KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 14, 2021
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 748.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 116.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 281.3K)
8:30 AM ET. December Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous +0.1%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 800K; previous 787K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 5072000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -126K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. ABA Economic Advisory Committee economic forecast (virtual)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3330B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -130B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, January 15, 2021
8:30 AM ET. December PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous -1.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -0.9%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
8:30 AM ET. January Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected 6.0; previous 4.9)
Employment Idx (previous 14.2)
New Orders Idx (previous 3.4)
Prices Received (previous 10)
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 73.7%; previous 73.3%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +0.7%)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 79.4; previous 81.4)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 74.7)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 91.8)
Monday, January 18, 2021
N/A U.S: Martin Luther King Day. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as Biden’s stimulus plan fails to cheer COVID-19 worried investors. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 12,491.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 resumes the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 13,125.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 12,491.25. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,439.58.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3649.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3817.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3649.60. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 171-03 would signal that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off the November high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 169-16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 171-03. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 167-11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.136 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 134.298 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.306. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.136. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134.298.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $49.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $53.94. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $51.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $49.96.
March heating oil was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $152.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $162.46. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $156.29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $152.50.
March unleaded gas was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $157.40. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $150.48. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.45.
March Henry natural gas was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.610 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November 20th high crossing at 2.910 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.835. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 2.910. First support is last-Monday's gap crossing at 2.537. Second support is the December 28thlow crossing at 2.268.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to higher in overnight trading as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $91.00 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $88.15 is the next downside target.First resistance is the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.03. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at $88.15.
The March Euro was steady to lower overnight as it extends this month's decline.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.94 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.94. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33.
The March British Pound was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.3456 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3456. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3413.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1200.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this winter's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $79.23. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.69. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at $77.21.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0967 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 1.0956 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is December's low crossing at 0.0956. Second support is the November's low crossing at 0.0948.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at $1767.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1882.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1882.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1962.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1817.10. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.
March silver was was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $24.365 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $26.200 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $28.105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $29.380. First support is Monday's low crossing at $24.365. Second support is November's low crossing at $21.960.
March copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.7340. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4496.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.41 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.06 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.80.
March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.14.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.98 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.98 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.74 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $6.36. Second resistance is the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $6.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.98.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $15.39 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.21 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.82. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.21 1/2.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $431.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $446.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $431.20.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 39.09.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.55 at $66.30.
February hogs closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at $65.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.07. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $72.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at $65.77. Second support is December's low crossing at $63.00.
February cattle closed down $0.18 at $112.08
February cattle closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is January's low crossing at $111.35. Second support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Third support is November's low crossing at $109.00.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.95 at $133.38.
March Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $136.38. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.16. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $132.67. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.99 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.
March cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday as it renewed the rally off last-April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!!