KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 19, 2021
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 460.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 983.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 635.4K)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 59.0; previous 59.1)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 58.0; previous 57.5)
10:00 AM ET. January Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 6.66M; previous 6.76M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -1.5%; previous +0.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (expected 1.9)
Median Price (USD) (expected 309800)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +12.9%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
Monday, February 22, 2021
8:30 AM ET. January CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.52)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.61)
10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 109.5)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. February Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 7.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 4.6)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight following a three-day decline.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,503.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,900.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,503.79. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,068.88.
The March S&P 500 was steady to modestly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3857.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3959.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3857.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3782.18.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off August's high, a test of the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 157-20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 165-24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-09. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 163-17. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 157-20.
March T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 27th high, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 134.305 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.238 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.114. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.238. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 135.150. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 134.305.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $56.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.48. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $58.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $56.19.
April heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $185.04. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $176.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.69.
April unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $192.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $182.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.40.
April Henry natural gas was lower overnight following Thursday's key reversal down as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.807 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the October-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.060. Second resistance is the October-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.906. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.807.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off last-Friday's high, the January 21st low crossing at $90.03 is the next downside target. If March resumes this week's rally, February's high crossing at $91.61 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $91.05. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $91.61. First support is the January 21st low crossing at $90.03. Second support is January's low crossing at $89.16.
The March Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this week's decline, February's low crossing at $119.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.68. Second resistance is the January 22 high crossing at $122.03. First support is February's low crossing at $119.60. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3771 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.4010. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3771. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3626.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off Tuesday's high, February's low crossing at 1.1064 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1265 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 1.1331. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.1122. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.1064.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $79.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $79.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.47. Second support is January's low crossing at $77.63.
The March Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0954 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, last-August's low crossing at 0.0938 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0954. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0961. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0942. Second support is last-August's low crossing at 0.0938.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30. is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1826.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1809.10. Second resistance is 20-day moving average crossing at $1826.50. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1759.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30.
March silver was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.123 would confirm that a top has been posted. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $28.075 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $28.075. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.350. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.123. Second support is the January 27th low crossing at $24.715.
March copper was higher overnight it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.2967 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6812 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.9870. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.2967. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.7869. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6812.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to fractionally lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.13 1/2 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.74 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.24 3/4. Second support is the the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.13 1/2.
March wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the February 10th low, the January 27th high crossing at $6.72 3/4. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.37 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the January 27th high crossing at $6.72 3/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.37 1/2. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $6.24 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.07 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at $6.04 1/2. Second support is the January 8th low crossing at $5.87 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the symmetrical triangle, which has formed over the past two months. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.38 would signal an upside breakout of the symmetrical triangle thereby opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.38. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at crossing at $6.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were steady to higher overnight as they extend the trading range of the past five-weeks.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.21 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $14.09 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.21 3/4. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $12.98.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $443.70 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $424.90 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $4.01.60. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $443.70. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $424.90. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.
March soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 47.64. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 42.71.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.03 at $84.93.
April hogs closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $87.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $82.78. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.68.
April cattle closed down $1.23 at $122.93
April cattle closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.08 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.00 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off October's low, the December-2019 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $127.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $126.70. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at $127.90. First support is February's low crossing at $121.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.00.
April Feeder cattle closed down $1.00 at $140.75.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $147.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40. First support is February's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at 13.38 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 12.09 is the next downside target.
May cocoa posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Wednesday's breakout and close below the December 22nd low crossing at 24.09 mark a downside breakout of the December-February-trading range and the resumption of the decline off November's high. If May extends Wednesday's decline, the November 12th low crossing at 23.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday and posted a new contract high as it extends the rally off last-April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.49 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 89.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.