Slightly higher open for corn and beans. SX then dipped to the 879.75 low, a tick oower than the close on Friday, then bounced to the 884 high.
CZ spiked to the 374 high during the first minute, then sold off to the 371 low, 20 minutes after the open, also down 1 tick from the Friday close.
Corn just up a fraction at the moment and SX up 3c.
USDA acreage and stocks from Friday:
USDA 6/29 Estimate USDA 3/30
Corn acres 89.128 88.372 88.026
Bean acres 89.557 89.789 88.982
all Wheat 47.821 47.122 47.339
Winter wheat 32.732 32.718 32.708
Spring wheat 13.202 12.413 12.627
Durum wheat 1.887 2.017 2.004
Seemed bearish corn to me(higher acres than trade expected) but corn finished +5c.
Bean acres seemed slightly bullish to me(lower acres than trade expectations) but beans finished on the lows.
CZ is currently trading around 56c lower than the highs a month ago. The lows for this move occurred on June 19th, when we had the extreme spike down to 360.
SX is currently trading around 1.76 lower than the highs a month ago. The lows for this move occurred on June 19th, when we had the extreme spike lower to 864.5
Nobody thought that we could fall so far, this fast.
The extended weather turned bullish a week ago and in most Summers would have caused prices to go higher last week. However, with soil moisture over abundant in a large, key area, the first week of dry weather in the extended was actually seen as beneficial.
Also, the funds have gone from a huge long position to being short. They can control the price when they pile it on in the same direction. The China trade war situation is also weighing heavy on the beans.
In addition, seasonals are very negative at this time of year when the crop is not facing serious adversity. Crop ratings are near the best ever for late June.
Crop condition/ratings from last Monday Afternoon:
Nothing noteworthy regarding changes but it's a huge deal that they are this high at this time of year.
Corn -1% to 77% gd/ex
beans unch at 73% gd/ex
Spring Wheat 77% gd/ex -1% from last week.
Oats 72% +2%
Cotton 42% gd/ex +4% Cotton 19% P/VP -7% from last week, WOW!
The most bearish "weather" thing for corn at the moment is that some of the models have backed the most intense heat farther west.
However, the southwest Cornbelt is going to have some high heat with this pattern and it looks like most of the belt if going to keep getting drier as the month goes on.
Is this bullish enough for us to go higher?
Soils are very wet in many places and corn will have plenty of moisture for pollination and early filling............as long as intense heat does not last more than a few days and is not belt wide.
Corn and heat fill:
Rode thru a good chunk of central Mn. today and saw a lot of standing water and severely stunted corn and soybean fields with huge areas of completely drowned out crops. The number 4 corn producing state of Mn. will definitely not be that this year.
You will find the comprehensive weather outlook right here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/6607/
Note that the extended maps(6-10 day/8-14 day) are hot. Why isn't this more bullish (especially corn) tonight?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
One reason is that models are LESS hot than they were last week.
The last solution of the European model is BEARISH and much cooler after day 11. The map below is for July 13th.
However, this is just one solution and it looks pretty likely that even with the heat ridge in a position farther west, we will be drying out. ...............so the onslaught of selling pressure from massive rain events, one after another over the past month, will probably let up.
This is actually an excellent buying set up on weather for corn and beans......but not quite on these current maps.
Most of the models must shift the heat ridge/dome farther northeast in week 2 than they have it.
Below is the last 500 mb chart from the 18z GFS ensemble mean for 240 hours, 312 hours, then 384 hours(the last map).
On that last map, the 594 decameter closed contour is impressive but we need it to cover Iowa.........not be so far southwest of IA.
Day 10 below(240 hours below):
Forecast Hour: 312 hours below
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/18/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_312_500_vort_ht.gif
Forecast Hour: 384 hours below
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/18/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_384_500_vort_ht.gif
The upcoming pattern is in fact becoming more bullish(less bearish) than it has been but we need the "dome of death" to be at least 500, ideally 1,000 miles farther northeast of the predicted position on week 2 weather models...............then, I will have very high confidence that prices will go higher, possibly much higher if it defines the new pattern for the rest of Summer.
This is not my forecast, just the scenario needed to go long with high confidence.
Nice .9 of rain here will take us through pollination easily even with heat. ECILL
"Rode thru a good chunk of central Mn. today and saw a lot of standing water and severely stunted corn and soybean fields with huge areas of completely drowned out crops. The number 4 corn producing state of Mn. will definitely not be that this year."
Minnesota reported the corn to be 84% gd/ex a week ago. 2% poor, 0% very poor.
Minnesota reported the beans to be 79% gd/ex a week ago. 2% poor, 0% very poor.
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2618.txt
With all the rain
I suspect the market will want to see proof of damage before going higher
Sitting in Chicago or some place you have to think lots of rain will last for some time before real damage occurs
We have seen drought produce higher than expected yields
However the recent storms with green snap and hail don't seem to done much to price
Perhaps not enough in the big picture
We always have a problem some place
Drought, heat, hail, green snap, pp etc happens every yr.