INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 26, 2018, 7:58 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, June 26, 2018  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.3%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.5%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (expected +6.8%; previous +6.8%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 128.1; previous 128)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 105.6)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 161.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 15)

 



 

 

                       Retail Revenues Idx

 



 

 

                       Services Rev Idx

 



 

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous 15)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.0M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.1M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)

 



 

 

Wednesday, June 27, 2018  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 384.1)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +5.1%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 259.6)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +4.3%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1052.3)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +6.1%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Advance Report on Durable Goods

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -1.0%; previous -1.7%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -1.9%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.0%)

 

                        

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 

                        

 

8:30 AM ET. Annual   U.S. International Investment Position

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter U.S. International Investment Position

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 106.4)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous -1.3%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.1%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 426.527M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.914M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 240.04M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.277M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 117.408M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.715M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 96.7%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.228M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.573M)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as futures showed little change suggesting the Dow industrials may catch their breath after Monday’s 328-point drop that was blamed on trade-related concerns.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extend Monday's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at 6978.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7226.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance isunknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6978.56. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6855.50.    



The September S&P 500 was lower overnight over trade-war concerns.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 2681.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 2783.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2701.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2681.00.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight while extending this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 144-25 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 145-28. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 142-01 are needed to renew the decline off May's high. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 139-11.  



September T-notes were slightly lower overnight while extending June's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 120.060 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 121.030. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.103 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 120.060. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.   



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AugustNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 72.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 69.44. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 72.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.21. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 63.40.    



August heating oil was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range for the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.21. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.



August unleaded gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.47. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 211.41. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



August Henry natural gas was lower overnight while extending the trading range for the past four-weeks.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 3.043 or below the reaction low crossing at 2.883 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.043. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.887. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.883.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 95.22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.71.



The September Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the reaction high crossing at 119.40 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.61. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.



The September British Pound was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3366 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3588. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.3152. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048.  



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0197 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. If September resumes this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0086. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 



The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's key reversal up. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 76.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.73. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.55. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.83.  



The September Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9202 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.9051 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9202. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is June's low crossing at 0.9073. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.9051. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was sharply lower overnight hitting their lowest level in more than six months as it remains under pressure from a stronger U.S. Dollar. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, last-December's low crossing at 1251.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1289.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1278.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1289.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1257.70. Second support is last-December's low crossing at 1251.90.



July silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 16.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.579 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.579. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 17.350. First support is the overnight low crossing at 16.185. Second support is May's low crossing at 16.070. 



July copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 295.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.64 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.31. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.64. First support is Monday's low crossing at 296.80. Second support is March's low crossing at 295.85. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.69 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.58. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.69 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.38 3/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2. 



July wheat was fractionally lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 4.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.06 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.91 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.06 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.67. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 19-cents at 4.69 3/4. 



July Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.05 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.69. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat was fractionally lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.78 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.57 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.78 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.38 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.44 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.97 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.44 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second support is the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4.



July soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 351.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 317.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 337.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 351.20. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 320.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00.



July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.38. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.09. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 27.79. Second support is the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99. 



Comments
By metmike - June 26, 2018, 9:29 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!