USDA report out at 11am CDT today.
USDA acreage and stocks report
USDA 6/29 Estimate USDA 3/30
Corn acres 89.128 88.372 88.026
Bean acres 89.557 89.789 88.982
all Wheat 47.821 47.122 47.339
Winter wheat 32.732 32.718 32.708
Spring wheat 13.202 12.413 12.627
Durum wheat 1.887 2.017 2.004
Bearish corn but corn finished +5c.
MetMike
Corn is much more advanced in growth this year in many areas, thus tasseling and ear fill 'issues' will be sooner.
Although maps may not yet be reliable, do you foresee any weather issues, say in western/southern Ill and Ind or elsewhere, that will develop a 'weather scare' over the next few weeks?
I realize it is wet----but if it stays dry, fill issues
Am on a boat all day but it HEAT not dry that will cause fill issues...HEAT FILL
Dry and cooler is still somewhat bearish
Yeeeeeeeee --- Haaaaahhhhhh...........
.......wear lots of sunscreen on that boat Mike.... it is hotter than a 2 - peckered billy goat here in S.E. IOWA
Thanks,
We need the most intense heat to be in the Midsection to maximize the bullishness in corn.
We need MUCH above temps to be widespread across the Cornbelt from mid-July thru August. This will cause yields to plunge 20+ bpa from heat fill.
Even if the ratings stay high and corn has plenty of moisture in the soils.............and looks nice and green on the outside, kernel heat fill will be happening unseen by the human eye and weekly crop reports.
Come harvest, which would be very early(IF we have long lasting widespread heat) because corn will mature faster than usual from the heat accelerating corn's maturity and accumulating massive growing degree days fast.
Again, this is only with intense long lasting and widespread heat.
Is the market completely oblivious to this?
It's June 29th. Mid July thru August weather is not known right now. Am not forecasting the weather for that period.............just telling you what will happen to yields if it ends up hot for much of that period...........and the market will start reacting BEFORE the widespread heat gets here.
If, instead we have cool, even cool and dry it will be mostly bearish.
Week 3 and 4 forecast from NWS. Mostly normal temps in the Cornbelt(hot south to S.Plains). A lot of corn will be pollinating.
Dry in the southcentral US to Southern Cornbelt.
Normal temps in July are bearish, even with slightly dry weather, since soil moisture is abundant.
However, the slightest shift northeastward of the heat ridge and it turns BULLISH.
Temperature Probability | Precipitation Probability (Experimental)  |
http://www.farmfutures.com/market-news/grain-market-week-review-june-29-2018
Market outlooks
Basis Outlook — Basis firmed again last week as futures plunged to new lows. But gains were modest in the cash market due to rising transportation costs, burdensome supplies and the beginning of deliveries against July futures at the end of the week.