Weather Thursday-top story/heat
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Started by metmike - June 28, 2018, 10:46 a.m.

Most weather maps on MarketForum are updated constantly, from radar images every few minutes to daily precip/models. This causes my descriptions of some of the maps(which only comes out with the initial post) to be outdated later on or the next day. Every day, we just start over again with new descriptions and new maps. Please enjoy the comprehensive coverage of your weather here!

High Temperatures today and Friday......cool in the Northeast. Blast furnace heat in S.Plains .........getting ready to move northeast.

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By metmike - June 28, 2018, 10:48 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7 shows  Heat!

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - June 28, 2018, 10:49 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year:

High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif



By metmike - June 28, 2018, 10:52 a.m.
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From the GFS ensemble mean products. Temperature anomalies for this coming weekend..........record heat Northeast..............cooling N.Plains.

NCEP Ensemble t = 096 hour forecast
NCEP Ensemble t = 096 hour forecast product

           


Temperature anomalies at the end of week 2.....most intense heat shifted west?  At least on the GFS ensembles but not all models.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:14 a.m.
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But the European model is MUCH different and  bullish with the  heat ridge farther east:

                   

Loading Maps...

By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
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CFS week 3 and 4...........HOT week 3, turning cooler week 4 and drier thru the period.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif


Precip belowhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:16 a.m.
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NWS guidance for 8-14 day forecast for this afternoon(sneak peak at what it will show)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/ens700_maps.d11.klnT.prb.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif

By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:24 a.m.
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Note: Main feature: Southern Midwest front.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

                    

By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:25 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image. Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:25 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image. Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:25 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


US Infrared Satellite Map


By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:29 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours...... not as much as recent days.


By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:33 a.m.
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By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:35 a.m.
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Excessive rain potential. Hit the map for full screen. 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 15Z 06/11/18 - 12Z 06/12/18

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 06/12/18 - 12Z 06/13/18

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - June 28, 2018, 11:37 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk. Push your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By tjc - June 28, 2018, 11:48 a.m.
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  So far, grains must 'feel' heat will be beneficial to dry wet areas with just enough precip to not affect crop.  NG, after spiking, appears to have built in the heat.

  Your thoughts?

  As always, much appreciated.

By Jim_M - June 28, 2018, 1:17 p.m.
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My opinion is that grains are too close to the USDA report tomorrow to react to anything else at the moment.  

By metmike - June 28, 2018, 1:48 p.m.
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Agree with Jim. 

Even without the report coming up, the market has not been able to hold any   overnight dome scare dead cat bounces.

Too wet, still too much rain coming, too much big fund selling, too bearish overall, for the week 2 hot/dry forecasts to inspire aggressive speculative buying that would almost always happen.

Soils are so wet right now that it makes it even tougher for a dome to move in and stay.

By wglassfo - June 28, 2018, 10:47 p.m.
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Hey Mike

We did get some rain to add to the 2" previously mentioned

From 1/2" to 1 1/4" depending on which farm

The rain really helped our drought stricken crops

Bracing ourselves for the heat