INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 5, 2021, 8:02 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Tuesday, January 5, 2021  



7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous  +0.4%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +8.9%)



9:45 AM ET. December ISM-NY Report on Business



                       Business Index (previous 44.2)



10:00 AM ET. December ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI



                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 57.0; previous 57.5)



                       Prices Idx (previous 65.4)



                       Employment Idx (previous 48.4)



                       Inventories (previous 51.2)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 65.1)



                       Production Idx (previous 60.8)



10:00 AM ET. November Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment



11:00 AM ET. World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report



4:00 AM ET. December Domestic Auto Industry Sales



4:30 AM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.8M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.7M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.9M)



  N/A              U.S. Senate runoff elections in Georgia


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp loss. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 12,959.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is  the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,183.65.  



The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3748.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing  at 3579.14. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle off the November high and low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to  lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-17 would signal that a low has been open while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. If March renews the decline off the November 20th high, December's low crossing at 171-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-17. Second resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 175-21. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.



March T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 21st high crossing at 138.080 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 137.195 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the December 21st high crossing at 138.080. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 137.075. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at $46.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $49.83. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at $46.16. Second support is December's low crossing at $44.10.    



February heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at $143.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43. First support is the December 21st low crossing at $143.08. Second support is the December 2nd low crossing at $134.29.



February unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at $130.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $145.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11. First support is the December 21st low crossing at $130.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.76.



February Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the December 28th low crossing at 2.263. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the December 22nd high crossing at 2.775 is the next upside target.If February renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target. First resistance resistance is the December 22nd high  crossing at 2.775. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.830. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 2.263. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI  remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $88.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.59. First support is Monday's low crossing at $89.39. Second support is monthly support crossing at $88.15.



The March Euro was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $123.30. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.20. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at $120.90.

 

The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3314 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3477. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3314.  



The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends this winter's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1408. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1153.



The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $78.97. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.18. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at $75.96.  



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 28th low crossing at 0.0964 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0974. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 0.0964. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0962. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at $1973.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1878.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1954.60. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1878.40. Second support is the December 14th low crossing at $1820.00.  



March silver was was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the September 15th high crossing at $28.015 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.798 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $28.015. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $29.380. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.798. Second  support is November's low crossing at $21.960. 



March copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher  opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.6455. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.3592.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the May-2014 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.44 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.97 3/4. Second resistance is the May-2014 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.63 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.44 1/2.     



March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.12 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $6.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.29 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average  crossing at $6.12 1/2. 

 

March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally of August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.65 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.12. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.90 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.75 1/2.



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends this winter's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.72 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $6.06 1/4. Second resistance is the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.86 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.72 3/4.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans were sharply higher overnight as they extend this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.30 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $13.49 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.82 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.30 1/2.



March soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to  lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $403.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $440.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $420.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $403.70.      



March soybean oil was sharply higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 44.07. Second resistance is the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 41.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.87.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $1.10 at $71.38. 



February hogs gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it started the new-year on a high note. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $72.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.53. Second support is December's low crossing at $63.00.  



February cattle closed down $2.93 at $112.10 



February cattle posted a key reversal down as it closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $109.00.   



March Feeder cattle closed down $4.08 at $136.15. 


March Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at $137.55 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $141.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is today's crossing at $135.40. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.         



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.     



March cocoa posted a key reversal down with today's lower close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above today's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95.                        



March sugar gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 



March cotton closed higher on Monday as it posted a new high for the year. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.   

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 5, 2021, 12:19 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!


Rains still picking up in week 2 for very dry Argentina

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/62048/

                                   


                            

Exports:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/63716/

                                   


                                       

Natural gas....pattern change to colder:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/63363/