Long time no see(read)!
Most maps below will automatically update each day.
Models turning colder almost every run for the last few days as they get a handle on a potential pattern change from +AO/NAO to -AO.NAO!
NEW: Detailed analysis. Latest COVID-19 numbers. .............COVID is killing people at a 5 times lower rate per positive cases, compared to the Spring peak. That's the good news. The bad news is that daily positives are 4 times higher than the Spring peak and increasing everywhere with hospitals near capacity in many places.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61206/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Cooling down closer to average.
Lows days 3-7 below:
Freeze line plunging into the Deep South!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
Above average N.Plains. Chilly in TX vs average.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features days 0-1-2 then days 3-7:
Active system now, followed by Canadian high pressure and quiet/chilly, with reinforcing cold fronts.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
Days 0-1-2 below:
Days 3-7 below:
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Rains shift east and especially south, where the deep south could have flooding rains.
Day 1 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Total snow accumulation the next 2 weeks from the GFS ensemble mean model:
Snow could start piling up Upper Lakes to Northern New England, especially S. Canada.
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loops
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
May: 7: Drought increased a bit from KS westward.
May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.
May 21: A bit more drought in ND.
May 28: Not much change
June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.
June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!
June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.
June 24: Drought help in some places(KS) but increased a bit in others(ND).
July 1: Drought shrunk in Ohio Valley(I got 5.5 inches of rain in sw INdiana!) but not much change elsewhere. Surprised it didn't shrink more in IN/IL where some places(Bowyer) got great rains recently.
July 8: The main change was an increase over w.IA and e.NE. At the end of July with the hot/dry weather coming up, the S.Plains drought should expand into the S.Midwest to the Eastern Cornbelt.
July 15: Drought increased again over IA/MO/IN/OH. In july, evaporation usually exceeds rainfall, so some of this is seasonal. Hot temps coming up will accelerate evaporation.
July 22: Some Recent rains in IN did not make the cutoff.
July 29: Main dry spots are W.Iowa and IN/OH. Upcoming rains prospects good for ECB.
August 6: Drought got much worse in Iowa.
August 13: Looks like rains on Monday made no difference to W.IA drought(only around 1 inch).
August 20: IA is very dry.........into N.IL now.
August 27: Drought got worse in IA!!
September 3: Drought worse in IA and IL, N.IN!
September 10: We should probably be noting the real drought out West. The Rockies back to OR is the most severe.
October 1: La Nina driven severe drought out West, some of which has pushed into the Plains and even parts of the Midwest in recent months.
Oct. 7: Drought intensifies..............which is not unusual since this is the driest time of year seasonally.
November 5: Drought improves in the S.Plains!
November 12: Not much change. Hard to increase drought at this time of year with the cooler temperatures.
November 19: Drought worsens a bit out West!
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
November 24: The mean below looks pretty zonal and benign but thats because it averages out alot of high amplitude solutions that cancel out the extremes with the majority NOT looking like the average/mean below. That means high uncertainty. Several individual solutions are very cold in the Midwest/East. Others are pretty mild. With the AO and NAO dropping in week 2, I am in the colder camp for now. The European Ensemble strongly favors this too.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 09, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run at 360 hours:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f384.gif
November 24: Like the Canadian model, we have extreme differences in solutions with a slight majority still being mild on the 0z run. The 12z run looks a bit colder to me and the potential big drop in the AO/NAO has me leaning there.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
November 24: This one is tricky to analyze. A key feature for me to understand what might be happening is the deep negative anomaly in the Pacific, just south of Alaska at 168 hours on the 500mb/upper level map just below. This feature is pumping up the upper level ridge and positive anomalies down stream across much of S. Canada. Look at it retrograding MUCH farther west of that at 360 hours on map #3 below. This new position, helps pump up the ridge farther north into CENTRAL Canada, including the latitude of the Hudson Bay. This is shaping up to show pronounced positive anamolies great enough and far enough north vs negative anamolies farther south in the US, especially Southeast that's its morphing into type of -AO/-NAO that flushes cold air masses from high latitudes to the middle latitudes and even a bit farther south, where they are colder vs average. The positive PNA the entire period is usually very efficient at delivering air masses from the north deeply into the southern US.
2 weeks out below
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
November 24: The AO/NAO/PNA have been already mentioned several times. The PNA increases to an impressive ++PNA before dropping a bit late in week 2. This is great for air masses in the N.Plains and vicinity get a big push, well to the south. This has been there for numerous days. The biggest change the last 2 days has been the AO/NAO plunging in week 2 from the current, long lived positives the last month and part of the reason for the recent VERY mild temps in the Midwest/East to negative values. If this happens, it is advertising a major pattern change to much colder. In the Winter, a -AO is very favorable for flushing cold air from the high latitudes to the middle latitudes. A -NAO does the same thing and helps especially along the East Coast and provides an additional push south to colder air masses after they cross the US border.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Here's yesterday very mild week 3 and week 4 outlook. I would not give that much if any weighting.
Interesting to see the large area of cold from the Hudson Bay northeastward.
Should a -AO/-NAO develop, that would be the source region for some pretty major cold to be driven into the US, especially the Northeastn US.