INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 31, 2020, 8:04 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, December 31, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 835K; previous 803K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -89K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 5337000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -170K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 651.1K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 517.8K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 417.7K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3574B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -152B)

                       

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



  N/A              SEC Chairman Jay Clayton steps down



Friday, January 1, 2021  



  N/A              U.S.: New Year's Day. Financial markets closed


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 12,461.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 12,918.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 12,461.00. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,141.72.  



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 3637.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3738.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 3637.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3567.22. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off the November 20th high, December's low crossing at 171-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-18 would signal that a low has been open while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-18. Second resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 175-21. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.



March T-notes were steady to lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral  to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 137.195 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 138.080 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 138.080. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 137.075. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil was lower overnight as it continues to form a small symmetrical triangle. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's crossing at $46.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $49.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $46.16. Second support is December's low crossing at $44.10.    



February heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at $143.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $151.88. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. First support is the December 21st low crossing at $143.08. Second support is the December 2nd low crossing at $134.29.



February unleaded gas was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at $131.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $139.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11. First support is the December 21st low crossing at $131.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.26. 



February Henry natural gas was higher overnight and filled Monday's gap crossing at 2.507 as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 2.507 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target. First resistance resistance is the December 22nd high  crossing at 2.775. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.859. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.263. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $88.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.70. First support is the overnight low crossing at $89.47. Second support is monthly support crossing at $88.15.



The March Euro was steady to lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week's rally.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $123.30. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.12. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at $120.90.

 

The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3296 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3693. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3296. Second support is  December's low crossing at 1.3146.



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1408 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1243 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.1387. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1408. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1243. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1143. 



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are   neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. If March renews the  decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $78.85. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.09. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at $75.96.  



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 28th low crossing at 0.0964 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 0.0974. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 0.0964. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0962. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to slightly lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November 16th high crossing at $1904.30 would open the door for a possible test of November's high. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1867.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 16th high crossing at $1904.30. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the December 14th low crossing at $1820.00. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.



March silver was was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the September 15th high crossing at $28.015 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.707 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $28.015. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $29.380. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.707. Second support is November's low crossing at $21.960. 



March copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower  opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's crossing at 3.4780 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target.  First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.6455. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is last-Tuesday's crossing at 3.4780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.3431.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the May-2014 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $4.81 1/2. Second resistance is the May-2014 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.52 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.38.     



March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.67 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/2 would signal that a double top with October's high has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $6.44 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.67 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/2. Second support is the December 7th low crossing at $5.65 1/2. 

 

March Kansas City wheat was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.63 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.12. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.63 3/4. Second support is the December 7th low crossing at $5.30 3/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $6.06 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.67 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.97 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $6.06 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.78 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.67 1/4.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans were higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $13.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $13.20 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $13.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.61 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.15.



March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $439.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $399.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $432.50. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $439.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $415.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $399.70.       



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 42.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 42.23. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 42.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 40.69. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.38.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.48 at $67.68. 



February hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at $69.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at  $64.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $69.15. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $69.60. First support is December's low crossing at $63.00. Second support is November's low crossing at $62.75. 



February cattle closed down $0.18 at $114.40 



February cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are  turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.18.   



March Feeder cattle closed down $1.43 at $139.80. 


March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.75 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $137.10 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $145.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $137.10. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.         



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target.     



March cocoa closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 26.04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                       



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 15.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 



March cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it posted a new high for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 79.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.   

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