Global warming causes everything
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Started by metmike - Feb. 16, 2021, 1:06 a.m.

How global warming can cause Europe's harsh winter weather

"Climate deniers are using a spell of unusually cold weather in Europe to incorrectly argue that CO2 emissions are not warming the planet."

https://www.dw.com/en/cold-winter-global-warming-polar-vortex/a-56534450


"This is where the disproportionate warming of the Arctic comes into play, said Stefan Rahmstorf, head of the Earth System Analysis research department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Temperatures in the Arctic have risen more than twice as fast as the global average over the past 40 years."

Why global warming can lead to snow


metmike:

1. Climate deniers telling people this cold means there is no global warming? I don't know anybody credible that's saying that. However, sources like this one, constantly tell us that everything is caused by global warming...even extreme cold and snow. It's like.........before global warming, those thousands of years with major cold outbreaks and huge Winter storms from natural climate never existed. All extreme weather is now from human caused climate change and none of it would be happening if humans had not increased the global temperature by 1 deg. C. If not for burning fossil fuels, the weather would be almost perfect most of the time (-:

2. Yes, the Arctic has warmed twice as fast as the rest of the planet as they state.   Hello! This means that you are equalizing the temperatures (from north to south) across the planet and weakening the temperature gradient. Weakening cold fronts, weakening jet streams.  Reducing energy for mid latitude cyclones/storms. Reducing snow.  Reducing violent tornadoes.  Lessening the need for hurricanes to redistribute heat in the tropics. Creating milder Winters. Warming the coldest places at the coldest times of year the most. Cold still kills 15 times more humans than heat and 200 times more life than heat. This is part of the reason that we are having a climate optimum NOT a climate crisis.


3. Every time the polar vortex has an intrusion very far south now............. according to the climate crisis theory, it's from Arctic warming and climate change. Larry had a good stat on this last week. 5 of the 8 Winters that the Arctic Oscillation dropped to the extremely low values that we just had...............were during 2 decades.......the 1960's and 1970's.......when the planet was experiencing GLOBAL COOLING! Only 2 of the 8 were in recent years, this time makes 3.  So, based on this measure,  the polar vortex is NOT more likely to drop extremely far south.............during global warming. We are told that but the historical data shows that statement is false. But like every extreme weather event, most of which has happened many times previously/in the past, it gets used to promote the false narratives of a climate crisis.  

Blows that theory apart pretty badly.

                AO heading for sub -5 on Feb 11th!            

                            7 responses |            

                Started by WxFollower - Feb. 9, 2021, 9:37 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/65465/

- Only 8 winters out of the last 70 have had at least a single day of sub -5 AO:

 2010-1 (12/18)

 2009-10 (12/20-5, 1/2-6, 2/6-7, 2/14)

 1984-5 (1/18-20)

 1977-8 (2/5-6)

 1976-7 (12/28-9, 1/11-17)

 1968-9 (2/13-6)

 1965-6 (1/28)

 1962-3 (1/21)


metmike: The planet experienced the greatest rate of warming during the 1990's. This REDUCED cold outbreaks, especially the intensity of cold coming from the most extreme Arctic cold.

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 22, 2021, 2:24 p.m.
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Time to have some fun busting the junk science:


This is what much of the MSM has been feeding us the last 2 weeks: There was an image of a tv weatherman with a map of the polar vortex, blaming it on global warming below....that’s gone.



Some meteorology 101 for the dude in the picture.

What do you think happens when a natural weather event(Sudden Stratospheric Warming) unrelated to climate change, forces the Polar Vortex to shift very far south, along with the cold air that took months to build in the high latitudes because there was little to no sunshine up there? 

All that cold air naturally drains southward to the mid latitudes(USA) and the cold in the north is replaced with air that comes from the mid latitudes, to fill in the air draining south. 

This warms up the Arctic/high latitudes as much as it cools down the mid latitudes.

This has been happening for a long time...............before global warming could have ever caused it.

Those are just words, like this guy is using above. Let's show the proof!

By metmike - Feb. 22, 2021, 2:48 p.m.
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Scroll down for later posts!


One of the best tools that we have to measure the intensity of the displacement of the polar vortex is the Arctic Oscillation. We started measuring it in 1950.


Here's a good explanation for the Arctic Oscillation:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t


We  were discussing it earlier in February here:



5 out of the 8 last times it was this extremely negative was in the 1960's and 1970's............during global cooling.

From WxFollower:

 AO heading for sub -5 on Feb 11th!            

                            7 responses |            

                Started by WxFollower - Feb. 9, 2021, 9:37 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/65465/


Only 8 winters out of the last 70 have had at least a single day of sub -5 AO like we witnessed earlier this month:

 2010-1 (12/18)

 2009-10 (12/20-5, 1/2-6, 2/6-7, 2/14)

 1984-5 (1/18-20)

 1977-8 (2/5-6)

 1976-7 (12/28-9, 1/11-17)

 1968-9 (2/13-6)

 1965-6 (1/28)

 1962-3 (1/21)


The red shades below represent positive AO values. The blue shades represent negative AO values. Think of those blue areas as icicles. The really big ones are often associated with our coldest weather......when cold air in the higher latitudes is flushed south to the middle latitudes.

Note clearly, that the 1950's/60's and 70's featured much more blue icicles......during global cooling. Starting in the 1980's, the reds became dominant in tandem  with global warming that has dominated since then. The recent extremely negative Arctic Oscillation that featured the polar vortex in the US is a global cooling pattern. It came in February, after the deadline on this map.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml


By metmike - Feb. 22, 2021, 2:55 p.m.
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There are numerous examples of a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation happening in the 1950's/60's/70's. Many more times than the last 30 years.
One of the most extreme examples is below, illustrated with the 500 mb map from January 1977. 

 That Arctic outbreak then was colder than the recent one because the air in the Arctic was MUCH colder in 1977.  Freezes were reported all the way to Southern Florida, where they had accumulating snow for the only time in history. The orange crop was obliterated and many trees killed. The brunt of that cold was also aimed slightly farther east of this recent one.

2 billion dollars in today's damages resulted from that cold, just in the state of Florida.

This recent cold event resulted in Dallas dropping to -2 deg. F.  That is pretty dang extreme but it's been below 0 in Dallas, 4 other times in history, the most recent was 1989. The all time record cold temperature for Dallas is -8 deg. F, set way back in 1899.......before global warming started.

This pattern below from January  1977 was very similar to February 2021. Except the Arctic was COLDER then and aimed slightly farther east, so the Arctic air mass that came in was COLDER in January 1977.

https://vortex.plymouth.edu/wxp/cgi-bin/upa/gen-reanal.cgi?pd=namer&le=500&va=hght&ci=60&pl=lcf&yy=1977&mm=01&dd=15&hh=00&pg=web&overlay=no&le=&va=&ci=&pl=ln&yy=&mm=&dd=&hh=

By metmike - Feb. 22, 2021, 3:04 p.m.
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Here's some damage control from the NYT's this morning, claiming that TX was not ready for climate change and thats why they were hit so hard.

It's the POLAR opposite. TX was hit so hard BECAUSE they were preparing for climate change.



Author HeadshotBy David Leonhardt
Good morning. We look at Texas’ big economic strengths — and a threat to its future.



Oil drilling rigs in West Odessa, Texas, last month.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Texas can be the future’

You can make a case that the U.S. state with the brightest long-term economic future is Texas.
It’s a more affordable place to live than much of the Northeast or West Coast and still has powerful ways to draw new residents, including a thriving cultural scene, a diverse population and top research universities. Its elementary schools and middle schools perform well above average in reading and math (and notably ahead of California’s), according to the Urban Institute.
These strengths have helped the population of Texas to surge by more than 15 percent, or about four million people, over the past decade. In the past few months, two high-profile technology companies — Oracleand Hewlett-Packard Enterprise — have announced they are moving their headquarters to the state, and Teslamay soon follow. As California was in the 20th century, Texas today looks like a state that can embody and shape the country’s future.
But Texas also has a big problem, as the world has just witnessed. A useful way to think of it is the fossil fuel problem.

‘This’ll happen again’

Even with its growing tech and health care industries, the Texas economy revolves around oil and gas. And those fossil fuels have created two threats to the state’s economic future.
The first is climate change, which is making Texas a less pleasant place to live. The number of 95-degree days has spiked, and severe hurricanes have become more common, including Harvey, which brutalized Houston and the Gulf Coast in 2017. Paradoxically, climate change may also be weakening the jet stream, making bouts of frigid weather more common.
On the national level, Texas politicians have playeda central rolein preventing action to slow climate change. On the local level, leaders have failed to prepare for the new era of extreme weather — including leaving the electricity grid vulnerable to last week’s cold spell, which in turn left millions of Texans without power and water.
Many residents feel abandoned. In Copperas Cove, a city in central Texas, Daniel Peterson told my colleague Jack Healy on Saturday that he was utterly exasperated with the officials who had failed to restore power six days after it went out. He is planning to install a wood-burning stove, because, as he said, “This’ll happen again.”
In Dallas, Tumaini Criss spent the weekend worried that she would not be able to afford a new home for her and her three sons after a leaky pipe caved in her ceiling and destroyed appliances and furniture. “I don’t know where that leaves me,” she said.
In San Antonio, Juan Flores, a 73-year-old Navy veteran, told my colleague Giulia McDonnell Nieto del Rio that he was frustrated by the lack of communication from local officials. When Giulia interviewed Flores, he had not showered in days (and graciously warned her to stand back while interviewing him, saying, “I stink”). To get enough water to flush his toilet, he had walked to a bar. To heat his apartment, he was boiling water on his stove.



The second threat is related to climate change but different. It comes from the possibility that alternative energy sources like wind and solar power are becoming cheap enough to shrink Texas’ oil and gas industry.
“The cost advantage of solar and wind has become decisive, and promises to become vaster still,” Noah Smith, an economist and Texas native, wrote in his Substack newsletter. “I don’t want to see my home state become an economic backwater, shackled to the corpse of a dying fossil fuel age.”
Instead of investing adequately in new energy forms, though, many Texas politicians have tried to protect fossil fuels. Last week, Gov. Greg Abbott went so far as to blame wind and solar energy — falsely— for causing the blackouts. The main culprit was the failure of natural gas, as these charts by my colleague Veronica Penney show.
As Smith explains, the best hope for Texas’ energy industry is probably to embrace wind and solar power, not to scapegoat them. The state, after all, gets plenty of wind and sun. “Texas can be the future, instead of fighting the future,” Smith wrote.


The larger economic story here is a common one. Companies — and places — that have succeeded for decades with one technology rarely welcome change. Kodakdidn’t encourage digital photography, and neither The New York Times nor The Wall Street Journal created Craigslist.
Texas’ political and business leaders have made a lot of successful moves in recent decades. They have avoided some of the political sclerosis that has held back parts of the Northeast and California, like zoning restrictions that benefit aging homeowners at the expense of young families.
But Texas’ leaders are sacrificing the future for the present in a different way. They have helped their fossil fuel companies maximize short-term profits at the expense of the state’s long-term well-being. They have resisted regulation and investments that could have made their power grid more resilient to severe weather (as this Times story documents), and have tried to wish away climate change even as it forces Texans to endure more miserable weather.
In those ways, Texas is offering a different — and more worrisome — glimpse into the future.
By metmike - Feb. 22, 2021, 3:08 p.m.
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TX was hit so hard BECAUSE they were preparing for climate change.....not because they were NOT prepared for climate change. 


17% of the power now comes from wind.

Edit, 3-1-21: Apparently they relied on up to 30% of power generation from wind just prior to this event and during the bitter cold with wind turbines not Winterized, that plunged to 8%.

 By far, the most of any state. They did not Winterize the wind turbines or natural gas/fossil fuel systems BECAUSE they thought cold like this was not possible anymore with global warming. The wind turbines could have been Winterized and we would have avoided the worst of this but the green energy mentality that ignores the fact that cold kills 15 times more humans than heat and 200 times more life than heat is what led to this. And the assumption that we couldn't have cold like this anymore because of all the exaggerated forecasts for warmth.

https://howmuch.net/articles/wind-power-in-the-united-states-2018

States Produce the Most Wind Energy






https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Texas



Wind power in Texas - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
By metmike - Feb. 28, 2021, 2:19 a.m.
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“Wind was operating almost as well as expected”… A Texas-sized Energy Lie


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/25/wind-was-operating-almost-as-well-as-expected-a-texas-sized-energy-lie/


Even with all of the system-wide failures, natural gas is the only reason that this energy disaster didn’t claim hundreds, if not thousands, of lives.  Winter Storm Younger Dryas will probably surpass Hurricane Harvey as the most expensive natural disaster in Texas history and ERCOT was possibly  within five minutes of it being possibly the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history when they began load-shedding.


Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez@AOC

·

"The infrastructure failures in Texas are quite literally what happens when you *don’t* pursue a Green New Deal."


metmike: 100% exactly wrong. Texas did not get caught because they were not ready for climate change(the coming fake crisis). They got caught BECAUSE they were preparing for the fake climate crisis. 


For one time, why can't this lady tell the truth??

By metmike - Feb. 28, 2021, 2:26 a.m.
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This is the indisputable  proof.:




In February 2021, prior to Winter Storm Younger Dryas, wind accounted for 30% of ERCOT’s electricity generation…



During Winter Storm Younger Dryas, wind dropped off to 8% of ERCOT electricity generation, while natural gas more than doubled as a percentage of ERCOT electricity generation…


By metmike - March 1, 2021, 8:45 p.m.
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Texas “Wind was operating almost as well as expected” – Part Deux

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/01/texas-wind-was-operating-almost-as-well-as-expected-part-deux/

Setting the Stage

 

Why was Texas, ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) in particular, so unprepared for the onslaught of frigid weather?  This was NOAA’s February temperature outlook map, released on January 31, 2021:

 

“A reminder: the climate outlook maps are not a forecast for the absolute temperature or precipitation amounts in February. Instead, they are the probability (percent chance) that February temperatures or precipitation will be in the upper, middle, or lower third of the climatological record (1981-2010) for February (note: the climatological record will shift to 1991-2020 later this year).” NOAA

 

 20 days later, this was NOAA’s map of the number of hours below freezing for the week of Feb. 12-19, 2021:

 

  

 

In less than a week, we went from an outlook for about normal February temperatures to the forecast of an ice storm and then “the worst winter weather conditions seen locally in decades (if not on record)”… Radical would be an understatement.

By metmike - March 1, 2021, 9:14 p.m.
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                february 8, 2021 weather            

            

                29 responses |            

                Started by metmike - Feb. 8, 2021, 1:50 p.m.            

                    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/65392/                    

Fantastic February to you! 


Coldest blast in a couple of years on the way! numerous snow/ice events along the ohio river the next 10 days!

edit: Coldest in decades for TX with snow/ice!

moderation expected late february is helping drive ng prices(lower)....containing the bulls....today at least.



Reasons to continue to keep being thankful here in 2021!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/


NEW: COVID peaked a month ago!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/63690/


 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.

Most maps below will automatically update each day(not the snow map).


the maps below do not show the areas of ice that WILL fall, just south of the heavier snow!

Total Snow for the next 1 week and 2 weeks from the 12z Monday GFS Ensemble model.

Weather Model

Weather Model


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/65639/


                February 14, weather            

                            18 responses |       

                Started by metmike - Feb. 14, 2021, 1:07 p.m.            

                                        

Happy Valentines Day! 

Roses are Red, Violets are Blue..............here is your Wild Winter Weather Review!

Coldest blast in  years for some places. 2 main snow/ice events this week.

Edit: Coldest in decades for TX with snow/ice!

Moderation expected late February ........containing the natural gas bulls today.



Reasons to continue to keep being thankful here in 2021!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/


COVID peaked over a month ago!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/63690/


Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.

Most maps below will automatically update each day(not the snow map).


the maps below do not show the areas of ice that WILL fall, just south of the heavier snow!

Total Snow for this week from the 12z Sunday GFS Ensemble model.

Weather Model


By metmike - March 6, 2021, 4:25 p.m.
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After extreme cold events in 1989 and 2011, Texas was warned to winterize power plants — but many still froze in the latest storms

https://www.insider.com/texas-warned-to-winterize-power-plants-after-past-cold-events-2021-2

  • The event was not unprecedented, as Texas power plants have been disrupted by cold weather before.

                        

  • Following disruptions in 2011, federal regulators again warned Texas to winterize its power plants.
  • In 2011, federal regulators were already critical of the state's lack of winterizing facilities when it was clear it was needed.
    A report prepared by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, a federal agency, and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a nonprofit, examined electric and natural gas disruptions across the Southwest during the 2011 cold weather event.
    It found 210 power generating units under the jurisdiction of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas experienced an outage or disruption over a few days in February 2011, affecting 3.2 million people. ERCOT, a nonprofit, still oversees the state's electrical grid.
    The authors of the report also determined that, while especially severe, the 2011 cold event was not without precedent. They found there had been several instances of severe cold weather impacting power prior to 2011, particularly in 1989.                        
                                                                           
    The report said that in that year, following the power disruptions caused by cold weather, the Public Utility Commission of Texas recommended several actions to ensure power plants could withstand extreme weather. Those actions included yearly reviews to check for cold-weather preparedness, maintaining proper insulation, and employee training for cold weather emergency situations.
    However, those actions were not mandatory, and more than two dozen of the generators that failed in 1989 failed again in 2011. The report criticized the repeated failures and the fact that power plants were not required to prepare for cold weather following the 1989 event.
    ERCOT has yet to announce which generators failed during this week's severe storms, though they have said that information will be released after a review, local outlet WFFA reported.
    The 2011 report also said that while power generators and natural gas producers implemented some winterizing procedures, "the poor performance" of many of them "suggests that these procedures were either inadequate or were not adequately followed."
  • In the report's key findings, the authors said the lack of any direct requirement for power plants to winterize "left winter-readiness dependent on plant or corporate choices."
    It also noted that while the severe winter storms are less common in the Southwest than other places, when they do occur, "the cost in terms of dollars and human hardship is considerable."