INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 30, 2020, 8:16 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, October 30, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. September Personal Income & Outlays



                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous -2.7%)



                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +1.0%; previous +1.0%)



                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.4%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.6%)



8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index



                       ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)



                       ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)



9:45 AM ET. October ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI



                       PMI-Adj (expected 57.9; previous 62.4)



10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 81.2; previous 80.4)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 75.6)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.8)



3:00 PM ET. September Agricultural Prices



                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -2.0%)




The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 were sharply lower overnight as investors reacted to disappointment over Apple earnings, and COVID-19 worries remained front and center, just days away from the U.S. presidential election. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and  the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 10,656.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,613.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance October's high crossing at 12,249.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,444.75. First support is the overnight low crossing at 11,039.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 10,656.50.



The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways  to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at 3210.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3416.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3532.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3568.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3252.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 3210.70.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off the October 15th high, June's low crossing at 171-16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 175-13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 175-13. Second resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 176-10. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 171-22. Second support is June's low crossing at 171-16.



December T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.286 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.052 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average  crossing at 139.052. Second resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 139.140. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 138.050. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.286. 

 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's breakout below October's low crossing at $36.93 confirms a downside breakout of the September-October trading range. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.38 would would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $42.02. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.33. First support is October's low crossing at $36.93. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at $33.12.  



December heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's breakout below October's low crossing at $108.19 opens the door for a possible test of the May 13th low crossing at $99.24. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the October 9th high crossing at $121.44. Second resistance is the August 25st high crossing at 132.46. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 105.25. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $99.24.



December unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the June 12th low crossing at $99.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.54. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $120.41. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $100.32. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $99.80.     



December Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 3.370 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 3.151 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.362. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.370. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.151. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.922.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $93.21 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $94.14. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. First support is October's low crossing at $92.46. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.



The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, September's low crossing at $116.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $118.95. Second resistance is the September 10th high crossing at $119.42. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $116.61. Second support is September's low crossing at $116.31.



The December British Pound was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2736 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the August 19th high crossing at 1.3270 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3182. Second resistance is the August 19th high crossing at 1.3270. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.2884. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2736.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets  the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 1.0869 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 1.1138 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1090. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. First support is October's low crossing at 1.0869. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. 



The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at $74.53 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at $76.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $76.46. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $76.97. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $74.70. Second support is September's low crossing at $74.53.  



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0969 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 0.0952 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 0.0962. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0963. First support is the October 20th low crossing at 0.0946. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0943.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $1851.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1920.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the October 12th high crossing at $1939.40. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $1859.20. Second support is September's low crossing at $1851.00.



December silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 6th low crossing at $22.965 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $21.810. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.401 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.401. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is the October 6th low crossing at $22.965. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.810. 



December copper was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0363 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3.2180. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0363. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.8345.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to fractionally lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.78 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the July-2019 high crossing at $4.23 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $4.22 1/4. Second resistance is the July-2019 high crossing at $4.23 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.78 3/4. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at $3.60 1/2.       



December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the October 12th low crossing at $5.87 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.66 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $6.38 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.66 1/4. First support is the October 12th low crossing at $5.87. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.74 3/4.



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the October 14th low crossing at $5.23 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.56 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2. First support is the October 14th low crossing at $5.23 1/2.          Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.06 1/4.



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.43 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.66 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.66 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $5.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.43 3/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.58 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews this summer's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $11.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $10.94. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $11.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.58 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.12 1/2.



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $370.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $392.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $370.10. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at $352.30.   

   

December soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 19th low crossing at 32.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 35.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 34.82. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 35.49. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 31.82. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 30.68.



Comments
By metmike - Oct. 30, 2020, 2:38 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks very much talline!


Demand driven grains are fighting some opposing forces. Massive fund longs already, good rains for the driest areas of Brazil, prices already have jumped much higher, demand news is old news, COVID and election uncertainty.


Natural gas weather is potentially bullish with some colder air West to Midwest in week 2 but still mild in the East.  Demand/supply balance appears to have turned very bullish. Big cold waves this Winter will result in BIG drawdowns.

With near record ng in storage right now, very mild periods could also put BIG pressure on prices, especially with funds being long a stratospheric 500,000 contracts right now.