INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 11, 2020, 7:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, December 11, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. November PPI



                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)



                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)



                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.3%)



10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 75.8; previous 77.0)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 71.3)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 85.8)



  N/A              Deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown



Monday, December 14, 2020  



  N/A              G30 special report launch - 'Reviving and Restructuring the

                       Corporate Sector Post-COVID'


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as investors watched progress over the stimulus package out of Washington. Additional pressure came from concern over Brexit negotiations, and mixed news on COVID-19 vaccines. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,227.71 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 resumes the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 12,667.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,227.71. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at11,866.48.  



The March S&P 500 was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3619.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3706.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3619.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3497.83. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-12 would signal that a low has been open while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. If March renews the decline off the November 20th high, November's low crossing at 170-22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-12. Second resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 175-21. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.



March T-notes were higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.030 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off last-week's high, November's low crossing at 136.265 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.030. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 137.075. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $44.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $44.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.65.    



January heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $134.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $142.56. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $139.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $134.75. 



January unleaded gas was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the  50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $138.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $125.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $135.49. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $138.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $125.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.33. 



January Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.736 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target.First resistance resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.608. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.736. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.368. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $91.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $90.21 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving averagecrossing at $90.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at  $91.57. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $90.38. Second support is monthly support crossing at $90.21.



The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $122.03. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2020-decline crossing at $122.03. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $121.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.17. 



The March British Pound was sharply lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3153 is the next downside target.  If March renews the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3550. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3153. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2876.



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1408 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1128 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.1333. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1408. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1235. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1128. 



The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $78.74. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.88. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.24.  



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0957 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 0.0971 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0971. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0957. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0948.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1838.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1711.10 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1884.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1884.00. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1838.00. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.



March silver was was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $26.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 16th high crossing at $25.285. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $26.27. First support is September's low crossing at $21.930. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148. 



March copper was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.3918 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.6245. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.3918. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.2091.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.14 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $4.27 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $4.39 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.14 3/4. Second support is the October 29th low crossing at $3.93.    



March wheat was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally following Thursday's friendly WASDE report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.03 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.03 1/4. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $6.22 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.65 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.55.      

 

March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the November 25th high crossing at $5.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.49 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $5.75. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $5.86 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.27 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.09 3/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.64 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-October-rally crossing at $5.39 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.64 3/4. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $5.73. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.42 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-October-rally crossing at $5.39 1/4.    

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $11.42 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.09 3/4. If January renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2 is the next upside target.First resistance is November's high crossing at $12.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $11.42 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.09 3/4.



March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $371.70 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $398.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the overnight low crossing at $378.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $371.70.       



March soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, monthly resistance crossing at 41.25 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 36.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 38.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 41.25. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 36.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 35.28.     

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $1.35 at $64.93. 



February hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at $62.75 is the next downside target. If February renews the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $72.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $69.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $72.80. First support is November's low crossing at $62.75. Second support is September's crossing at $61.55.     



February cattle closed up $0.68 at $111.65 



February cattle close higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off the November 24th high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off the November 24th high, the November 20th low crossing at $109.00 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the November 24th high crossing at $114.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $115.45. First support is the November 20th low crossing at $109.00. Second support is October's low crossing at $105.53. 



January Feeder cattle closed up $0.48 at $137.50. 


January Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $139.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $143.48. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $147.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.42. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $133.00.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 12.80 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 11.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.     



March cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                    



March sugar closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.88. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 15.66 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 14.33 would open the door for a possible test of the October 30th low crossing at 13.94. 



March cotton closed higher on Thursday following a friendly supply-demand report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 79.56 is the next upside target. If March renews last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.00 is the next downside target.  

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 11, 2020, 2:35 p.m.
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Thank you tallpine!