INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 5, 2021, 7:16 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, February 5, 2021   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous -140K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (previous 6.7%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.81)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.23)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.78%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +5.08%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous -45K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous -95K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 61.5%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -68.14B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 184.2B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous +1.2%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 252.3B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. December Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +15.3B)

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was modestly higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,831.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at 13,599.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,201.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,831.55.  



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This week's breakout into uncharted territory makes upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3727.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 3636.00. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3886.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3802.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3727.56. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off the January 28th high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below January's low crossing at 167-11 would open the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 168-29 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 168-29. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 171-06. First support is the overnight low crossing at 167-02. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04.



March T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, January's low crossing at 136.010 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.148 would open the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 138.055. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.148. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 138.055. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 136.190. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134.298. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $53.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $56.93. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $53.31. Second support is the January 22nd low crossing at $51.38.    



April heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the February 20th 2020 high crossing at $174.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $172.18. Second resistance is the February 20th 2020 high crossing at $174.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $151.80.



April unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the January-2020 high crossing at $180.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $167.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $176.92. Second resistance is the January-2020 high crossing at $180.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $167.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $154.83. 



April Henry natural gas was higher overnight  as it renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 3.011 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 2.740 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.976. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.011. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.615. Second support is the January 22nd low crossing at 2.527.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the November 30th reaction high crossing at $91.96 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $91.96. Second resistance is the November 23rd high crossing at $92.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.61. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at $89.16.



The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.60. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $123.68. First support is the overnight low crossing at $119.60. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33.

 

The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3544 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3762. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3544. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at 1.3200.  



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the head-and-shoulders top project a potential decline to 1.1013. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1238 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 1.1331. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. First support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036. Second support is the downside target of the head-and-shoulders top crossing at 1.1013.  



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December 21st low crossing at $77.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.47 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $79.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $77.63. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at $77.21.  



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 0.0945 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0963 are  needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 0.0968. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0975. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0946. Second support is last-October's low crossing at 0.0945.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at $1771.30 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $1878.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $1878.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $1784.60. Second support is November's low crossing at $1771.30.  



March silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.538 would confirm that a top has been posted. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $30.350 would open the door into uncharted territory. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $30.350. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $30.727. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.026. Second support is the January 27th low crossing at $24.715. 



March copper was steady to higher overnight while extending the December-February trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. Closes below December's low crossing at 3.4390 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range has been posted. First resistance is the January 8th high crossing at 3.7340. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.4910. Second support is December's low crossing at 3.4390.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally lower. Despite this week's record setting export sales report it appears as though the market might be staling out for the time being as it awaits next week's monthly supply-demand report for additional news that would push prices higher. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.28 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $5.58. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/4. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.92 1/2.      



March wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off last-Monday's low, January's high crossing at $6.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.27. Second support is the December 28th low crossing at $6.07. 

 

March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $6.04 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off Monday's low, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $6.04 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.93.



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $6.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at crossing at $6.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $5.93 1/4.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



March soybeans were steady to higher overnight as it continues to trade sideways ahead of next week's monthly supply-demand report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 25% retracement level of the April-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $13.94 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a test of January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $13.94 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $12.98. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2.



March soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $440.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at $417.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $440.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $417.60. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.       



March soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 45.58. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 41.13.      


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $0.10 at $79.30. 



April hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.08. Second resistance is the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $72.33. 



April cattle closed up $1.30 at $123.75 



April cattle closed higher on Thursday as it test the upper boundary of a two-week old trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If April extends the rally off October's low, the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $123.90. Second resistance is the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.68. 



April Feeder cattle closed up $0.85 at $142.67. 


April Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews this month's rally, the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40 is the next upside target. If April extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $135.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.         



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 12.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 13.57 is the next upside target.      



March cocoa closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the December-February trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above the January 4th high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                            



March sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.28 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target.   



March cotton closed sharply higher on Thursday as it renewed the rally off last-April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 79.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.     

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