KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 28, 2018
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 218K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1723000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +22K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1114.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 506.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 194.8K)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.9%; previous +1.9%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +7.8%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.6%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.7%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +1.0%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2004B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +91B)
11:00 AM ET. June Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 41)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 32)
Mfg Composite Idx (expected 27; previous 29)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 26)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. June Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board releases latest Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review results
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, June 29, 2018
8:30 AM ET. May Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.3%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.8%)
9:45 AM ET. June ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 60.0; previous 62.7)
10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 99.0; previous 98.0)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 89.1)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 111.8)
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The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. Today's decline was due to a decline in technology stocks that offset a rally in the energy sector. Sentiment was once again driven by uncertainty over trade policy. In a recent development, the Trump administration said it would use existing laws to restrict Chinese investment in the U.S. instead of relying on more aggressive executive orders. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6978.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7208.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7208.13. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7358.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6978.82. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6855.50.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2721.41 opens the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2760.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2701.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2681.00.
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 23,531.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,829.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,829.43. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 25,402.83. First support is Monday's low crossing at 24,084.39. Second support is May's low crossing at 23,531.31.
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September T-bonds closed down 1-02/32's at 145-10.
September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday marking an upside breakout of this month's trading range.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 145-28 is the next upside target. Closes below June's low crossing at 142-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-06. First support is June's low crossing at 142-01. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.
September T-notes closed up 130-points at 120-130.
September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.103 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 120.130. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.
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August crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 73.06. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.08.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.55.
August heating oil closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.67 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 219.13 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 229.60. If August renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.13. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 206.89. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35.
August unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 211.56 would open the door for additional short-term gains. If August renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 211.56. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.78. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.
August Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off May's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.111, is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.890 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.043. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.890. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.8214.
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The September Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 95.22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.91. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.82.
The September Euro closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 119.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.42. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.
The September British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.3533 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3563. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3152. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. Closes above June's high crossing at 1.0302 would renew the rally off May's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431 is the next upside target. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0086. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.41 is needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.52. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.41. First support is today's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.8992 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9195 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9195. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is May's low crossing at 0.9051. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9006.
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August gold closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, last-December's low crossing at 1251.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1287.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1273.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1287.30. First support is today's low crossing at 1252.20. Second support is last-December's low crossing at 1251.90.
July silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the July-2017 low crossing at 15.767 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.574 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.5740. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 17.350. First support is today's low crossing at 15.945. Second support is the July-2017 low crossing at 15.767.
July copper closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 295.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.19 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 305.47. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.19. First support is today's low crossing at 296.05. Second support is March's low crossing at 295.85.
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July Corn closed down a 1/2-cent at 3.52.
July corn closed fractionally lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 3.35 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 3.59 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.59 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.38 3/4 Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.35 1/2.
July wheat closed up 9-cents at 4.78 1/2.
July wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 4.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.03 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.03 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing near 4.66 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 1/4-cents at 4.60 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.88 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.54. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down 5 3/4-cents at 5.27.
July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.51 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.51 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.27. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.
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July soybeans closed down a 1/2-cent at 8.66 3/4.
July soybeans closed fractionally lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.89 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second support is the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4.
July soybean meal closed up $0.10 at 333.80.
July soybean meal closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 349.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 317.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 335.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 349.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 320.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00.
July soybean oil closed up 3-points. At 28.97.
July soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.26. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.96. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 27.79. Second support is the November-2015 crossing at 26.99.
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July hogs closed up $1.10 at $80.23.
July hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 75.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.67 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.67. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 83.83. First support is Monday's low crossing at 77.98. Second support is June's low crossing at 75.20.
October cattle closed up $0.25 at 106.15.
October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 103.55 is the next downside target. Closes above April's high crossing at 110.05 would mark an upside breakout of the April-June trading range. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 109.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. First support is June's low crossing at 103.50. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.33 at $145.77.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 150.75. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 142.18.
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July coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.02 is the next downside target. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.21 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.12 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 81.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.76 would confirm that a low has been posted.