INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 28, 2021, 3:44 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, January 29, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. December Personal Income & Outlays



                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -1.1%)



                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected -0.3%; previous -0.4%)



                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.1%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.4%)



8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index



                       ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.5%)



                       ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.4%)



9:45 AM ET. January Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI



                       PMI-Adj (expected 58.7; previous 59.5)



10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 79.2; previous 80.7)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx Chicago PMI (previous 74.6)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 90.0)



10:00 AM ET. SEC Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee



                    Meeting (virtual)



10:00 AM ET. December Pending Home Sales Index



                       Pending Home Sales (previous 125.7)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -2.6%)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +16.4%)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed sharply higher on Thursday as investors focused on earnings reports and economic data following steep losses for major indexes on high trading volumes on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,323.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow resumes this month's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 31,272.22. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,323.04. Second support is January's low crossing at 29,881.82. 

 

The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,665.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,559.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,665.22. Second support is the December 12th low crossing at 12,217.00.   



The March S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3705.08 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3859.23. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3707.08. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 26/32's at 169-19.

  

March T-bonds posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 171-31 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 170-29. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 171-31. First support is January's low crossing at 167-11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04. 



March T-notes closed down 90 pts. at 137.080.



March T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading.  Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.185 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.028 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.185. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 138.055. First support is January's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $53.94. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.73. Second support is  the 50-day moving average crossing at $48.31.  



March heating oil closed slightly lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $156.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $162.46. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of  the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at  $156.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $147.32. 



March unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $151.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $160.67. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average  crossing at $138.48.    



March Henry natural gas closed steady to slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Wednesday's closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.630 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 2.268 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 2.835. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 2.910. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.425. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.268.  



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday while extending this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the January 18th high crossing at 90.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off last-Friday's high, January's low crossing at 89.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 90.94. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 91.96. First support is January's low crossing at 89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15. 



The March Euro posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 120.68 would open the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 119.63. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 120.68. Second support is December's low crossing at 119.63. 



The March British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3497 would confirm that a short-term top has been opened for additional weakness and a possible test of the December 21st low crossing at 1.3200. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3762. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3497. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at 1.3200.

 

The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Thursday while extending this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1243 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1243. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036. 



The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 79.44. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.02. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at 75.96.



The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 0.0956 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0968 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0958. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at $1771.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1875.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1978.20. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1804.70. Second support is November's low crossing at $1771.30.



March silver closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.013 confirming that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 24.040 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 28.105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 29.380. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 24.040. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 23.695. 



March copper closed higher on Thursday while extending the December-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day low crossing at 352.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25  is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 8th high crossing at 373.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 352.44. Second support is December's low crossing at 343.90.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed up $0.00 1/2-cents at $5.34 1/2. 



March corn closed fractionally higher on Thursday but well off session highs due to profit taking. Early strength was triggered by today's bullish export sales report a midst tightening U.S. supplies. Today's export sales report came in above pre-report expectations at 72.69 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $4.92 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $5.50 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First support is Monday's low crossing at $4.92 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.62 3/4.    



March wheat closed down $0.11 1/4-cents at $6.6.47.  



March wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4 is the next upside target. If March resumes this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.21 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high  crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.21 3/4. Second support is the December 28th crossing at $6.07.        



March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.10 3/4-cents at $6.26 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.19 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.19 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.85 1/2.      



March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.13 1/4-cents at $6.19 1/2. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March renews the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $6.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.58. First support is Monday's low crossing at $6.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.86.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed down $0.21 1/2-cents at $13.53 1/4.



March soybeans closed lower on Thursday following a three-day rally off Monday's low. Soybean export sales showed a disappointing 17.1 million bushels in old crop sales last week, which was 45% below the prior four-week average. However, new crop sales came in at 57.5 million bushels, for a total tally of 74.6 million bushels beating all trade guesses that ranged from 38.6 million and 71.7 million bushels. Year-to-date totals for the 2020/21 marketing year are well above last year’s pace, with 1.674 billion bushels. Never-the-less, today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.71 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.61 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 25% retracement level of the April-January rally crossing at  $12.83 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.61 3/4.



March soybean meal closed down $9.70 to $426.90. 



March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $440.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $412.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $412.60. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.       



March soybean oil closed up 13 pts. at 44.65. 



March soybean oil closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 40.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 45.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 41.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 40.29.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $0.08 at $76.48. 



April hogs closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 77.60. Second resistance is the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.35. 



April cattle closed up $0.08 at $122.70 



April cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If April extends this month's rally, the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $123.70. Second resistance is the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.02. 



March Feeder cattle closed down $0.28 at $139.80. 


March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.10 would confirm that a  short-term top has been posted. If March renews this month's rally, the August-2020 high crossing at $145.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $144.85. Second resistance is the August-2020 high crossing at $145.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $139.11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.10.         



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 13.57 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.      



March cocoa closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above the January 4th high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                           



March sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.21 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. 



March cotton closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.58 cents signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 78.65 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target.    

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By metmike - Jan. 28, 2021, 4:23 p.m.
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