Analysts see a slight cut to production of U.S. #corn and #soybeans in USDA's Tuesday report. The small average changes somewhat mask the wider ranges of guesses. The 2.3 bpa spread on soy yield and 4.4 bpa on corn are the widest yield ranges for Jan report in at least 15 years.
The trade sees U.S. ending stocks for #corn and #soybeans falling by a larger degree than production. For soybeans, the predicted stocks would reflect just over 11 days of use and 39 days and change for corn. Note that none of the analysts see soy stocks up or unch from Dec.
Analysts see Dec. 1 U.S. #corn stocks at a 3-year high, #soybeans at a 4-year low, and #wheat at a 6-year low. It is important to remember that USDA *COULD* revise Sept. 1 stocks, too. Review of the previous quarter's stocks are part of the process each quarter.
USDA made a historically large revision to Sept. 1 corn stocks in January 2020. But USDA this past year moved the corn production review to Sept instead of Dec/Jan. So the big change in June 1, 2020 stocks is likely analogous to the large Sept. 1, 2019 change.
U.S. ending stocks were below expectations for #corn and #wheat but nearly dead-on for #soybeans. Wheat usage was increased slightly while corn demand was down across the board. Soybean demand (both crush and exports) increased slightly.
Analysts underestimated 2021 U.S. winter #wheat plantings, which come in at just under 32 million acres, up 5% from 2020. This is the first YOY increase in U.S. wheat plantings in 8 years. The biggest miss was in SRW wheat, where acres came in at the top of the trade range.
USDA's 172 bu/acre national #corn yield was a complete surprise for the market. Yield came down in many top states, incl. -10 bu in both Minnesota and Wisconsin and -6 bu in Iowa. Iowa's yield at 178 bu/acre is the worst since 2014 (also 178 bu/acre).
USDA reduced yield for U.S. #soybeans by 0.5 bu to 50.2 bu/acre. Increases and decreases were mixed among the top states. Keep in mind, this yield and #corn yield are subject to change again in September when USDA does its full 2020/21 review.
World #corn ending stocks came in slightly above trade expectations, #soybeans solidly above and #wheat solidly below. USDA increased #China corn imports by 1 mmt to 17.5 mmt, but left soy imports at 100 mmt. #Brazil & #Argentina corn/soy exports were both unch.