almost every chart shows gold going down the fist 2 weeks of march. mid march seems to be an important turning point.
but remember, we don't always follow the seasonal averages.
at some point soon, gold shares should turn up, if the market thinks gold is close to a bottom.
we'll see soon.
bear,
Seasonal strength doesn't really pick up for another 5+ months......but as you mentioned, there are many other factors and each year is different.
http://www.321gold.com/charts/seasonal_gold.html