INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 8, 2021, 7:50 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, January 8, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +50K; previous +245K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 6.8%; previous 6.7%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.58)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.31%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.5%; previous +4.38%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.8)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous -99K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +344K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 61.5%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +1.1%)



3:00 PM ET. November Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +9.0B; previous +7.2B)





Monday, January 11, 2021 



10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 98.81)



                       ETI, Y/Y%


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and poised to resume the rally off Septembers low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 resumes the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 12,993.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is  the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,262.74.  



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally into uncharted territory. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this  morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3795.60. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3598.92. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's  decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the November high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-06 would signal that a low has been open while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-06. Second resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 175-21. First support is the overnight low crossing at 168-15. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart  crossing at 164-04.



March T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, November's low crossing at 136.265 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 21st high crossing at 138.080 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 138.055. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the overnight low crossing at 136.235. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.  Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.32 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low  crossing at $47.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $51.62. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.32. First support is Monday's low crossing at $47.31. Second support is the December 23rd low crossing at $46.30.    



March heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $145.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $156.51. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at $145.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $136.84.



March unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $153.51 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $136.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $151.22. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $153.51. First support is the December 21st low crossing at $131.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $127.42.



March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the December 28th low crossing at 2.268. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.547 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.745 is the next upside target.First resistance resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.745. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 2.910. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 2.537. Second support is the December 28thlow crossing at 2.268.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off the 2020 high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $90.07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $88.15 is the next downside target.First resistance is the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.38. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at $88.15.



The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-March's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.47. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at $120.90.

 

The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3510 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3510. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3348.  



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1170.



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.37 would  signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $79.19. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.37. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at $75.96.  



The March Japanese Yen was steady to lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0963 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 50-day  moving average crossing at 0.0963. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1885.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at $1973.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $1962.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1885.50. Second support is the December 14th low crossing at $1820.00.  



March silver was was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.022 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at $29.380 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $29.380. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $30.365. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.022. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.948. 



March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.7340. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.3951.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08. Second resistance is the May-2014 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.79 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.56.     



March wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.37 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.23. 

 

March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off August's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.12. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.84. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.67 1/2.



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.13 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.95 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.81.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.62 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $13.78 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.17 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.62 1/4.



March soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $412.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $444.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $427.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $412.30.       



March soybean oil was steady to higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.85.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.58 at $69.20. 



February hogs closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $72.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $68.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.17.  



February cattle closed up $0.18 at $115.18 



February cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If February resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $109.00.   



March Feeder cattle closed up $0.95 at $137.53. 


March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $134.85. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.         



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average  crossing at 11.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.     



March cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                        



March sugar posted a key reversal down and closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 



March cotton closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.61 would confirm that a short-term top  has been posted.   

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