KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 28, 2021
8:00 AM ET. IMF Fiscal Monitor update published
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +4.6%; previous +33.4%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.1%; previous +3.5%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.7%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.3%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +25.9%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.4%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +41.0%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 875K; previous 900K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -26K)
Continuing Claims (previous 5054000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -127K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1484K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2648.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 329.7K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. December Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
Leading Index (previous 109.1)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. December New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 874K; previous 841K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +3.9%; previous -11.0%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.1)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3009B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -187B)
11:00 AM ET. January Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 12)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 20)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 14)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 17)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 29, 2021
8:30 AM ET. December Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -1.1%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected -0.3%; previous -0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.4%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.5%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.4%)
9:45 AM ET. January Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 58.7; previous 59.5)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 79.2; previous 80.7)
End-Mo Expectations Idx Chicago PMI (previous 74.6)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 90.0)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee
Meeting (virtual)
10:00 AM ET. December Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 125.7)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -2.6%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +16.4%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve opted as expected to hold benchmark interest rates steady near zero and left unchanged its massive bond-buying program, following its first policy meeting of 2021. Investors remain focused on trading in video-game retailer GameStop Corp., which has increased more than 1,600% this month as well as a few other key heavily shorted stocks favored by Reddit’s wallstreetbets forum. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,296.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow resumes this month's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 31,272.22. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,296.24. Second support is January's low crossing at 29,881.82.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,638.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,559.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,638.82. Second support is the December 12th low crossing at 12,217.00.
The March S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3781.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3859.23. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3781.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3697.20.
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March T-bonds closed up 21/32's at 170-17.
March T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 170-00 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 172-01 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 170-25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 172-01. First support is January's low crossing at 167-11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes closed up 55 pts. at 137.175.
March T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.189 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.018 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.189. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 138.055. First support is January's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298.
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March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $53.94. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $48.08.
March heating oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $156.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $162.46. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $156.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $146.59.
March unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $150.41 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $158.44. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $137.63.
March Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.636 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 2.268 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 2.835. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 2.910. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.425. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.268.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday while extending this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off last-Friday's high, January's low crossing at 89.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.67. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 91.96. First support is January's low crossing at 89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15.
The March Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 120.68 would open the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 119.63. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 120.68. Second support is December's low crossing at 119.63.
The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday leaving Tuesday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3486 would confirm that a short-term top has been opened for additional weakness and a possible test of the December 21st low crossing at 1.3200. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3762. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3486. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at 1.3200.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday while extending this month's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1237 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1237. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 79.44. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.99. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at 75.96.
The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 0.0956 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0968 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0958. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.
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April gold closed lower on Wednesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at $1771.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1877.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1978.20. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1804.70. Second support is November's low crossing at $1771.30.
March silver closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 24.040 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.008 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at 28.105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 29.380. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 24.040. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 23.695.
March copper closed sharply lower on Wednesday while extending this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day low crossing at 351.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 8th high crossing at 373.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 351.66. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 345.00.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up $0.01 3/4-cents at $5.34.
March corn closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.06 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $5.43 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.06 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.60 1/2.
March wheat closed up $0.07-cents at $6.58 1/4.
March wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4 is the next upside target. If March resumes this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.20 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.20 3/4. Second support is the December 28th crossing at $6.07.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.04 1/4-cents at $6.36 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.17 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.17 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.84 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.05 1/4-cents at $6.32 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March renews the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $6.18 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.18 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.85.
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March soybeans closed up $0.03 1/2-cents at $13.73 3/4.
March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.77 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.57 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 25% retracement level of the April-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.57 3/4.
March soybean meal closed up $0.1 to $436.60.
March soybean meal closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $443.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $411.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $411.80. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.
March soybean oil closed up 61 pts. at 43.52.
March soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 40.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 45.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 41.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 40.13.
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April hogs closed down $0.65 at $76.30.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 77.60. Second resistance is the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.18.
April cattle closed down $0.48 at $122.63
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If April extends this month's rally, the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $123.70. Second resistance is the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.88.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.40 at $140.08.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the August-2020 high crossing at $145.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $144.85. Second resistance is the August-2020 high crossing at $145.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $139.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.16.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 13.57 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above the January 4th high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target.