KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 5, 2021
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous -140K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 6.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.81)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.23)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.78%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +5.08%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous -45K)
Private Payroll (previous -95K)
Participation Rate (previous 61.5%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -68.14B)
Exports (USD) (previous 184.2B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Imports (USD) (previous 252.3B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +2.9%)
3:00 PM ET. December Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +15.3B)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher for the fourth day in a row on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30,839.71 would signals that a short-term low has been posted and opens the door for a retest of January's high crossing at 31,272.22. If the Dow renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 29,599.29 is the next downside target.First resistance is today's high crossing at 31,024.93. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 31,272.22. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 29,856.30. Second support is November's low crossing at 29,599.29.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday and is poised to extend the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,796.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 13,599.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,796.57. Second support is the December 12th low crossing at 12,217.00.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3721.18 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3859.23. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3721.18. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed down 10/32's at 167-17.
March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-week's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 169-04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 169-04. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 170-29. Third resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 171-11. First support is today's low crossing at 167-02. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes closed unchanged at 136.255.
March T-notes closed unchanged on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. If March extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, January's low crossing at 136.010 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.156 would renew the rally off January's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.156. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 138.055. First support is January's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 22nd low crossing at $51.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $56.41. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.48. First support is the January 22nd low crossing at $51.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $49.53.
April heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the March-2020 high crossing at $163.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $160.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.05. Second resistance is the March-2020 high crossing at $163.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $160.60. Second support is the January 22nd low crossing at $155.62. Third support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $151.01.
April unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $188.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $166.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $175.53. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $188.13. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 166.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.98.
April Henry natural gas posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 3.320 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 2.716 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 13th high crossing at 3.062. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 3.320. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.554. Second support is the January 22nd low crossing at 2.425.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the November 30th high crossing at 91.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is the today's high crossing at 91.59. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 91.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.52. Second support is the January 21st low crossing 90.03. Third support is January's low crossing at 89.16.
The March Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the November 23rd low crossing at 118.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 122.03. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.68. First support is today's low crossing at 119.66. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at 118.33.
The March British Pound posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3537 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the December 21st low crossing at 1.3200. If March renews the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3762. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3537. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at 1.3200.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1250 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1250. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. First support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0913.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December 21st low crossing at 77.21 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.51. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 79.44. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 77.21. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at 75.96.
The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 0.0945 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0963 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0958. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0961. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0948. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0945.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed sharply lower on breaking out to the downside of January's trading range.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at $1771.30 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $1878.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $1878.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. First support is November's low crossing at $1771.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1724.50.
March silver closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off Monday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.480 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 30.350. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.480. Second support is January's low crossing at 24.040.
March copper closed lower on Thursday while extending the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below December's low crossing at 343.90 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range has been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 360.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 8th high crossing at 373.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 349.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 343.90.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down $0.02-cents at $5.50.
March corn closed lower on Thursday despite today's bullish export sales report. Corn exports posted a marketing-year high but also posted the largest weekly sales total on record. Corn export sales came in at a whopping 292.8 million bushels in old crop sales last week due to aggressive Chinese buying that totaled 230.7 million bushels. New crop sales chipped in another 3.3 million bushels headed for Japan for a total tally of 296.1 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2020/21 marketing year are now at 788 million bushels, easily exceeding last year’s pace of 437.3 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. I would not be surprised to see some consolidation over the next few days as traders await February's updated supply-demand report for additional fodder for bulls to chew on before moving higher. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.25 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $5.58. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.25 1/2. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.92 1/2.
March wheat closed down $0.10 3/4-cents at $6.37 1/2.
March wheat closed lower on Thursday as export shipments came in 2% lower week-over-week but still above the prior four-week average, with 18.3 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.26 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.26 1/4. Second support is the December 28th crossing at $6.07.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.06 3/4-cents at $6.18 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.92 is the next downside target. If March resumes this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target.First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $6.04 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.92.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.03 1/4-cents at $6.21 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $6.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.92. If March renews the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.58. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $6.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.92.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed up $0.01 1/4-cents at $13.72 1/2.
March soybeans closed higher on Thursday. Soybean export sales were sharply higher over the previous week with 30.3 million bushels in old crop sales and 23.3 million bushels in new crop sales bringing the total of 53.6 million bushels for the week. Cumulative totals for the 2020/21 marketing year have almost doubled last year’s pace with 1.746 billion bushels. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.81 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 25% retracement level of the April-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.81 1/4.
March soybean meal closed down $2.40 to $433.10.
March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $440.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's, the 50-day moving average crossing at $416.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $416.80. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.
March soybean oil closed down 46 pts. at 44.94.
March soybean oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 40.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 45.58. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 40.99.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.10 at $79.30.
April hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.08. Second resistance is the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $72.33.
April cattle closed up $1.30 at $123.75
April cattle closed higher on Thursday as it test the upper boundary of a two-week old trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If April extends the rally off October's low, the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $123.90. Second resistance is the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.68.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.85 at $142.67.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews this month's rally, the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40 is the next upside target. If April extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $135.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 12.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 13.57 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the December-February trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above the January 4th high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.28 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed sharply higher on Thursday as it renewed the rally off last-April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 79.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.