February 14, weather
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Started by metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:07 p.m.

Happy Valentines Day! 

Roses are Red, Violets are Blue..............here is your Wild Winter Weather Review!

Coldest blast in  years for some places. 2 main snow/ice events this week.

Edit: Coldest in decades for TX with snow/ice!

Moderation expected late February ........containing the natural gas bulls.

Reasons to continue to keep being thankful here in 2021!


COVID peaked over a month ago!


Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.

Most maps below will automatically update each day(not the snow map).

the maps below do not show the areas of ice that WILL fall, just south of the heavier snow!

Total Snow for this week from the 12z Sunday GFS Ensemble model.

Weather Model

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"      

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  





 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble



Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning





Highs today and tomorrow.

By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:11 p.m.
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Lows days 3-7 below:

HUGE moderation back to average!





By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:13 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Warming to average will feel like....Spring compared to recent cold!







By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:16 p.m.
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Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7

The blues in the map are mainly from early in the period.............with yellows showing up for this period in the NorthCentral region by the end of this week.




By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:19 p.m.
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Surface Weather features days 0-1-2 then days 3-7:

2 huge Winter storms this week. Extreme Arctic cold entrenched deep into the South. 


Days 0-1-2 below:

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Sun 18Z

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Mon 12Z

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure valid Tue 12Z

Days 3-7 below:

By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:22 p.m.
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Total Snow for the next week  from the 12z Monday GFS Ensemble model.

the map below does not show the areas of ice that WILL fall, just south of the heavier snow!

Weather Model

By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:33 p.m.
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By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:34 p.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Northern part of this will be snow and ice!

But also all the way down to S. TX!!

Day 1 below



Day 2 below:



Day 3 below



Days 4-5 below:



 Days 6-7 below:



7 Day Total precipitation below:




By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:40 p.m.
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Current Dew Points

Dry air in place. Gulf of Mexico closed for water vapor transport business to the north.

Current Dew Points



    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"



                                         national/regional radar





Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).



Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:42 p.m.
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Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.


Drought Monitor for conus



Drought Monitor for conus


By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:59 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2.................  Canadian ensembles:

Sunday: The mean/average is not the majority as extremes/opposites in different solutions cancel each other out. This means uncertainty. There is however, good support for ridging in the South/Southeast from the southern stream. The northern stream influence is the wild card.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Mar 01, 2021 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 2:07 p.m.
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Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 12z run at 336 hours:


Sunday: Strong support for ridging and warmth in the Southeast(southern stream) and troughing upstream and farther north, in Western North America, mainly associated with the northern stream. Will the northern stream troughing be in phase with the southern stream, staying farther west and warm the east or will it be more progressive and push cold that is initially targeting the West, farther east?



By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 2:13 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

Sunday: A complete change from the recent extreme anomaly and Polar Vortex being extremely far south, down the the US border. 

At  the end of week 1, the negative anomaly has shifted to northern N.America with an extension southwest across W.North America with a positive anomaly across the Southern US. This is the recipe for mild, zonal flow and rapid warming.

At the end of week 2, the neg anomaly is in the Pac NW and the positive anomaly in in the Southeast. This usually means warm temps for the eastern 2/3rds of the US and possibly turning wetter. Cold would be in the Northwest.



2 weeks out below

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product




By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 2:17 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks


Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Sunday: The recent, incredibly low, historic -----AO(causing the extreme cold) will spike quickly to slightly positive and hang out near 0. The NAO will drift into positive territory. The PNA will drop slightly to negative.  This all points to a big warm up.

By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 2:18 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability



By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 2:18 p.m.
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The week 3 and week 4 CFS model  from the previous day



By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 2:20 p.m.
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                By metmike - Feb. 12, 2021, 2:53 p.m.                        


ECMWF 12z model update & its ensemble distribution still has Oklahoma City forecast to tie its all-time record cold temperature of -17°F set back on February 12, 1899.   Model forecast dependent upon lack of cloud cover, calm winds, and fresh snow cover.  ECMWF 12z 02/12/2021 (@weathermodels_)Image

1:45 PM · Feb 12, 2021·Twitter Web App


By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 2:22 p.m.
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How Extreme is this? Never has this 4 state area been targeted in winter storm warnings to this extent, not even close



            Eric Snodgrass@snodgrss

Forecast high temps for Valentine's Day (departure from normal shaded) broke my color bar. Parts of the Central US more than 40-degrees F colder than average for Feb 14.



            NWS Des Moines@NWSDesMoines

Roses are red Violets are blue The wind chill at Estherville is -42






Here is the area where I believe the upcoming 5 days will be the most extreme winter weather wise of anyone that has lived in these areas all their life. Total snow and ice, magnitude of cold. economic and humanitarian hardship all considered






Look at this morning’s observations out of Albuquerque— yikes. Single-digit temps, peak gusts to 61 mph and heavy snow for the past 4-5 hours.  About as bad as it gets there... Image




Doc V@MJVentrice


You just don't see temperatures forecast this cold in this part of the world. The Deep South is embracing for extreme cold weather related major power disruptions.








Just can't seem to... Let It Go... Temperatures will remain Frozen for some time. Eventually once we break above freezing, it will feel like For the First Time in Forever. But until then, please take care to stay warm! The cold actually does bother us anyway...




Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

Incredible Icon, though likely too cold, is a wonder to look at. Low temps Mon AM, High Mon Pm Low Tue am




NWS Lake Charles@NWSLakeCharles


A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for the area tonight through Monday. Ice accumulations of 0.1 to 0.5 inches are possible by late Monday. Snow amounts up to 4 inches are also possible, mainly across central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas. PREPARE NOW for this event!





           Steve Milloy@JunkScience


#BidenClimatePlanUpdate When the wind slows later today, electricity demand in Texas may exceed generation. Possibly getting rid of coal plants wasn't such a good idea.









good morning to everyone except florida






By metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 2:47 p.m.
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                Evansville IN weather +more           

                            14 responses |                

                Started by metmike - Feb. 8, 2021, 6 p.m.