Happy Valentines Day!
Roses are Red, Violets are Blue..............here is your Wild Winter Weather Review!
Coldest blast in years for some places. 2 main snow/ice events this week.
Edit: Coldest in decades for TX with snow/ice!
Moderation expected late February ........containing the natural gas bulls.
Reasons to continue to keep being thankful here in 2021!
COVID peaked over a month ago!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Most maps below will automatically update each day(not the snow map).
the maps below do not show the areas of ice that WILL fall, just south of the heavier snow!
Total Snow for this week from the 12z Sunday GFS Ensemble model.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Current Weather Map
|NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop||NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion||NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion|
Current Jet Stream
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
Highs today and tomorrow.
Lows days 3-7 below:
HUGE moderation back to average!
Highs for days 3-7:
Warming to average will feel like....Spring compared to recent cold!
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
The blues in the map are mainly from early in the period.............with yellows showing up for this period in the NorthCentral region by the end of this week.
Surface Weather features days 0-1-2 then days 3-7:
2 huge Winter storms this week. Extreme Arctic cold entrenched deep into the South.
Days 0-1-2 below:
Days 3-7 below:
Total Snow for the next week from the 12z Monday GFS Ensemble model.
the map below does not show the areas of ice that WILL fall, just south of the heavier snow!
winter weather specialists nws:
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Northern part of this will be snow and ice!
But also all the way down to S. TX!!
Day 1 below
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Current Dew Points
Dry air in place. Gulf of Mexico closed for water vapor transport business to the north.
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2................. Canadian ensembles:
Sunday: The mean/average is not the majority as extremes/opposites in different solutions cancel each other out. This means uncertainty. There is however, good support for ridging in the South/Southeast from the southern stream. The northern stream influence is the wild card.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Mar 01, 2021 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 12z run at 336 hours:
Sunday: Strong support for ridging and warmth in the Southeast(southern stream) and troughing upstream and farther north, in Western North America, mainly associated with the northern stream. Will the northern stream troughing be in phase with the southern stream, staying farther west and warm the east or will it be more progressive and push cold that is initially targeting the West, farther east?
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
Sunday: A complete change from the recent extreme anomaly and Polar Vortex being extremely far south, down the the US border.
At the end of week 1, the negative anomaly has shifted to northern N.America with an extension southwest across W.North America with a positive anomaly across the Southern US. This is the recipe for mild, zonal flow and rapid warming.
At the end of week 2, the neg anomaly is in the Pac NW and the positive anomaly in in the Southeast. This usually means warm temps for the eastern 2/3rds of the US and possibly turning wetter. Cold would be in the Northwest.
2 weeks out below
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Sunday: The recent, incredibly low, historic -----AO(causing the extreme cold) will spike quickly to slightly positive and hang out near 0. The NAO will drift into positive territory. The PNA will drop slightly to negative. This all points to a big warm up.
The week 3 and week 4 CFS model from the previous day
By metmike - Feb. 12, 2021, 2:53 p.m.
ECMWF 12z model update & its ensemble distribution still has Oklahoma City forecast to tie its all-time record cold temperature of -17°F set back on February 12, 1899. Model forecast dependent upon lack of cloud cover, calm winds, and fresh snow cover.
How Extreme is this? Never has this 4 state area been targeted in winter storm warnings to this extent, not even close
Forecast high temps for Valentine's Day (departure from normal shaded) broke my color bar. Parts of the Central US more than 40-degrees F colder than average for Feb 14.
Roses are red Violets are blue The wind chill at Estherville is -42
Here is the area where I believe the upcoming 5 days will be the most extreme winter weather wise of anyone that has lived in these areas all their life. Total snow and ice, magnitude of cold. economic and humanitarian hardship all considered
You just don't see temperatures forecast this cold in this part of the world. The Deep South is embracing for extreme cold weather related major power disruptions.
Just can't seem to... Let It Go... Temperatures will remain Frozen for some time. Eventually once we break above freezing, it will feel like For the First Time in Forever. But until then, please take care to stay warm! The cold actually does bother us anyway...
Incredible Icon, though likely too cold, is a wonder to look at. Low temps Mon AM, High Mon Pm Low Tue am
A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for the area tonight through Monday. Ice accumulations of 0.1 to 0.5 inches are possible by late Monday. Snow amounts up to 4 inches are also possible, mainly across central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas. PREPARE NOW for this event!
#BidenClimatePlanUpdate When the wind slows later today, electricity demand in Texas may exceed generation. Possibly getting rid of coal plants wasn't such a good idea.
good morning to everyone except florida