INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 26, 2021, 4:20 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, March 1, 2021 



9:45 AM ET. February US Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (previous 59.2)



10:00 AM ET. February ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI



                       Manufacturing PMI (previous 58.7)



                       Prices Idx (previous (previous 82.1)



                       Employment Idx (previous 52.6)



                       Inventories (previous 50.8)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 61.1)



                       Production Idx (previous 60.7)



10:00 AM ET. January Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place



                       New Construction (previous +1.0%)



                       Residential Construction



11:00 AM ET. February Global Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg    



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,863.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow resumes the rally off February's low into uncharted territory, upside targets hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 32,009.64. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,863.07. Second support is January's low crossing at 29,856.30. 

 

The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline but remains below the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,132.79. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, January's low crossing at 12,491.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,444.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,444.55. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,900.50. First support is today's low crossing at 12,662.25. Second support is January's low crossing at 12,491.25.   



The March S&P 500 closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3801.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is February's high crossing at 3959.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3801.61. Second support is February's low crossing at 3656.50.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed up 2-11/32's at 160-19.

  

June T-bonds closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off November's high, the January-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 161-11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-24. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 157-20. Second support is the January-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 155-05.



June T-notes closed up 185-pts. At 132.245.



June T-notes posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the January 27th high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 131.278 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.003 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.064. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.003. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 131.310. Second support is the the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 131.278.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $58.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $63.81. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $61.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $58.67.  



April heating oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of  the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $176.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $191.30. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of  the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $183.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average  crossing at $176.67.  



April unleaded gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of is recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $182.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $198.76. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 191.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $182.78.    



April Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.713 confirm a trend change while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.898 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.898. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.060. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.713. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.596.  



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, February's high crossing at 91.61 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing 89.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 17th high crossing at 91.05. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 91.60. First support is Thursday's low crossing 89.67. Second support is January's low crossing at 89.16.  



The March Euro closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.01 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the February 17th low crossing at 120.29 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February-decline crossing at 122.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February-decline crossing at 122.69. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February-decline crossing at 123.18. First support is the February 17th low crossing at 120.29. Second support is February's low crossing at 119.60.  



The March British Pound closed lower for the second day in a row on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3860 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness. If March resumes the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4577 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.4245. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4577. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3860. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3700. 

 

The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off Tuesday's high, the November 23rd low crossing at 1.0972 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1145 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1145. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1241. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0990. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at 1.0972. 



The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday confirming yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 80.21. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.58. Second support is January's low crossing at77.63. 



The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0934 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0949 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0949. Second resistance is the February 10th high crossing at 0.0958. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0937. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0934.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed sharply lower for the fourth session in a row on Friday as it posted its largest monthly decline since November-2016 as this month's sharp rise in government bond yields killed demand for gold.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1809.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1809.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1949.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70.



May silver closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.513 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, February's high crossing at 30.350 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 30.350. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.513. Second support is January's low crossing at 24.095. 



May copper closed sharply lower on Friday following yesterday's downside reversal as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 383.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off March's low, the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 454.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 437.55. Second resistance is the the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 454.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 404.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 383.72.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May Corn closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at $5.47 1/2. 



May corn closed lower on Friday but off session lows due to bullish South America weather. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are  possible near-term. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.14 is the next downside target. Closes above February's high crossing at $5.72 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.12 3/4.     



May wheat closed down $0.15 1/2-cents at $6.60 1/4.  



May wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.56 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at $6.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.56 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.46 1/2.        



May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.18 3/4-cents at $6.33 3/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.36 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.19 1/2 is the next downside target. If May resumes this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $6.64. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.19 1/2. Second support is February's low crossing at $6.08 1/4.       



May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.11 3/4-cents at $6.38 3/4. 



May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.38 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $6.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at crossing at $6.62. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.77. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.38 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.23.     

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans closed down $0.03 1/4-cents at $14.04 1/4.



May soybeans closed lower on Friday following yesterday's key reversal down following this week's disappointing export sales report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $14.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $14.33. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $14.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.44 3/4.



May soybean meal closed down $1.60 to $421.40. 



May soybean meal closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below January's low crossing at $413.40 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the February 9th high crossing at $442.10 would signal an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $442.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. First support is January's low crossing at $413.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90.      



May soybean oil closed up 27 pts. at 49.94. 



May soybean oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 53.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 46.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 50.95. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 53.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 47.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 46.06.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $2.60 at $89.15. 



April hogs closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $90.68. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.99. 



April cattle closed down $1.68 at $120.00 



April cattle closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.97 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.97. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $126.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at $119.86. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72. 



April Feeder cattle closed down $2.50 at $142.58. 


April Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn  neutral to bearish with additional weakness the would signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $142.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $147.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $145.80. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. First support is February's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.         



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at 14.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        



May cocoa closed slightly higher for the third day in a row on Friday as it extended the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 26.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.          



May sugar closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off last-April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 18.42 is the next upside target.     



May cotton gapped down and closed lower on Friday following yesterday's huge key reversal down signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off April's low, the June-2018 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 96.50 is the next upside target.      

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 26, 2021, 8:45 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!