INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 23, 2020, 8:02 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, November 23, 2020  



8:30 AM ET. October CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index



                       NAI (previous 0.27)



                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 1.33)



9:45 AM ET. November US Flash Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (previous 53.3)



9:45 AM ET. November US Flash Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 56.0)



Tuesday, November 24, 2020 



7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.0%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +1.4%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +1.7%)



9:00 AM ET. September U.S. Monthly House Price Index



9:00 3rd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index



9:00 AM ET. September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices



                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)



                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)



                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)



10:00 AM ET. November Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous 29)



                       Shipments Idx (previous 30)



10:00 AM ET. November Consumer Confidence Index



                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 98.3; previous 100.9)



                       Expectation Idx (previous 98.4)



                       Present Situation Idx (previous 104.6)



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.2M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.3M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.0M)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 renews this month's rally, September's high crossing at 12,444.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,559.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance September's high crossing at 12,444.75. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,713.29. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,559.08.  



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3419.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3658.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3470.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3419.98. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-07 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 175-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 172-15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-07. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 175-27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 172-15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 169-17.



December T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.259 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.043 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.259. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 139.085. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.043. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.160. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $44.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $39.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $43.06. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $39.48. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $37.06.    



December heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the August 18th high crossing at $132.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $131.08. Second resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $132.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $125.39. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.54. 



December unleaded gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $131.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.39 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $123.41. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $131.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.39. Second support is the November 6th low crossing at $107.57. 



December Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 2.949 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-October-rally crossing at 2.449 is the next downside target.First resistance resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at 2.949. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.964.  First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.525. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-October-rally crossing at 2.449.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, September's low crossing at $91.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $93.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $93.29. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $94.33. First support is the overnight low crossing at $92.02. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.



The December Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at $120.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $119.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is the reaction low crossing at $117.54. Second support is November's low crossing at $116.13. 



The December British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.3488 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3143 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3383. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3488. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3143. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3015.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets  the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the November 11th low, November's high crossing at 1.1144 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 1.0874 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1144. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1319. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0874. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. 



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $77.36. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.81. Second support is October's low crossing at $74.69.  



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 0.0970 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0954 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0970. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0979. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0954. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0943.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range off the past two weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off November's high, the July 16th low crossing at $1819.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1900.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1900.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1966.10. First support is November's low crossing at $1848.00. Second support is the July 16th low crossing at $1819.90.



December silver was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the September-November trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $23.600 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at $22.625. If December renews the rally off October's low, the September 15th high crossing at $27.865 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $26.135. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is October's low crossing at $22.625. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.810. 



December copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the June-2018 high crossing at 3.4140 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0866 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.3015. Second resistance is the June-2018 high crossing at 3.4140. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.1482. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0866.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. A falling U.S. Dollar along with weather concerns in South America and strong exports continue to underpin the corn market for the time being. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the June-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $4.03 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $4.29 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at $4.43 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at $4.03 3/4. Second support is the November's low crossing at $3.93.       



December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.01 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.77 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $6.26 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $6.38 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.77 1/2. Second support is 50% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.58 3/4.



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off  November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off the October 28th low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $5.23 1/2.



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the October 12th low crossing at $5.40 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.53 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $5.71 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.42. Second support is October's low crossing at $5.30 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were higher overnight as they extend the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's rally, monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average  crossing at $11.20 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $12.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.64 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.20 1/4.



December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging, but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $387.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $401.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $387.20. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at $352.30.   

   

December soybean oil was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, monthly resistance crossing at 41.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 35.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 39.32. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 41.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 37.74. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 35.97.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed up $0.48 at $64.18. 



December hogs closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at $61.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $65.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $67.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $72.80. First support is today's low crossing at $63.50. Second support is the September 16th low crossing at $61.25.     



December cattle closed down $0.25 at $108.00 



December cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, October's low crossing at $102.53 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $110.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $110.69. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $112.70. First support is today's low crossing at $106.60. Second support is October's low crossing at $102.53. 



January Feeder cattle closed down $0.90-cents at $134.65. 


January Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at $132.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $138.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $138.46. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $141.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at $132.48. Second support is October's low crossing at $124.25.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee posted a key reversal down on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 12.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



March cocoa closed sharply higher for the sixth day in a row on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.                   



March sugar closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.88 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 16.45 is the next upside target.           



December cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's rally, October's high crossing at 72.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 23, 2020, 12:31 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!!


Wednesday's weather(most maps automatically update for the next day)

Will update this one later today:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61339/


NG weather turning less bearish(even bullish)...........weather not as mild as Friday.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61249/



Beans still on fire!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/60859/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59680/


Exports:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61633/


Coffee stalled out:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61046/