INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 4, 2021, 7:29 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, February 4, 2021   

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. January Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +19%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1850.3K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2030.4K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 596.5K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 847K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -67K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 4771000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -203K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (previous +4.9%)

 



 

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (previous -8.9%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous +1.0%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.0%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +1.0%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2881B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -128B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. January Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

Friday, February 5, 2021   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous -140K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (previous 6.7%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.81)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.23)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.78%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +5.08%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous -45K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous -95K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 61.5%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -68.14B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 184.2B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous +1.2%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 252.3B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. December Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +15.3B)

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was modestly higher overnight.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. March is poised to renew this winter's rally into uncharted territory. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,795.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early-February. First resistance is January's high crossing at 13,599.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,795.63. Second support is January's low crossing at 12,491.25.



The March S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above January's high crossing at 3859.75 would renew the long-term rally into uncharted territory. Closes below the 50-day moving  average crossing at 3721.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 3636.00. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3859.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3721.18. Second support is December's low crossing at 3636.00. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below January's low crossing at 167-11 would renew this winter's decline and open the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 169-04 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 169-04. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 171-12. First support is January's low crossing at 167-11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04.



March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, January's low crossing at 136.010 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.156 would open the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 138.055. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.156. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 138.055. First support is January's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134.298. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 22nd low crossing at $51.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $55.82. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.46. First support is the January 22nd low crossing at $51.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $49.46.    



May heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off November's low, the February 20th 2020 high crossing at $173.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 22nd low crossing at $155.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.44. Second resistance is the February 20th 2020 high crossing at $173.61. First support is the January 22nd low crossing at $155.65. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $151.06.



May unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $188.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $166.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $175.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $188.87. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $166.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $154.90. 



May Henry natural gas was higher overnight following a two-day sell off from Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 3.011 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 2.740 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.937. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.011. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.615. Second support is the January 22nd low crossing at 2.527.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the November 30th reaction high crossing at $91.96 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $91.96. Second resistance is the November 23rd high crossing at $92.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.53. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at $89.16.



The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.59. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $123.68. First support is the overnight low crossing at $119.92. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33.

 

The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3535 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3762. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3535. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at 1.3200.  



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the head-and-shoulders top project a potential decline to 1.1013. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1251 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 1.1331. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. First support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036. Second support is the downside target of the head-and-shoulders top crossing at 1.1013.  



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December 21st low crossing at $77.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $79.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $77.63. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at $77.21.  



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 0.0948 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0963 are  needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 0.0968. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0975. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0950. Second support is the November's low crossing at 0.0948.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it extends January's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at $1771.30 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $1878.90 would confirm an upside breakout of January's trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $1878.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. First support is January's low crossing at $1804.70. Second support is November's low crossing at $1771.30.  



March silver was lower overnight and is poised to extend Tuesday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.481 would confirm that a top has been posted. Closes above the July 7th high crossing at $30.365 would open the door into uncharted territory. First resistance is the July 7th high crossing at $30.365. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $30.727. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.057. Second support is the January 27th low crossing at $24.715. 



March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the December-February trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below December's low crossing at 3.4390 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 8th high crossing at 3.7340. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.4910. Second support is December's low crossing at 3.4390.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight and has renewed this winter's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.25 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $5.58. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.92 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75.     



March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's gains. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.26 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off last-Monday's low, January's high crossing at $6.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.26 1/2. Second support is the  December 28th low crossing at $6.07. 

 

March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $6.04 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off Monday's low, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is theDecember-2014 high crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $6.04 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.92.



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are posed to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $6.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at crossing at $6.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $5.93 1/4.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



March soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight as it continues to struggle for near-term direction. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 25% retracement level of the April-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $13.94 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a test of January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $13.94 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $12.98. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2.



March soybean meal was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $440.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at $416.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $440.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $416.90. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.       



March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 45.58. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is January's low crossing at 41.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 40.99.      


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $1.13 at $79.20. 



April hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.95. Second resistance is the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $72.11. 



April cattle closed down $0.08 at $122.45 



April cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off October's low, the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $123.90. Second resistance is the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.50. 



March Feeder cattle closed down $0.60 at $138.53. 


March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $132.68 is the next downside target. If March renews this month's rally, the August-2020 high crossing at $145.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $144.85. Second resistance is the August-2020 high crossing at $145.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at $136.80. Second support is January's low crossing at $132.68.         



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 12.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 13.57 is the next upside target.      



March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the January 4th high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95.                            



March sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.26 is the next downside target. 



March cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 78.65 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target.    

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