KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, December 17, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1362.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 737K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 616.5K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 808K; previous 853K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +137K)
Continuing Claims (previous 5757000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +230K)
8:30 AM ET. November New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.52M ; previous 1.530M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -0.7%; previous +4.9%)
Building Permits (expected 1.55M; previous 1.545M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
8:30 AM ET. December Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 20; previous 26.3)
Prices Paid (previous 38.9)
Employment (previous 27.2)
New Orders (previous 37.9)
Prices Received (previous 25.4)
Delivery Times (previous 18)
Inventories (previous 1.8)
Shipments (previous 24.9)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3848B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -91B)
11:00 AM ET. Dec Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 20)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 31)
Mfg Composite Idx (expected 10; previous 11)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 20)
3:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, December 18, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -186.9B; previous -170.5B)
10:00 AM ET. November Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.7%)
Leading Index (previous 108.2)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. November State Employment and Unemployment
Monday, December 21, 2020
8:30 AM ET. November CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.83)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.75)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday but remains above 30,000. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29,887.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 30,325.79. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29,887.69. Second support is the November 12th low crossing at 28,902.13.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,322.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,682.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,322.11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,945.08.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3633.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3712.49. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3633.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3522.93.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed down 9/32's at 173-29.
March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of last-week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline the November 20th high, November's low crossing at 170-22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-06 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-06. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 177-06. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.
March T-notes closed down 10-pts. at 137.285.
March T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off the December 4th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.261 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 138.070 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted and open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 138.070. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 137.075. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $45.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $48.12. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $45.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $42.40.
February heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $148.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $143.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.82.
February unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $136.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $126.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $135.74. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $136.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.70.
February Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.696 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.696. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 2.797. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.393. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 88.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.27. First support is today's low crossing at 90.05. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15.
The March Euro closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 122.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 120.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.62.
The March British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3183 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of November's low crossing at 1.2876. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3568. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3183. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2876.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it spiked to a new high for the year in early-trading. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the September-2019 high crossing at 1.1408 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1175 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.1365. Second resistance is the September-2019 high crossing at 1.1408. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1290. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1175.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at 79.09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 78.85. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at 79.09. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.57.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 0.0971 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0958 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Today's high crossing at 0.0970. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0971. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0958. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0948.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1880.80 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $1711.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1880.80. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is November's low crossing at $1767.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $1711.10.
March silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 26.270 is the next upside target.Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 23.630 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 25.490. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 26.270. First support is November's low crossing at 21.960. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 21.148.
March copper closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 362.45. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.17. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.41.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up $0.02 1/2-cent at $4.27 1/4.
March corn closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 2nd low crossing at $4.14 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $4.39 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First support is the November 2nd low crossing at $4.14 1/2. Second support is the October 29th low crossing at $3.96.
March wheat closed down $0.01 1/4-cents at $5.98.
March wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off last-Monday's low, November's high crossing at $6.28 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $6.22 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $6.28 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at $5.71. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.55.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04 1/2-cents at $5.61 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.55 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes last-week's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $6.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at crossing at $5.87 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $6.12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.55 3/4. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.30 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $5.58 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's sell off. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.55 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends last-week's rally, November's high crossing at $5.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at crossing at $5.74. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $5.86. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.56. Second support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $11.83 3/4.
January soybeans closed fractionally lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below December's low crossing at $11.42 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.19 later this month. First resistance is November's high crossing at $12.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at $11.42 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.19.
March soybean meal closed up $5.00 to $393.90.
March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $374.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $398.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $377.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $374.30.
March soybean oil closed down 19-pts. at 38.72.
March soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, monthly resistance crossing at 41.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 2nd low crossing at 36.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 39.06. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 41.25. First support is the December 2nd low crossing at 36.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 35.66.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.15 at $66.00.
February hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $67.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at $62.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.26. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $67.15. First support is November's low crossing at $62.75. Second support is September's crossing at $61.55.
February cattle closed up $0.98 at $113.85
February cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends today's rally, the November 24th high crossing at $114.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.93 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If First resistance is the November 24th high crossing at $114.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $115.45. First support is the December 8th low crossing at $110.55. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $109.00.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.10 at $142.00.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $145.30 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $137.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $142.15. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.32.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, the October 30th low crossing at 13.94 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 15.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 79.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.