KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, December 29, 2020
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)
9:00 AM ET. October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (expected +6.9%; previous +6.6%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +7%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.0M)
Wednesday, December 30, 2020
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. December Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 56.0; previous 58.2)
10:00 AM ET. November Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 128.9)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected -0.3%; previous -1.1%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +20.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 499.534M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.562M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 237.754M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.125M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 148.934M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.325M)
Refinery Usage (previous 78.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.088M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.247M)
3:00 PM ET. November Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Thursday, December 31, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 835K; previous 803K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -89K)
Continuing Claims (previous 5337000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -170K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 651.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 517.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 417.7K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3574B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -152B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A SEC Chairman Jay Clayton steps down
Friday, January 1, 2021
N/A U.S.: New Year's Day. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow posted a new record high on Monday as Trump signs the Covid-19 relief package. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 29,755.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 30,525.56. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 29,755.53. Second support is the November 12th low crossing at 28,902.13.
The March NASDAQ 100 posted a new record high close on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 12,461.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,854.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 12,461.00. Second support is the December 12th low crossing at 12,217.00.
The March S&P 500 posted a new high close for the year on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 3636.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3727.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3636.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3550.42.
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March T-bonds closed up 2/32's at 171-28.
March T-bonds closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off the November 20th high, November's low crossing at 170-22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-23 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-23. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 177-06. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.
March T-notes closed up 35-pts. at 137.315.
March T-notes closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 16th low crossing at 137.195 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 138.070 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 138.300. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 138.070. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the December 16th low crossing at 137.195. Second support is the December 4th low crossing at 137.075.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil closed lower on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $46.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $49.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $46.89. Second support is December's low crossing at $44.10.
February heating oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $151.88. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.12. Second support is December's low crossing at $134.29.
February unleaded gas closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $131.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $139.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.44. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.38.
February Henry natural gas gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends today's decline, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target. Closes above today's gap crossing at 2.507 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's gap crossing at 2.507. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 2.775. First support is today's low crossing at 2.263. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 21st high crossing at 90.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 88.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.57. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.90. First support is December's low crossing at 89.64. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15.
The March Euro closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 123.04. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.78. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 120.90.
The March British Pound closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3257 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of November's low crossing at 1.2876. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3643. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3257. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2876.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1271 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this month's rally, the September-2019 high crossing at 1.1408 is the next upside target.First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.1371. Second resistance is the September-2019 high crossing at 1.1408. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1271. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1122.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 78.87. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at 79.09. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.95. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at 75.96.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0960 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 0.0974. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0960. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed lower on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1855.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $1973.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 16th high crossing at $1904.30. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the December 14th low crossing at $1820.00. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.
March silver closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the September 15th high crossing at 28.015 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.595 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 27.635. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at 28.015. First support is the reaction low crossing at 23.630. Second support is November's low crossing at 21.960.
March copper closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 347.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 364.46. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 347.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 331.66.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up $0.05 3/4-cents at $4.56 1/2.
March corn closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the June-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.64 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.30 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $4.56 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2019 high on the weekly chart crossing at $4.64 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.38 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.30 1/2.
March wheat closed down $0.12 1/4-cents at $6.14 3/4.
March wheat closed sharply lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $6.37 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.98 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.33 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $6.37 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.98 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at $5.71.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.11 1/2-cents at $5.77 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $6.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.62 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at crossing at $5.87 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $6.12. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.62 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $5.30 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.06-cents at $5.76 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $5.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.61 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at crossing at $5.86 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $5.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.61 3/4. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $5.54 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down $0.07 1/4-cents at $12.57 1/4.
March soybeans posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $12.89 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $12.80 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $12.89 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.43 1/4.
March soybean meal closed down $2.30 to $411.80.
March soybean meal closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $432.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $393.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $422.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $432.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $403.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $393.70.
March soybean oil closed down 11-pts. at 41.02.
March soybean oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline crossing at 42.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 41.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline crossing at 42.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 39.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.64.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.53 at $66.43.
February hogs closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at $69.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $64.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $68.13. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $69.60. First support is December's low crossing at $63.00. Second support is November's low crossing at $62.75.
February cattle closed up $0.85 at $115.83
February cattle closed higher on Monday as it renewed the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If February renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If First resistance is today's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.00.
March Feeder cattle closed unchanged at $142.33.
March Feeder cattle closed unchanged on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $145.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.74. Second support is the December 7th low crossing at $137.25.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.14 would open the door for a larger-degree decline.
March sugar closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 15.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the October 30th low crossing at 13.94 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last-Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 79.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.