N Gulf could go down. We'll see.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
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By metmike - Oct. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
Thanks Larry,
See the links/discussion on the potential impact in this thread, which we can use to comment on the effects of natural gas.
NG 10/14+
27 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Oct. 14, 2020, 6:26 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/60064/
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Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
By metmike - Oct. 25, 2020, 11:46 a.m.
Latest update about the same and not that threatening with the potential minimal hurricane.
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Re: Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
By WxFollower - Oct. 25, 2020, 11:55 p.m.
I'm suspecting Dec CT is up near session highs of +0.33 now, despite the Dow futures down over 150 ,due to TS Zeta and even with it being not far from longterm highs. Let's see whether it holds up through tomorrow.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
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By metmike - Oct. 26, 2020, 12:28 a.m.
That makes sense Larry, with Cl also lower at the moment.
I noted the NHC bumped up the intensity 10 mph to 85 mph and shifted the track a tad farther west, so a slightly bigger threat to energy interests in the GOM.
I still don't see enough rain or wind to cause much damage to the cotton crop but the market doesn't care what I think.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
By WxFollower - Oct. 26, 2020, 1:33 a.m.
Regarding the Delta crop, it may be more a matter of that it doesn't want to see any more heavy rains anytime soon so that what CT has been waterlogged would be able to finally dry put and also bleach out some of the discoloration caused by storm Delta's heavy rains. So, maybe it is putting in additional risk premium for either this possibility in case heavy rains shift west into the Delta region or else if it hits more of the SE crop.
This about it this way: would you feel comfortable shorting CT with still another hurricane set to hit somewhere along the Gulf coast within 2-3 days and also considering a crop that has been hit repeatedly this season? I believe there is shortage of folks who want to short this even at these relatively high prices. A shortage of shorts normally translates into higher prices.
Regardless, keep in mind the uncertainties with tracks and strength of tropical cyclones and the attendant uncertainties of heavy rains and winds. Related to this, there is a good bit of uncertainty regarding how strong this will be at landfall as well as where it will landfall and the path of the heaviest rains as well as strong inland winds.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
By metmike - Oct. 26, 2020, 11:37 a.m.
That could be exactly right Larry.
Its not always the amounts from extreme rain events that matter.
If we get 8 inches, then it turns dry for a month.........no big deal.
If we get 5 inches, then more rains before we can dry out, then more rains..........it is a big deal.
I had some articles on this from previous years that I'll search for and post if found.
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Mike,
I just had another thought. I bet it isn’t just the Zeta threat. I bet it is up also due to the terrible and perhaps unprecedentedly very early in the season bad wintry weather affecting much of the TX crop. That can’t be good for the TX crop, which had already been worsening in recent weeks. Perhaps that is as big a factor today that is allowing a strong day at very longterm highs even with the Dow down ~700 points?
One more thing I’ve been reading about is that there have been wx problems recently in India, one of the world’s largest CT producers.
By WxFollower - Oct. 26, 2020, 1:15 p.m.
Mike,
It isn't just a hard freeze or maybe that at all. It is that there is heavy rain (several inches of unwanted rain at harvest) and even heavy wintry precip. including freezing rain! I don't see how that can be good for the crop.
Edit: Also, I did see this just now from here:
https://agfax.com/2020/10/26/thompson-on-cotton-market-drivers-more-bullish-than-bearish/
"The latest crop conditions report on October 18 indicated 66 percent of the U.S. crop remained in the field, unharvested. This is alarming for as we approach November, harvest conditions will only worsen.
As daylight hours diminish, so does progress. Therein lies the potential for an already short crop to get shorter. As if we haven’t already had enough out of the Tropics, Midsouth and Southeast cotton is being threatened once again.
Tropical Storm Zeta formed in the Gulf over the weekend and is now projected to make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast by mid-week bringing with its heavy rains.
In addition, an expected freeze in parts of the Southwest will hinder late season boll development potentially lowering yields and fiber quality."
By metmike - Oct. 26, 2020, 1:04 p.m.
You may be right about the TX cotton under some extreme weather right now. Well below freezing in the entire panhandle and some places with freezing rain.
However, at this time of year, it appears that a hard freeze(with dry weather) is desirable.
https://www.kcbd.com/2019/10/31/freezing-temperatures-will-ready-cotton-harvest/
LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - The freezing temperature could hurt some crops tonight, but could actually be good for cotton.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=14#
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By WxFollower - Oct. 26, 2020, 1:15 p.m.
Mike,
It isn't just a hard freeze or maybe that at all. It is that there is heavy rain (several inches of unwanted rain at harvest) and even heavy wintry precip. including freezing rain! I don't see how that can be good for the crop.
Edit: Also, I did see this just now from here:
https://agfax.com/2020/10/26/thompson-on-cotton-market-drivers-more-bullish-than-bearish/
"The latest crop conditions report on October 18 indicated 66 percent of the U.S. crop remained in the field, unharvested. This is alarming for as we approach November, harvest conditions will only worsen.
As daylight hours diminish, so does progress. Therein lies the potential for an already short crop to get shorter. As if we haven’t already had enough out of the Tropics, Midsouth and Southeast cotton is being threatened once again.
Tropical Storm Zeta formed in the Gulf over the weekend and is now projected to make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast by mid-week bringing with its heavy rains.
In addition, an expected freeze in parts of the Southwest will hinder late season boll development potentially lowering yields and fiber quality."
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metmike:
I agree Larry!
Crop conditions:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/60434/
Cotton 42% harvested is the average for this time of year but numerous states in the South/Southeast are BEHIND, also MO(not a big producer).
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog4420.txt
The market might be more bullish on this idea if the extended guidance wasn't bone dry:
Zeta strengthened to a high end cat 2 at 110 mph! In addition to the wind damage expected in the N.O. area as well as the coastal areas of SE LA/MS and to a lesser extent in coastal AL/far W FL Panhandle, this is likely going to cause a lot of tree and power line damage well inland in MS, AL, and GA as well as to a lesser extent NE into the Mid-Atlantic states due to the very rapid speed of a still strengthening storm in combo with extra energy from extratropical sources that will somewhat counter the normal weakening of a landfalling tropical system.
With regard to cotton, it is fortunate that the worst of the storm will be threading the needle as far as largely avoiding the major areas of SE AL/SW GA. However, there will still be gusts to lower end TS force there and probably also on a good portion of the NC crop. The rainfall won't be heavy for most of the crop.
This along with the Dow plunge and CT being overbought allowed for a big price drop today, the biggest plunge in quite some time.
Thanks Larry........and this:
