KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 28, 2018
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 218K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1723000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +22K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1114.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 506.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 194.8K)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.9%; previous +1.9%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +7.8%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.6%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.7%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +1.0%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2004B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +91B)
11:00 AM ET. June Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 41)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 32)
Mfg Composite Idx (expected 27; previous 29)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 26)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. June Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board releases latest Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review results
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, June 29, 2018
8:30 AM ET. May Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.3%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.8%)
9:45 AM ET. June ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 60.0; previous 62.7)
10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 99.0; previous 98.0)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 89.1)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 111.8)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight hinting that the Dow may rebound after falling in 10 of the past 12 sessions as trade-related worries weighed. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6984.54 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7190.64 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6984.54. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6855.50.
The September S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 2681.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2760.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2701.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2681.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 145-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 142-22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 139-11.
September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's breakout above June's trading range. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.107 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 120.130. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 121.212. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: AugustNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low following this week's sharp decline in stocks. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 73.06. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.84.
August heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.21. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.
August unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 211.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 204.38 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 211.66. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.
August Henry natural gas was lower overnight while extending the trading range for the past four-weeks.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 3.043 or below the reaction low crossing at 2.883 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.043. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.893. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.883.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the gains off Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 95.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.94.
The September Euro was higher overnight. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off last-Thursday's low, the reaction high crossing at 119.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.25. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.
The September British Pound was lower overnight and posted a new low for the year.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3345 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3345. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3540. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3111. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1.0219 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0086. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 76.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.42. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.32. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.83.
The September Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.9051 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9189 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9189. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is June's low crossing at 0.9073. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.9051.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1284.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1268.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1284.90. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1249.60. Second support is last-December's low crossing at 1251.90.
July silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 15.805 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.539 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.539. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 17.350. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 15.945. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 15.805.
July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the September-2017 low crossing at 295.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.66 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 303.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.66. First support is the overnight low crossing at 295.55. Second support is the September-2017 low crossing at 295.10.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.65 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.59 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.65 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.38 3/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2.
July wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 4.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.85. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.66 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 1/4-cents at 4.60 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.88 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.54. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.69 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.46 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.69 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.27. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was lower overnight as it extends this week's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.28 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this year's decline, the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.83 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.28 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second support is the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4.
July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 346.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 317.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 339.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 346.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 320.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00.
July soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. However, the high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.85. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 27.79. Second support is the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed up $1.10 at $80.23.
July hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 75.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.67 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.67. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 83.83. First support is Monday's low crossing at 77.98. Second support is June's low crossing at 75.20.
October cattle closed up $0.25 at 106.15.
October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 103.55 is the next downside target. Closes above April's high crossing at 110.05 would mark an upside breakout of the April-June trading range. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 109.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. First support is June's low crossing at 103.50. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.33 at $145.77.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 150.75. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 142.18.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.02 is the next downside target. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.21 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.12 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 81.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.76 would confirm that a low has been posted.