INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 3, 2020, 7:57 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, December 3, 2020 



7:30 AM ET. November Challenger Job-Cut Report



                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -32%)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 768K; previous 778K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +30K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 6071000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -299K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1665.6K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 768.1K)

 

                      Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 795.8K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



9:45 AM ET. November US Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 56.9)



10:00 AM ET. November ISM Report on Business Services PMI



                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 55.5; previous 56.6)



                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 61.2)



                       Prices Idx (previous 63.9)



                       Employment Idx (previous 50.1)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 58.8)



10:00 AM ET. October Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment



10:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting held remotely



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3940B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -18B)

                       

11:00 AM ET. November Global Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 52.9)



12:00 PM ET. November Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, December 4, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +425K; previous +638K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 6.7%; previous 6.9%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.5)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.04)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.14%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.2%; previous +4.46%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.8)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous -268K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +906K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 61.7%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



8:30 AM ET. October U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -64.8B; previous -63.86B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 76.35B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous +2.6%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 240.22B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous +0.5%)



10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)



                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +1.1%)



                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.8%)



                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.5%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M%



                       Durable Goods, M/M%



Monday, December 7, 2020 



10:00 AM ET. November Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 97.57)



                       ETI, Y/Y%



3:00 PM ET. October Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +16.2B)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as traders balanced optimism over stimulus talks with worries over the worsening coronavirus situation and trade uncertainty. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,064.64 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance was Tuesday's high crossing at 12,512.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,064.64. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at11,730.49.  



The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3578.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3667.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3578.12. Second  support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3460.69. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 169-16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 175-01 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 170-22. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 175-01. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 177-06. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 171-22. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.



March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 136.265 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.090 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.090. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 137.085. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $42.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $46.26. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $44.28. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $42.50.    



January heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $128.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $140.15. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $134.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $128.78. 



January unleaded gas was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $134.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $128.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $134.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $122.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.34. 



January Henry natural gas was lower overnight and are resuming the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-October-rally crossing at 2.562 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.913 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.913. Second resistance is the November 16th gap crossing at 3.074. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.646. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-October-rally crossing at 2.562.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $90.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $92.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $92.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.99. First support is the overnight low crossing at $90.83. Second support is monthly support crossing at $90.21.



The December Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $124.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2020-decline crossing at $121.46. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $124.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $119.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.01. 



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to  higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.3488 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3276 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3454. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3488. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3276. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3085.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's upside breakout of the August-December trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets  the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends Tuesday's trading range breakout, monthly resistance marked by the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1239 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1016 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.1214. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1239. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1049. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1016.



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $77.48. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $76.91. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.70.  



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0954 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 0.0970 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0970. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0979. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0954. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0943.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1862.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1711.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1862.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1889.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1767.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1711.10.



March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.292 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.292. Second resistance is the November 16th high crossing at $25.285. First support is September's low crossing at $21.930. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148. 



March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The  high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly chart crossing at 3.6126 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.2780 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.5215. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly chart crossing at 3.6126. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.3852. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.2780.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.09 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.27 3/4  would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.39 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.09 1/2. Second support is the October 29th low crossing at $3.93.    



March wheat lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.71 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $6.09 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.22 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $6.28 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at $5.71. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.55.      

 

March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $5.67 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.27 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.75. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $5.86 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.27 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.09 3/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high  crossing at crossing at $5.73 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-October-rally crossing at $5.39 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at crossing at $5.73. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $5.86. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $5.46 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-October-rally crossing at $5.39 1/4.     

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If January renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $12.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.92 1/4.



March soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $366.10 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $398.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $380.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $366.10.       



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 36.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, monthly resistance crossing at 41.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 38.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 41.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 36.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.69.     

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.85 at $67.90. 



February hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close above the November 6th high crossing at $68.83 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low October's high crossing at $72.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $69.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $72.80. First support is November's low crossing at $62.75. Second support is September's crossing at $61.55.     



February cattle closed up $0.40 at $113.58 



February cattle close higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $115.45 is the next upside target. If February extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the November 20th low crossing at $109.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $115.45. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is the November 20th low crossing at $109.00. Second support is October's low crossing at $105.53. 



January Feeder cattle closed down $0.05-cents at $141.90. 


January Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $147.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $143.48. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $147.38. First support is the November 20th low crossing at $133.00. Second support is October's low crossing at $124.25.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 12.80 is the next upside target.    



March cocoa gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target.                     



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.93 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-December. If March renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 16.45 is the next upside target.            



March cotton closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.80 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 70.27 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 79.56 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 3, 2020, 2:44 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks a ton Tallpine!


South America:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/62048/


Coffee. WxFollower updating us

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/62040/


Natural Gas

Models turned sharply milder late in the extended and crashed the price the last 36 hours..

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61857/


Crude

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61677/


Exports, sales not so good on Thursday.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61986/

                                    

crop condition...watching the affect of drought on wheat

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/62118/


Soybeans soaring, nice bounce on Thursday from the spike low on Wednesday. Still lots of rain for Brazil 

but drying up in Argentina:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/60859/