@kannbwx

#Corn export inspections remain strong. The prior week's volume was revised up 25% to 2.05 mmt, which might be an all-time record for any week or very close to it. #Soybeans in prior week were revised up 14% to 1 mmt, high for the week.

Probably explains todays strong price increase

Much has been said about supply and demand

I get it when exports are higher than usual , this would be demand

But when do we call a market supply driven

I don't suppose we can have both or can we??

I don't know if I already posted this from SA or not??? some other place on the forum

This is the reason why I wonder about supply driven??

We know China will buy what they want and pay the price. We also know why china will buy. Does this give us a supply driven market for the rest of those wanting grain. What is different from supply and demand markets when stks are low???

I will report what I have read and let you decide

Reports out of Brazil indicate severe flooding in high production areas of Brazil just when they need to harvest. There were some reports earlier and the consensus was the crop would be harvested. Well, now it seems to be much more serious with much more acres/hectares flooded. Combines stuck in mud, or not even venturing in the field, corn planters sitting in water. Granted, not everybody has a problem harvesting and even if late planting of corn, some thing will be harvested from the Safrina corn crop

Agronomists on the ground in Brazil say anybody that thinks Brazil will produce more than last yr is simply not aware of what is happening. The Ag media has not done much reporting other than local reports. It seems Argentina is still in drought. The folks are hoping the rains will stop and the ground will dry out. Even so, cattle are being moved to higher ground, which must be serious as cattle can move around but if they can't get out of the water then a lot of acres must be flooded. They don't call the newly developed  crop land a rain forest for no reason.

Reminds me of China crop problems, although china would not say anything regardless. This time in SA the local media is reporting on conditions as they see it. One person said an area 100 kilometers in radius from his homestead was all flooded

Take this for what you think it is worth

Thanks Wayne,

Yes, you did report your bullish Brazil flooding news earlier today in the US growing season forecast thread. 

It’s ok if you want to repeat it here again. I get it, producers want everybody to know the bullish news.

It might have been best to post it under the SA weather thread or even the corn\beans thread or the opening call thread.

@kannbwx

Total U.S. #ethanol shipments perked up in January for the first time since early 2020 when the pandemic began. ADM reported in January that #China had secured 757M liters of the U.S. biofuel for the first half of 2021. That would top 2016's annual record.

@kannbwx

USA shipped 85.9M liters of #ethanol to #China in January, up 81% from December and the largest for any month since Feb. 2018. That was 14% of total January exports of 623M liters, a record for the month.

@kannbwx

U.S. #corn exports to #China in 2020/21 have officially broken the full marketing year record of 5.15 mmt set in 2011/12. January exports marked the 4th consecutive volume above 1 mmt, bringing the Sep-Jan total to 5.99 mmt (236 mln bu).

@kannbwx

USA corn and soy exports were rocking in January with a record 14.6 mmt (553 mln bu).

#Corn 5.8 mmt (229 mbu) +58% on 5yr Jan avg Short of Jan 1990 record (6.06 mmt) 19% to #China

#Soybeans 8.8 mmt (324 mbu) Jan record by 25% +52% on 5yr Jan avg 62% to China

@kannbwx

USA exported $3.99B worth of ag & related goods to #China in January, a record for the month but the smallest since Sept. 2020. #Soybeans accounted for 64%, #corn 6%. Phase 1 calls for China's 2021 U.S. ag imports to be ~81% above 2017 levels. Jan 21 rose 49% over Jan 17.

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

@kannbwx

Export sales were strong versus expectations for #soybeans and #wheat, but weak for #corn. For new crop, 213kt soy and 287kt corn were sold. 

#China bought a cargo each of old/new crop #sorghum, and they also bought 10.7kt of #pork.