KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
6:00 AM ET. December NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 101.4)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
10:00 AM ET. January IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 49.0)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 46.3)
10:00 AM ET. November Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +7.1M)
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 827.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 313.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3917.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.0%)
8:30 AM ET. December CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.2%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.6%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Monday as investors remained optimistic about the prospects for the incoming Biden administration to oversee an economic recovery. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends last-week's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 29,881.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 31,193.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 29,881.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29,671.01.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last-week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 12,491.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 13,065.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 12,491.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,301.01.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last-week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 3636.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3824.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3636.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3607.80.
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March T-bonds closed down 18/32's at 168-06.
March T-bonds closed lower on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-01 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 171-06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 172-01. First support is today's low crossing at 168-02. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes closed down 90-pts. at 136.120.
March T-notes closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 138.055 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 138.055. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is today's low crossing at 136.120. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298.
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March crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $47.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.32. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $47.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $45.21.
March heating oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $145.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $158.84. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $145.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $137.75.
March unleaded gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $153.51. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.28. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at $131.52.
March Henry natural gas posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Monday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.746. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.736. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the November 30th high crossing at 2.910. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.573 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.736. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 2.910. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.573. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.268.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 21st high crossing at 90.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, monthly support crossing at 88.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 21st reaction high crossing at 90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.31. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15.
The March Euro closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 121.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 121.58. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 120.90.
The March British Pound closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3520 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3358. If March renews the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3520. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3358.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1174.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 79.19. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.43. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at 75.96.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0963 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 0.0956 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0960 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0958. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.
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February gold closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at $1767.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1899.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1962.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is today's low crossing at $1817.10. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.
March silver closed lower on Monday as it extends last-week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.953 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 29.380 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 28.105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 29.380. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.953. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 23.695.
March copper closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 345.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 373.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 345.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 340.48.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down $0.04-cents at $4.92 1/4.
March corn closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.59 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08. Second resistance is the May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.83 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.59 1/4.
March wheat closed down $0.04-cents at $6.34 3/4.
March wheat closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.24 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.24 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.09.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $5.94.
March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.85 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this winter's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.85 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.68 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.01 3/4-cents at $6.06.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.83 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at crossing at $6.14 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.98 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.83 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at $13.72 1/2.
March soybeans closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $13.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $14.07 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.29 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.73.
March soybean meal closed up $7.20 to $446.80.
March soybean meal closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $447.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $430.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.80.
March soybean oil closed down 96-pts. at 42.63.
March soybean oil closed sharply lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.08.
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February hogs closed down $0.20 at $68.50.
February hogs closed lower on Monday as it extended this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $72.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.79.
February cattle closed down $1.28 at $113.20
February cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is January's low crossing at $111.35. Second support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Third support is November's low crossing at $109.00.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.15 at $136.98.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it extends last-week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $134.85. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.89 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.
March cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!!