KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, January 5, 2021  

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous  +0.4%)

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +8.9%)

9:45 AM ET. December ISM-NY Report on Business

                       Business Index (previous 44.2)

10:00 AM ET. December ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 57.0; previous 57.5)

                       Prices Idx (previous 65.4)

                       Employment Idx (previous 48.4)

                       Inventories (previous 51.2)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 65.1)

                       Production Idx (previous 60.8)

10:00 AM ET. November Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

11:00 AM ET. World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report

4:00 AM ET. December Domestic Auto Industry Sales

4:30 AM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.8M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.7M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.9M)

  N/A              U.S. Senate runoff elections in Georgia

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow posted its sharpest decline in weeks on Monday as investors facing concerns around the potential for borrowing costs to rise, the spread of COVID-19 and the slow pace of the vaccine roll-out.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the December 21^st low crossing at 29,755.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is today's high crossing at 30,674.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21^st low crossing at 29,755.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29,346.79.  

The March NASDAQ 100 posted a key reversal down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging  and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near.Closes below the December 21^st low crossing at 12,461.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,959.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21^st low crossing at 12,461.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,161.41.   

The March S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 3636.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3769.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3636.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3573.75.  

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March T-bonds closed down 1/32's at 172-30.

March T-bonds closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish  signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-17 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. If March resumes the decline off the November 20^th high, November's low crossing at 170-22 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-17. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 177-06. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22. 

March T-notes closed up 10-pts. at 138.035.

March T-notes closed higher on Monday as it extends December's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 16th low crossing at 137.195 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 138.070 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 138.300. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 138.070. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the December 16th low crossing at 137.195. Second support is the December 4th low crossing at 137.075.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

February crude oil posted a key reversal down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 23^rd low crossing at $46.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $49.83. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is the December 23^rd low crossing at $46.16. Second support is December's low crossing at $44.10.  

February heating oil posted a key reversal down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 21^st low crossing at $143.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43. First support is the December 21^st low crossing at  $143.08. Second support is December's low crossing at $134.29. 

February unleaded gas posted a key reversal down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $134.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $145.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.27.    

February Henry natural gas gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends last-week's rally, the December 22^nd high crossing at 2.775 is the next upside target. If February resumes last-year's decline, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 22^nd high crossing at 2.775. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.843. First support is December's low crossing at 2.263. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179. 

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar closed lower on Monday but well off session lows. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, monthly support crossing at 88.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 21^st high crossing at 90.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.65. First support is today's low crossing at 89.39. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15. 

The March Euro closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last-Thursday's loss. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 123.30. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.13. Second support is the December 9^th low crossing at 120.90.  

The March British Pound posted a key reversal down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3470 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3304. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3407. Second support is the 50-day moving average  crossing at 1.3304. 

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 1.1241 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.1406. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1147.

The March Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.97. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.14. Second support is the November 13^th low crossing at 75.96.

The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have    turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0962 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0974. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0962. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.  

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

February gold gapped up and closed sharply higher on Monday as it renewed the rally off November's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at  $1872.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends  the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $1973.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1948.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the December 14th low crossing at $1820.00. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.

March silver closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the September 15^th high crossing at 28.015 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.748 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 27.760. Second resistance is the September 15^th high crossing at 28.015. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.459. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.748. 

March copper closed higher on Monday as it extends December's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 345.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 364.46. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 345.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 335.06. 

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March Corn closed down a $0.00 1/4-cent at $4.83 3/4. 

March corn closed fractionally lower on Monday as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to fractionally lower opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.41 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $4.97 3/4. Second resistance is the May-2014 high on the monthly chart crossing at $5.22 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.58 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.41 1/4.    

March wheat closed up $0.01 1/2-cents at $6.42.  

March wheat closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.08 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.50 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.25 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.08 3/4.       

March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04-cents at $5.99 1/2.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's  rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.64 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.13 3/4. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.86 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.64 1/2.      

March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.00 1/4-cents at $5.99. 

March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to fractionally lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.67 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at crossing at $6.00. Second resistance is the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.82 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.69 3/4.      

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans closed up $0.02-cents at $13.13.

March soybeans closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last-March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $13.49 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $14.07 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.71 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.22.

March soybean meal closed down $5.70 to $423.60. 

March soybean meal posted a huge key reversal down as it closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $401.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $440.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $418.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $401.50.       

March soybean oil closed down 28-pts. at 42.12. 

March soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close  sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March   extends the rally off October's low, the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 44.07. Second resistance is the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 41.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.63.      

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

February hogs closed up $1.10 at $71.38. 

February hogs gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it started the new-year on a high note. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $72.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.53. Second support is December's low crossing at $63.00.  

February cattle closed down $2.93 at $112.10 

February cattle posted a key reversal down as it closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $109.00.   

March Feeder cattle closed down $4.08 at $136.15. 

March Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at $137.55 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the November 20^th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $141.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is today's crossing at $135.40. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.         

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

March coffee closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.     

March cocoa posted a key reversal down with today's lower close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above today's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16^th gap crossing at 23.95.                        

March sugar gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 

March cotton closed higher on Monday as it posted a new high for the year. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.