INO Morning Market Commentary
1 response | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Nov. 30, 2020, 7:07 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, November 30, 2020   



9:45 AM ET. Nov. Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI



                       PMI-Adj (previous 61.1)



10:00 AM ET. October Pending Home Sales Index



                       Pending Home Sales (previous 130.0)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M%  (previous -2.2%)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +20.5%)



10:30 AM ET. November Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous 19.8)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 25.5)



3:00 PM ET. October Agricultural Prices



                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +0.9%)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extends last-week's holiday shortened rally. The Dow is headed for its best monthly return since January 1987, and both the Dow and S&P 500 are looking at their best November returns since 1928, according to Dow Jones Market Data. At the same time the Dow was lower overnight pressured by a report that the administration of President Donald Trump could be ready to blacklist China’s biggest chip maker SMIC and energy giant CNOOC. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 resumes this month's rally, September's high crossing at 12,444.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,640.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance September's high crossing at 12,444.75. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,898.96. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,640.55.  



The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the November 9th gap crossing at 3502.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3658.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3545.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3446.13. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-31 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 175-27. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 172-25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-31. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 175-27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 172-25. Second support is November's low crossing at 169-16.



December T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.233 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.088 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.233. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 139.085. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.088. Second support is November's low crossing at 137.080. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $41.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $46.26. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $43.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $41.54.    



January heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $125.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $140.15. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $131.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $125.72. 



January unleaded gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $134.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $128.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $134.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $120.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.13. 



January Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.986 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-October-rally crossing at 2.562 is the next downside target.First resistance resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.986. Second resistance is the November 16th gap crossing at 3.074. First support is November's low crossing at 2.656. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-October-rally crossing at 2.562.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $90.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $93.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $92.49. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.18. First  support is the overnight low crossing at $91.55. Second support is monthly support  crossing at $90.21.



The December Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at $120.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $119.95. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.96. 



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.3488 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3215 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3401. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3488. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3215. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3047.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets  the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the November 11th low, November's high crossing at 1.1144 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 1.0937 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1144. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1319. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0874. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789.



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $77.36. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.90. Second support is October's low crossing at $74.69.  



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 0.0970 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0954 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0970. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0979. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0954. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0943.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1711.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1893.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1843.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1874.10. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1767.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1711.10.



March silver was lower overnight while extending the September-November trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.389 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.389. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $26.270. First support is September's low crossing at $21.930. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148. 



March copper was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly chart crossing at 3.6126 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.2193 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.4985. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly chart crossing at 3.6126. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.3042. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.2193.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.15 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $4.30 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.15 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.00 1/2.    



December wheat lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.77 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.16 1/2 are needed to renew the rally off November's low while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $6.26 1/4. First resistance is November's high crossing at $6.26 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $6.38 1/4. First support is November's low crossing at $5.80 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at $5.77 1/2.       

 

December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.38 3/4 is the next downside target. If December renews  the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $5.81 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $5.81. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.38 3/4. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $5.23 1/2.      



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.51 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-October-rally crossing at $5.37 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $5.71 3/4 is the next upside target. Second resistance is October's high  crossing at $5.87 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-rally crossing at $5.37 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $5.22 1/2.     

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's rally, monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.45 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $12.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.80 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.45 3/4.



December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $390.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $402.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $390.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $372.50.       



December soybean oil closed lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 36.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, monthly resistance crossing at 41.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 39.32. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 41.25. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 37.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 36.91.     

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.23 at $67.45. 



February hogs closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November 6th high crossing at $68.83 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $61.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 6th high crossing at $68.83. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $72.80. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $62.75. Second support is September's crossing at $61.55.     



February cattle closed down $0.83 at $110.55 



February cattle close lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $115.45 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at $105.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $115.45. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $109.00. Second support is October's low crossing at $105.53. 



January Feeder cattle closed down $0.55-cents at $139.63. 


January Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at $141.50 is the next upside target. If January renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at $132.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $141.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $142.45. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $133.00. Second support is October's low crossing at $124.25.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee gapped up and closed higher due on Friday as it renewed this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 12.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.   



March cocoa closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target.                  



March sugar closed slightly higher on Friday but remain below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.93 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 16.45 is the next upside target.            



December cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes Monday's rally, January's high crossing at 73.00 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 30, 2020, 11:36 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine, hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Thanksgiving weather(most maps updated):

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61778/


Big drop in wheat condition but wheat reversed lower in a big way on Wed:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61672/


NG less bearish. NAO and AO becoming negative........favorable for  cold air at higher latitudes to push into the US. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61249/


Coffee...WxFollower tracking it with expertise:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61046/




South America(turning much wetter):

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59680/


Exports last week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61633/

Exports this week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61986/

                                    

Crude:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61677/