INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 25, 2018, 7:45 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, June 25, 2018

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 



 

 

                       NAI (previous 0.34)

 



 

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.46)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (previous 662K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -1.5%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.4)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 26.8)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 35.2)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as Dow futures fell more than 150 points, dragged lower by a sharp drop in the price of Brent crude and by fresh threats from President Donald Trump against the U.S.’s trading partners.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7188.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off the late-April low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7188.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6973.19.    



The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as trade war concerns heat up again. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2720.87 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2796.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2737.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2720.87.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight while extending this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 144-06 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 145-28. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 142-01 are needed to renew the decline off May's high. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 139-11.  



September T-notes were higher overnight while extending June's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 120.060 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 121.030. If September resumes the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 117.300 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 120.060. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.   



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AugustNymex crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 72.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 69.38. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 72.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.15. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 63.40.    



August heating oil was lower overnight while extending the trading range for the past five-days. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.21. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.



August unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 211.34. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



August Henry natural gas was lower overnight while extending the trading range for the past four-weeks.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 3.043 or below the reaction low crossing at 2.883 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.043. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.885. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.883.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 95.22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.61.



The September Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.62 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 119.40. If September extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.



The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3367 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3610. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.3152. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048.  



The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0204 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. If September resumes this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0086. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 



The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's key reversal up. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 76.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.64. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.83.  



The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9208 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.9051 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9208. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is June's low crossing at 0.9073. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.9051. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, last-December's low crossing at 1251.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1292.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1282.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1292.20. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1262.40. Second support is last-December's low crossing at 1251.90.



July silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 16.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.591 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.591. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 17.350. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 16.190. Second support is May's low crossing at 16.070. 



July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 295.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.19 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.63. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.19. First support is the overnight low crossing at 300.65. Second support is March's low crossing at 295.85.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.61. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.38 3/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2. 



July wheat was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 4.59 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.67. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.     



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 1/2-cents at 4.88 3/4. 



July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.71 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.83 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.64. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.83. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.41 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.06 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.53. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second support is the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4.



July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 353.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 317.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 339.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 353.50. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 320.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00.



July soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.21. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 27.79. Second support is the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed lower $0.65 at $79.82. 



July hogs closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.07 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the late-February high crossing at 84.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 83.83. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 84.67. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.60. Second support is June's low crossing at 75.20.  



October cattle closed up $0.40 at 109.40. 



October cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 110.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 109.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.

 

August Feeder cattle closed up $0.73 at $149.20. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 142.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 150.75. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 142.18. Second support is May's low crossing at 136.25.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.21 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.02 is the next downside target.  



July sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.12 is the next downside target.  



July cotton closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 81.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.67 would confirm that a low has been posted.

Comments
By metmike - June 25, 2018, 9:15 a.m.
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Thanks Tallpine!