KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, December 15, 2020
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 6.3)
Employment Idx (previous 9.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 3.7)
Prices Received (previous 11.3)
8:30 AM ET. November Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous -0.1%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -1%
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -2.4%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +2.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +2.1%)
9:15 AM ET. November Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 72.8%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.8)
4:00 PM ET. October Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.3M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, December 16, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 848.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 325.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3959.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +1.8%)
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 56.7)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 57.7)
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.7%)
10:00 AM ET. December NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 90)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 503.231M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +15.189M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 237.859M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.221M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 151.092M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.222M)
Refinery Usage (previous 79.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.534M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.066M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2020 (previous 0.1%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2021 (previous 0.1%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2022 (previous 0.1%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2023 (previous 0.1%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 0.25)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 0.00)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 0.25)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight despite the tightening of COVID-19 restrictions. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 resumes the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,282.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 12,667.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,282.16. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at11,913.79.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3629.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3706.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3629.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3509.91.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-08 would signal that a low has been open while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. If March renews the decline off the November 20th high, November's low crossing at 170-22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-08. Second resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 175-21. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.
March T-notes were lower overnight as they consolidate some of last-week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.020 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.250 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.020. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 137.075. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $44.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $44.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.97.
January heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $146.19. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $141.46. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.02.
January unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $138.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $124.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $135.49. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $138.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $124.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.47.
January Henry natural gas was lower overnight and working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.705 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target.First resistance resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.705. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 2.803. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.368. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $90.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $91.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $91.38. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.44. First support is Monday's low crossing at $90.35. Second support is monthly support crossing at $90.21.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range below the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $122.03. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2020-decline crossing at $122.03. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the December 9th low crossing at $120.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.47.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3170 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the December 4th high crossing at 1.3550. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3170. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2876.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1408 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1160 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.1334. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1408. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1278. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1160.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $78.74. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.14. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.45.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 0.0971 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0957 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0971. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0957. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0948.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $1826.80 would open the door for a larger-degree correction off last-Tuesday's high. If February resumes the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1881.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1881.00. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1820.00. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.
March silver was was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signal sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $26.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 16th high crossing at $25.285. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $26.27. First support is November's low crossing at $21.960. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148.
March copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4236 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.6245. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4236. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.2312.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight while extending this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $4.27 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.16 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $4.39 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.16. Second support is the October 29th low crossing at $3.93.
March wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp sell off. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's rally, November's high crossing at $6.28 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.89 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $6.22 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $6.28 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.89 1/4. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.65 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.55 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.55 1/4. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.30 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's rally, November's high crossing at $5.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.55 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $5.74. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $5.86. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.55 3/4. Second support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $11.42 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.15 3/4.First resistance is November's high crossing at $12.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at $11.42 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.15 3/4.
March soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $373.20 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $398.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $377.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $373.20.
March soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, monthly resistance crossing at 41.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 36.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 38.76. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 41.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 36.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 35.54.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $2.38 at $65.60.
February hogs closed sharply higher on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at $62.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $67.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.12. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $67.25. First support is November's low crossing at $62.75. Second support is September's crossing at $61.55.
February cattle closed down $0.25 at $113.00
February cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.49. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends last-week's rally, the November 24th high crossing at $114.70 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off the November 24th high, the November 20th low crossing at $109.00 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the November 24th high crossing at $114.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $115.45. First support is the November 20th low crossing at $109.00. Second support is October's low crossing at $105.53.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.13 at $140.68.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $145.30 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $137.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is this month's high crossing at $142.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.14.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed sharply higher on Monday as it renewed the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 12.80 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 11.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.89 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off November's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the October 30th low crossing at 13.94 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 15.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Monday as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 79.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.