INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 10, 2020, 7:51 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

                       

Thursday, December 10, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. November Real Earnings



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1371.4K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 163.9K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 446.4K)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 728K; previous 712K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -75K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 5520000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -569K)



8:30 AM ET. November CPI



                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)



                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)



                       Energy Idx, M/M%



                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.1%; previous +1.2%)



                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Services



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3939B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -1B)

                       

12:00 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)



2:00 PM ET. November Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



Friday, December 11, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. November PPI



                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)



                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)



                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.3%)



10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 75.8; previous 77.0)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 71.3)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 85.8)



  N/A              Deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown



Monday, December 14, 2020  



  N/A              G30 special report launch - 'Reviving and Restructuring the

                       Corporate Sector Post-COVID'


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's selloff. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,204.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 12,667.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,204.38. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at11,851.36.  



The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3614.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3706.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3614.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3491.48. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they continue this week's back and forth choppy action. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-14 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 170-22. If March extends last-week's decline, November's low crossing at 169-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-14. Second resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 175-21. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.



March T-notes were higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.037 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off last-week's high, November's low crossing at 136.265 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.037. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 137.075. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $43.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $46.68. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $43.97. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.49.    



January heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $133.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $142.56. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $138.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $133.67. 



January unleaded gas was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the  50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $134.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $130.37. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $134.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.30. 



January Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.755 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.624. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.755. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.368. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $91.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $90.21 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving averagecrossing at $91.06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at  $91.67. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $90.38. Second support is monthly support crossing at $90.21.



The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2020-decline crossing at $122.03. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $121.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.99. 



The March British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3329 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3550. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3329. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3147.



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1319 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1110 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1311. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1319. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1211. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1110. 



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $78.37. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.73. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.11.  



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0957 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 0.0971 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0971. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0957. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0948.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1833.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1711.10 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1885.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1885.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1833.50. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.



March silver was was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning  neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $26.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 16th high crossing at $25.285. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $26.27. First support is September's low crossing at $21.930. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148. 



March copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.6126 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.3694 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.5460. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly chart crossing at 3.6126. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.3694. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.1950.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past six-days. Trading this morning will likely be subdued ahead of the release of this month's supply-demand report. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. However, everything is up in the air until the latest supply-demand numbers are released. If March extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.14 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $4.27 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $4.39 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.14 1/4. Second support is the October 29th low crossing at $3.93.    



March wheat was higher overnight as it extended Wednesday's sharp rebound. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.02 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.02 1/2. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $6.22 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.65 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.55.      

 

March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.54 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.27 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.54 1/2. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $5.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.27 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.09 3/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's strong rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.64 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-October-rally crossing at $5.39 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.64 1/4. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $5.73. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.42 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-October-rally crossing at $5.39 1/4.     

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. However, everything hinges on this morning's supply-demand report and South America's weather forecast for near-term direction. If January renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $11.42 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.07 3/4. First resistance is November's high crossing at $12.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $11.42 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.07 3/4.



March soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $371.10 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $398.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $377.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $371.10.       



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, monthly resistance crossing at 41.25 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 36.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 38.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 41.25. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 36.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 35.18.     

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.60 at $66.20. 



February hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at $62.75 is the next downside target. If February renews the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $72.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $69.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $72.80. First support is November's low crossing at $62.75. Second support is September's crossing at $61.55.     



February cattle closed down $0.20 at $110.83 



February cattle close higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off the November 24th high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. February extends the decline off the November 24th high, the November 20th low crossing at $109.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If First resistance is the November 24th high crossing at $114.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $115.45. First support is the November 20th low crossing at $109.00. Second support is October's low crossing at $105.53. 



January Feeder cattle closed down $0.38 at $137.20. 


January Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $139.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $143.48. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $147.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.47. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $133.00.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 11.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 12.80 is the next upside target.    



March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.59 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                     



March sugar closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.87 signal that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 14.33 would open the door for a possible test of the October 30th low crossing at 13.94. 



March cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 79.56 is the next upside target. If March extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 70.84 is the next downside target.  

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By metmike - Dec. 10, 2020, 3:58 p.m.
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