KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 20, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 965.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +16.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 338.9)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +8.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 4706.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +20.1%)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -2.6%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +2.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +2.1%)
10:00 AM ET. January NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 86)
12:00 PM ET. U.S. Presidential Inaugural Ceremony
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.8M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.4M)
Thursday, January 21, 2021
8:30 AM ET. January Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 11.1)
Prices Paid (previous 27.1)
Employment (previous 8.5)
New Orders (previous 2.3)
Prices Received (previous 18)
Delivery Times (previous 18.5)
Inventories (previous 10.3)
Shipments (previous 14.4)
8:30 AM ET. December New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.547M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Building Permits (previous 1.639M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous +6.2%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 965K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +181K)
Continuing Claims (previous 5271000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +199K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, January 22, 2021
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1437.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1234K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 232K)
9:45 AM ET. January US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 56.5)
9:45 AM ET. January US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 55.3)
10:00 AM ET. December Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 6.69M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -2.5%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.3)
Median Price (USD) (previous 310800)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +14.6%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3196B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -134B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 482.211M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.248M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 245.476M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.395M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 163.205M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.786M)
Refinery Usage (previous 82.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.607M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +2.553M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 resumes the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,481.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 8th high crossing at 13,125.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,481.65. Second support is December's low crossing at 12,217.00.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3671.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 8th high crossing at 3817.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3671.17. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 170-24 would signal that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off the November high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 170-24. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 172-11. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 167-11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.110 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 134.298 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.110. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.196. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134.298.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $53.94. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $46.95.
March heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $153.41 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $162.46. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $153.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.15.
March unleaded gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $145.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $157.40. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $145.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $133.82.
March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the January 12th high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 2.268 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.673 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is the January 12th high crossing at 2.835. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 2.910. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.459. Second support is the December 28thlow crossing at 2.268.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.14 would temper this month's short covering rally. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $90.92 would open the door for a possible test of the November 30th reaction high crossing at $91.96. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.92. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $91.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.14. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at $89.16.
The March Euro was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.06 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.26 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.06. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33.
The March British Pound was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 1.3456 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.3716. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.3456. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3435.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1208 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1208. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $79.23. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.77. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at $77.21.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 1.0956 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0966 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is December's low crossing at 0.0956. Second support is the November's low crossing at 0.0948.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at $1767.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1877.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at$1877.80. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1962.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $1800.80. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.
March silver was was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $24.040 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.082 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $28.105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $29.380. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $24.040. Second support is November's low crossing at $21.960.
March copper was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending last-week's trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 8th high crossing at 3.7340. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4700.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower due to profit taking overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.88 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.41 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.12 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.88 1/4.
March wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.16.
March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off August's low, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is theDecember-2014 high crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.19 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $6.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $6.23 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.05.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were sharply lower due to profit taking overnight as they consolidates some of their recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.36 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $15.39 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.36 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.35.
March soybean meal was sharply lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends the decline off the January 13th high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $435.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $435.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $406.70.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.06 signals that a short-term top has been posted and opens the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 39.36 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 41.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 39.36.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $1.45 at $66.48.
February hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at $65.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 68.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 68.35. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $72.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at $65.77. Second support is December's low crossing at $63.00.
February cattle closed up $0.55 at $113.33
February cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is January's low crossing at $111.35. Second support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Third support is November's low crossing at $109.00.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.98 at $136.80.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $138.69 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $138.69. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $143.70. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $132.67. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 13.57 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the January 4th high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95.
March sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-April's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks a bunch tallpine!