INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 5, 2021, 4:42 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, January 6, 2021  



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 863.9)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.8%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 316.3)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.6%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 4169.0)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.8%)



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 863.9)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.8%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 316.3)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.6%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 4169.0)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.8%)



8:15 AM ET. December ADP National Employment Report



                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +60000; previous +307000)



9:45 AM ET. December US Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (expected 55.1; previous 58.4)



10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)



                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +1.0%)



                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.5%)



                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.0%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M%



                       Durable Goods, M/M%



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 493.5M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.1M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 236.6M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.2M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 152.0M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.1M)



                       Refinery Usage



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)



11:00 AM ET. December Global Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 52.2)



2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 29,755.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 30,674.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 29,755.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29,391.25.  



The March NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 12,959.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,185.14.   



The March S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 3636.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3748.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3636.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3579.14.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 30/32's at 172-03.

  

March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off the November 20th high, November's low crossing at 170-22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-16 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-16. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 177-06. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22. 



March T-notes closed down 80-pts. at 137.275.



March T-notes closed lower on Tuesday as it extends December's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 16th low crossing at 137.195 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 138.070 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 138.300. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 138.070. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the December 16th low crossing at 137.195. Second support is the December 4th low crossing at 137.075.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at $46.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $50.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at $46.16. Second support is December's low crossing at $44.10.  



February heating oil closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at $143.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43. First support is the December 21st low crossing at  $143.08. Second support is December's low crossing at $134.29. 



February unleaded gas posted a key reversal up on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $135.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $145.86. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.14. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at $130.27.    



February Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the December 22nd high crossing at 2.775 is the next upside target. If February resumes last-year's decline, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 22nd high crossing at 2.775. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.831. First support is December's low crossing at 2.263. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179. 



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed lower on Tuesday posted a new contract low close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, monthly support crossing at 88.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 21st high crossing at 90.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.24. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.58. First support is today's low crossing at 89.39. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15. 



The March Euro closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 123.30. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.22. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 120.90.  



The March British Pound posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3480 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3315. If March extends the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3480. Second support is the 50-day moving average  crossing at 1.3315. 

 

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 1.1241 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.1417. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1154.



The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.03. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.19. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at 75.96.



The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0962 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0962. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



February gold closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $1973.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at  $1878.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1957.00. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1896.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1878.40.



March silver closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the September 15th high crossing at 28.015 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.625 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 27.850. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at 28.015. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.625. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.801. 



March copper closed higher on Tuesday and breaking out to the topside of December's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 345.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 366.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 345.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 335.06. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed down a $0.08-cents at $4.91 3/4. 



March corn closed posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.44 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08. Second resistance is the May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.44 3/4.    



March wheat closed up $0.12-cents at $6.54.  



March wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.12 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.29 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.12 3/4.       



March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.09 3/4-cents at $6.09 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's  rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.75 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.90 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.75 3/4.      



March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.08 1/4-cents at $6.07 1/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.72 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at crossing at $6.13 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.86 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.72 3/4.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed up $0.34-cents at $13.47.



March soybeans closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.31 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $13.73 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $14.07 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.84 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.31 1/2.



March soybean meal closed up $8.10 to $431.80. 



March soybean meal posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $404.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $440.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $421.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $404.00.       



March soybean oil closed up 156-pts. at 43.69. 



March soybean oil posted an inside day with a sharply higher close on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 44.07. Second resistance is the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 41.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.91.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.48 at $70.75. 



February hogs closed lower on Tuesday and filled Monday's gap as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $72.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.74. Second support is December's low crossing at $63.00.  



February cattle closed up $2.70 at $115.00 



February cattle posted a key reversal up on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55. If February resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $109.00.   



March Feeder cattle closed up $1.43 at $137.45. 


March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $140.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is today's crossing at $134.85. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.         



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target.      



March cocoa closed lower on Tuesday confirming Monday's key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                        



March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 



March cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off last-April's high and posted a new high for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.  Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.   

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