Wheat December 4, 2020
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Started by metmike - Dec. 6, 2020, 12:09 a.m.

As of Dec. 1, funds were the most bullish on K.C. #wheat versus Chicago since early Nov. 2018. The most-active K.C. contract is trading around 32 cents/bu below Chicago. That compares with mid-60s in Oct, 90 cents in July, and mid-90s a year ago.

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By metmike - Dec. 6, 2020, 12:15 a.m.
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By metmike - Dec. 7, 2020, 2:08 p.m.
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Not much help from the drought for most of the HRW.

2 week rains below from the 12z GFS ensemble:


By metmike - Dec. 7, 2020, 2:10 p.m.
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Current Dew Points


Dry air in place. Gulf of Mexico closed for water vapor transport business to the north.

Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loops


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"

                                    

                    

                                                                                    

            

                            

Soilmoisture anomaly:


These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif


                                    


              

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.


April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY!  For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.

April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.

May: 7:  Drought increased a bit from KS westward.

May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.

May 21:  A bit more drought in ND.

May 28: Not much change

June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.

June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!

June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.

June 24: Drought help in some places(KS) but increased a bit in others(ND).

July 1: Drought shrunk in Ohio Valley(I got 5.5 inches of rain in sw INdiana!) but not much change elsewhere. Surprised it didn't shrink more in IN/IL where some places(Bowyer) got great rains recently.

July 8: The main change was an increase over w.IA and e.NE. At the end of July with the hot/dry weather coming up, the S.Plains drought should expand into the S.Midwest to the Eastern Cornbelt.

July 15: Drought increased again over IA/MO/IN/OH. In july, evaporation usually exceeds rainfall, so some of this is seasonal. Hot temps coming up will accelerate evaporation.

July 22: Some Recent rains in IN did not make the cutoff.

July 29: Main dry spots are W.Iowa and IN/OH. Upcoming rains prospects good for ECB.

August 6: Drought got much worse in Iowa.

August 13: Looks like rains on Monday made no difference to W.IA drought(only around 1 inch).

August 20: IA is very dry.........into N.IL now.

August 27: Drought got worse in IA!!

September 3:  Drought worse in IA and IL, N.IN!

September 10: We should probably be noting the real drought out West. The Rockies back to OR is the most severe.

October 1: La Nina driven severe drought out West, some of which has pushed into the Plains and even parts of the Midwest in recent months.

Oct. 7: Drought intensifies..............which is not unusual since this is the driest time of year seasonally.

November 5: Drought improves in the S.Plains!

November 12: Not much change. Hard to increase drought at this time of year with the cooler temperatures.

November 19: Drought worsens a bit out West!

November 26: Drought worsens more out West!

December 3: Drought worsens more out West! It's the La Nina!

      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/     

             

  Drought Monitor for conus

Drought Monitor for conus

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Dec. 9, 2020, 1:25 a.m.
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Not much precip for Hard Red Winter Wheat country the next 2 weeks. Decent precip east of that. 

Despite the drought, not a lot of weather trading for crops in the US in December.

Extreme cold would be bullish wheat because of WInter kill threats.

Heavy precip in drought areas would be bearish because it replenishes soil moisture for the crop when it comes out of dormancy in the Spring.

By metmike - Dec. 9, 2020, 7:51 p.m.
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Still dry for most of HRW country the next 2 weeks. USDA report out Thursday 11am may set off some price fireworks!  2 week rains from the just out 18z GFS ensemble below.