KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 7, 2021
7:30 AM ET. December Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -20%)
8:30 AM ET. November U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -67.3B; previous -63.1B)
Exports (USD) (previous 182.0B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +2.2%)
Imports (USD) (previous 245.1B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 815K; previous 787K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -19K)
Continuing Claims (previous 5219000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -103K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 964.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1011.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 520.6K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. December ISM Report on Business Services PMI
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 54.5; previous 55.9)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 58.0)
Prices Idx (previous 66.1)
Employment Idx (previous 51.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 57.2)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3460B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -114B)
12:00 PM ET. December Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, January 8, 2021
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +50K; previous +245K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 6.8%; previous 6.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.58)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.31%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.5%; previous +4.38%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.8)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous -99K)
Private Payroll (previous +344K)
Participation Rate (previous 61.5%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +1.1%)
3:00 PM ET. November Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +9.0B; previous +7.2B)
Monday, January 11, 2021
10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 98.81)
ETI, Y/Y%
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 resumes the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 12,959.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,229.65.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3748.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3590.68.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the November high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-10 would signal that a low has been open while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-10. Second resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 175-21. First support is the overnight low crossing at 169-02. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, November's low crossing at 136.265 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 21st high crossing at 138.080 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the December 21st high crossing at 138.080. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the overnight low crossing at 137.005. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at $46.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $51.28. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at $46.16. Second support is December's low crossing at $44.10.
February heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at $143.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43. First support is the December 21st low crossing at $143.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.55.
February unleaded gas was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at $130.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $149.31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11. First support is the December 21st low crossing at $130.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.26.
February Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the December 28th low crossing at 2.263. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.807 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.559 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the December 22nd high crossing at 2.775. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.807. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 2.547. Second support is the December 28th low crossing at 2.263.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off the 2020 high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $88.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $90.13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.45. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at $88.15.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-March's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.39. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at $120.90.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3502 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3502. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3338.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this winter's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1165.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $79.19. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.30. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at $75.96.
The March Japanese Yen was sharply lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0963 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 0.0964. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0963.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1883.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at $1973.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $1962.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1883.20. Second support is the December 14th low crossing at $1820.00.
March silver was was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at $29.380 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.887 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $29.380. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $30.365. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $26.744. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.887.
March copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.7075. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.3819.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.52 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08. Second resistance is the May-2014 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.52 1/4.
March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.36. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.20.
March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.12. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.96 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.82.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this winter's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.78 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.13 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.78 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were steady to higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $13.78 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.07 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.52.
March soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $409.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $444.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $426.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $409.80.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.54.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $1.03 at $69.90.
February hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $72.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.99. Second support is December's low crossing at $63.00.
February cattle closed up $0.03 at $115.08
February cattle closed slightly higher on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal up. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55. If February resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $109.00.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.88 at $136.55.
March Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $134.85. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.41 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.