INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 13, 2020, 7:59 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, November 13, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. October PPI



                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)



                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)



                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.4%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 3151.9K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1530.5K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 597.1K)



10:00 AM ET. November University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 81.5; previous 81.2)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 78.8)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 84.9)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3919B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -36B)

                       



Monday, November 16, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. November Empire State Manufacturing Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous 10.5)



                       Employment Idx (previous 7.2)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 12.3)



                       Prices Received (previous 5.3)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as investors continue to measure the rise in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations both in the U.S. and in Europe. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 renews this month's rally, September's high crossing at 12,444.75, which marks the upper boundary of the September-November trading range is the next upside target. If this resistance level is cleared, monthly resistance crossing at 12,465.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,472.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance September's high crossing at 12,444.75. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,472.08. Second is November's low crossing at 10,942.25.  



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3394.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3658.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3394.30. Second support is the October 30th low crossing at 3252.20. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 172-26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 167-19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 172-26. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-18. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 169-17. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 167-19.



December T-notes were steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.123 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off last-Thursday's high, June's low crossing at 137.025 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.123. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.300. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.160. Second support is June's low crossing at 137.025. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off  November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $37.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $44.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $43.06. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.33. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $37.06. Second support is November's low crossing at $33.64.  



December heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off November's low, the August 18th high crossing at $132.61 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $129.82. Second resistance is the August 18th high crossing at 132.61. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 113.59. Second support is November's low crossing at $102.52. 



December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Wednesday's high.  The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $131.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $123.41. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $131.93. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $107.57. Second support is November's low crossing at $97.02.     



December Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.140 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at 2.734 is the next downside target.First resistance resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.995. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.140. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at 2.825. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at 2.734.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $93.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term  low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off November's high, September's low crossing at $91.75 is the next downside target.First resistance is November's high crossing at $94.33. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. First support is Monday's low crossing at $92.12. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.



The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $117.54 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If December renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 120.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 10th high crossing at $119.42. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is November's low crossing at $116.13. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at $115.42.



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Wednesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2976 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.3488 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3326. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3488. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3124. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3069.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0874 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.1144 would mark a potential upside breakout of the upper boundary of the August-November-trading range. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.1144. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1319. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0874. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. 



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $77.36. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.75. Second support is October's low crossing at $74.69.  



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0956 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this week's decline, October's low crossing at 0.0943 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0969. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0979. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0947. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0943.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1909.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off Monday's high, the July 16th low crossing at $1819.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1966.10. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1848.00. Second support is the July 16th low crossing at $1819.90.



December silver was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $23.600 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at $22.625. If December renews the rally off October's low, the September 15th high crossing at $27.865 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $26.135. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is October's low crossing at $22.625. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.810. 



December copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0624 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.2180. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0624. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.0280.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally November's low, the June-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $4.01 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $4.28. Second resistance is the June-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at $4.43 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $4.01 3/4. Second support is the November's low crossing at $3.93.      



December wheat was lower overnight while extending this week's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.77 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.10 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $6.26 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $6.38 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.77 1/2. Second support is  50% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.58 3/4.



December Kansas City wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.23 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off the October 28th low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2. First support is the October 28th low crossing at $5.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.23 1/4.



December Minneapolis wheat was steady to lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to fractionally lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at $5.40 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.71 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.71 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at $5.40 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at $5.30 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's rally, monthly resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $11.71 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average  crossing at $10.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $11.62 1/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $11.71 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.89.



December soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $382.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $401.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $382.90. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at $352.30.   

   

December soybean oil was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off October's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the November-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at 38.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average  crossing at 34.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 37.32. Second resistance is the November-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at 38.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 35.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.54.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed up $1.15 at $65.95. 



December hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $64.85 would open the door for a larger-degree decline. First resistance is October's high crossing at $72.80. Second resistance is the July-2019 high crossing at $73.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $64.85. Second support is the September 16th low  crossing at $61.25.     



December cattle closed down $0.33 at $112.08 



December cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 30th high crossing at $115.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $112.70. Second resistance is the September 30th high crossing at $115.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.51. Second support is October's low crossing at $102.53. 



January Feeder cattle closed up $0.38-cents at $140.58. 


January Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $144.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $132.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $144.55. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $147.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $132.33.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 12th high crossing at 11.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 10.18 is the next downside target. 



December cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 21.15 is the next downside target. If December extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.67 is the next upside target.                    



March sugar closed higher on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 15.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 13.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.            



December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and opens the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 73.00 is the next upside target. 

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By metmike - Nov. 13, 2020, 11:19 a.m.
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