KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, December 29, 2020
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)
9:00 AM ET. October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (expected +6.9%; previous +6.6%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +7%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.0M)
Wednesday, December 30, 2020
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. December Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 56.0; previous 58.2)
10:00 AM ET. November Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 128.9)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected -0.3%; previous -1.1%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +20.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 499.534M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.562M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 237.754M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.125M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 148.934M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.325M)
Refinery Usage (previous 78.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.088M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.247M)
3:00 PM ET. November Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Thursday, December 31, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 835K; previous 803K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -89K)
Continuing Claims (previous 5337000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -170K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 651.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 517.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 417.7K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3574B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -152B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A SEC Chairman Jay Clayton steps down
Friday, January 1, 2021
N/A U.S.: New Year's Day. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 12,461.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 12,898.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 12,461.00. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,094.60.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 3637.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3744.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 3637.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3555.65.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off the November 20th high, December's low crossing at 171-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-21 would signal that a low has been open while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-21. Second resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 175-21. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.
March T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 137.195 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 138.080 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 138.080. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 137.075. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $47.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $49.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $47.04. Second support is December's low crossing at $44.10.
February heating oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $151.88. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.76. Second support is the December 2nd low crossing at $134.29.
February unleaded gas was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $132.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $139.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $132.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.82.
February Henry natural gas was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 2.507 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is the December 22nd high crossing at 2.775. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.893. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.263. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $88.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.83. First support is December's low crossing at $89.64. Second support is monthly support crossing at $88.15.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $123.04. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.94. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at $120.90.
The March British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3268 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3643. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3268. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2876.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1243 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1408 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.1371. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1408. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1243. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1129.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.15 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.00 is the next downside target. If March resumes this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $78.85. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.00. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at $75.96.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0965 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 0.0974. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0965. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0961.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to slightly lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November 16th high crossing at $1904.30 would open the door for a possible test of November's high. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1860.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 16th high crossing at $1904.30. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the December 14th low crossing at $1820.00. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.
March silver was was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the September 15th high crossing at $28.015 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.632 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $28.015. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $29.380. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.632. Second support is November's low crossing at $21.960.
March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's crossing at 3.4780 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.6455. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is last-Tuesday's crossing at 3.4780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.3266.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the June-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.64 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.57 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.64 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.41 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.32.
March wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.00 would signal that a double top with October's high has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $6.37 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.33 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $6.37 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.00. Second support is the December 7th low crossing at $5.65 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat was steady to higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.63 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.12. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.63 3/4. Second support is the December 7th low crossing at $5.30 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $5.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.85. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $5.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.63. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $5.54 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.47 1/2. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $12.89 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $12.80 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $12.89 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.33 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.98.
March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the correction off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $394.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $432.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $422.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $432.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $406.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $394.70.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline crossing at 42.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 41.39. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline crossing at 42.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 39.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.82.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.53 at $66.43.
February hogs closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at $69.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $64.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $68.13. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $69.60. First support is December's low crossing at $63.00. Second support is November's low crossing at $62.75.
February cattle closed up $0.85 at $115.83
February cattle closed higher on Monday as it renewed the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If February renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If First resistance is today's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.00.
March Feeder cattle closed unchanged at $142.33.
March Feeder cattle closed unchanged on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $145.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.74. Second support is the December 7th low crossing at $137.25.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.14 would open the door for a larger-degree decline.
March sugar closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 15.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the October 30th low crossing at 13.94 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last-Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 79.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
NG, Jan expires today.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/63363/
South America weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/62048/
Exports:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/60859/
Soybeans soaring:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/60859/