Will start this thread off by copying the comment earlier from the weather thread.
By metmike - June 24, 2018, 8:11 p.m.
"We opened higher and had a little spike up briefly but the problem is that its been too wet, especially for the beans in many key locations (beans don't like wet feet as they say) which I speculated on Friday could have contributed to the strength in beans vs corn.
So turning much drier in week 2, which is almost always bullish in early July, is actually bearish..............initially because it will help the crop in the wet areas.
However, as soon at the market gets the impression that it will be dry for another week beyond the first one, maybe it will be bullish.........and that could come tonight or later this week.
Beans are too far off their lows to buy and the hot/dry weather might be seen as good.............so am not interested in the long side yet.
Last 18z ensembles/mean are not very bullish at the end of week 2:
By mcfarm - June 24, 2018, 11:42 a.m.
"they say large parts of Missouri and S Illinois and w Ill really dry....not in good shape in front of the 90's...other Northern regions have crops yellowing from too much rain...534 acre sold in se south Dakota last week for 10,000 to 11,000 per acre....although it was said this was a very good farm those are some pretty fancy prices for this ag environment"
mcfarm,
Sorry I missed your post in the weather thread earlier as it got buried in the middle of my massive weather posting.
It will be interesting to see crop conditions out tomorrow at 3pm. There is also a USDA report out on Friday at 11am.
Crop condition/ratings from last week:
Daily candlesticks, November Soybeans
Breaking down through the lower tine of the Andrews Fork was some heck of a signal. That I saw happen in front of my face and did not take because of my dang permabull bias. Read horror stories of traders caught, one even whipsawed both ways that crazy dip day. What is that old saying, "better out, wishing to be in rather than in and wishing to be out"!
December wheat candles and guardrail smash
I like that saying Hayman.......and your wonderful chart.
SX now down almost $1.60 from the highs just 3 weeks ago........which were $10.60. Wow!
Lows from last Tue/19th are 864.5.........so we are 40c above the lows.
September Oats
Instead of blowing chunks like the rest, oats taking this opportunity to make a easy double bottom out of this!
Seems United States grown rice is suffering similarly. September daily here.
Very interesting that oats have held here.
Wonder why? Crop conditions for oats are also pretty good.........70% gd/ex but not AS good as corn/beans/Spring wheat.
Alot of old timers remember the expression "Oats Knows!"
over due for a bounce in grain...tonite may end the blood letting..."oats knows"
CZ down 55c from the highs of 3 weeks ago......just above $3.73 at the moment.
Around 13c above the spike lows from last Tue/19th that were $3.60.
Corn and Bean charts from 3 months to 10 years: